WI: Napoleon exiled to Corfu instead?

[Halagaz]

Apparently Corfu was one of the islands considered for Napoleon's "retirement" by the leaders of the victorious Coalition. So what if they created a tiny state for him there, and not on Elba?

In this scenario, Napoleon would be ruler of a new Principality of Corfu (or, perhaps, ruler of the Ionian Islands as a whole). OTL's British protectorate over the Ionian Islands would not exist.

1. I assume there would be no Hundred Days nor temporary Bonapartist restoration. Is this a reasonable assumption? If so, what effect would this have on France and Europe?

2. Is it reasonable to assume Napoleon would live longer without the hardships he experienced on Saint Helena? Maybe even much longer?

3. Could Napoleon participate in the Greek War of Independence in some way?

 

[Fearless Leader]

I'm really not sure you could assume that Napoleon wouldn't try to escape. Whether or not he would succeed would be an entirely different question as it would be significantly harder to make the journey from Corfu rather than Elba. Should he be caught I'd imagine he'd still end up on St. Helena.

Should Napoleon choose in TTL not to escape, he might be tempted to participate in the Greek War of Independence. Should the Greeks accept his help it would surely doom their cause as I could see the Habsburgs and potentially all the other major European powers intervening to keep Napoleon from re-establishing himself on the geo-political stage. Napoleon's influence at that point becomes negligible as Greece simply cannot win their War of Independence without foreign aid.

 

[Juumanistra]

As Fearless Leader says, you can't assume Napoleon won't try to escape. And if things otherwise occur as OTL, then it's a fair bet he'll at least make the attempt, as the political preconditions exist to allow for the Hundred Days to happen TTL. (Whether or not he actually succeeds -- or even survives the attempt -- are another matter entirely.)

I think, though, if you want to jigger the pieces of the geopolitical scene with one (or more) PoDs, Napoleon's "retirement" to a political fixer-upper on the fringes of Europe is not an unreasonable outcome, though likely a low-probability event. Given he died when only 51, it wouldn't be unreasonable to have him live a decade or more without St. Helena. Maybe two, if you want to really push it. So he could certainly be around for the numerous interesting events that'd shake the Balkans in the years after his OTL death. I doubt he'd have enough leash to be involved in any appreciative way, though, as any kind of princely retirement to a backwater is going to include a commandment of Thou Shalt Not Intrigue In Geopolitics and have gobs of Coalition/Congress observers to ensure whatever the backwater is minds its own business and its own alone.

Still, Corfu as the best-administered state in the Eastern Mediterranean from a decade or two of Napoleon is an amusing concept. Especially if it really does just keep to itself and strives to avoid being hit by Ottomans' death throes.

 

[Vitruvius]

I would think that the allies would be concerned about locating Napoleon just across the Strait of Otranto from Murat's Kingdom of Naples. I'm not sure that he would actually try to escape there given Murat's behavior OTL, seems like he'd risk Murat capturing him and handing him back to the allies but still the idea of Napoleon at the head of a Neapolitan army marching north out of Italy would seem like a quit a risk for the allies. I suppose if they do go through with it the British retain the other Ionian Islands as a base from which to keep an eye on him.

 

[Juumanistra]

I would think that the allies would be concerned about locating Napoleon just across the Strait of Otranto from Murat's Kingdom of Naples. I'm not sure that he would actually try to escape there given Murat's behavior OTL, seems like he'd risk Murat capturing him and handing him back to the allies but still the idea of Napoleon at the head of a Neapolitan army marching north out of Italy would seem like a quit a risk for the allies. I suppose if they do go through with it the British retain the other Ionian Islands as a base from which to keep an eye on him.

Would it? Perhaps it's because I'm just finishing Swords Around A Throne, but the contempt for the Neapolitan army of the period and, the Kingdom of Naples in general, is both amazing and rings of truth, based upon later chronicles of the Italian Army's experience in WW1 and the recollections of American and British sources from the Italy campaigns in WW2. The Neapolitan Army outside of the Royal Guard was a threat to itself and no else, and the Guard were a hodgepodge of foreign mercenaries who did Murat's dirty work. And given that Murat had already sold out Napoleon once to save his own skin, so long as he felt it was in his best interests, his little kingdom would gladly be the great bulwark that kept Napoleon in his cage. And given what he did OTL in the Hundred Days, the more likely -- and interesting -- course of events would that Murat plays the role of intriguer extraordinaire to try and use the specter of a triumphantly returning Napoleon to get the Congress of Vienna to honor its prior commitments to let him keep the Kingdom of Naples. (And, if the threat won't do it, actually trying to engineer it for-reals.)

Though I doubt it'd be a terribly pressing concern for the Congress. As they were willing to let him have Elba as his own princely fiefdom, which was rather closer to both France and Italy than Corfu. The real trick with this type of TL is engineering a set of circumstances where Napoleon doesn't feel compelled to try to escape and initiate TTL's version of the Hundred Days, which means Louis XVIII actually honoring the financial terms of the Treaty of Fountainebleau and convincing Marie Louise to bring her son and join her husband in exile. As well as whatever other reasons you might be able to come up with if yo put your back into it.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I'd say Napoleon successfully escaping to France is now significantly less likely (in which case...).

 

[Vitruvius]

I'd agree that the Neapolitan army isn't a great threat. I was thinking more that the allies never really liked or trusted Murat, would they want to setup Napoleon right next to one of his former Marshals (and brother in law)? Obviously the bigger question is how to get Napoleon to stay put. As you said, aside from Napoleon's own motivations Murat and Caroline will be conniving and intriguing. Realistically I could see the later being more likely to invite Napoleon over, if she thought it would work to her an advantage of course.

 

[Juumanistra]

A random thought, as we're talking about Naples: Why not just cut out the middle man in Murat and just give Naples to Napoleon for his exile? It'd certainly solve the issues of his finances and (hopefully) keeping his family united. It's also 99.5% ASB, due to giving Napoleon any kind of state resources to play with being recognizable as a Bad Idea™ by the Congress, but it's fun to imagine them using Naples' infamous inhospitability to good governance and the rule of law as a kind of tiger trap to absorb the ambitions and energies of Napoleon. Because, even for all of his genius and energy, the Kingdom of Naples is almost certainly too much even for him. And on the off chance he succeeds in appreciably moving the needle, that has radical consequences for the Mediterranean during the Wars of Unification and the carving up of the Ottomans' empire.

 

[Halagaz]

It's certainly possible Napoleon would try to escape anyway, but it's not as likely. The route from Corfu to France is a much longer and more difficult one. And he'd be more isolated from the events in France and Europe in Corfu; he'd be receiving news less consistently, and with more of a delay.

It's also possible that carting Napoleon off to somewhere further away from France than Elba was would make Louis XVIII a bit more magnanimous with honoring the terms of Fontainebleau. Thus giving Napoleon an additional incentive to stay put.

As for the attitude of the European powers...meh. Russia, at least, saw the defeated Napoleon as a potential tool or even ally; not as some apocalyptic figure than needs to be isolated at all costs. So they wouldn't necessarily oppose his return into geopolitics (as long as it's not too ambitious). And they wouldn't necessarily withhold aid to the Greeks, in case Napoleon joins them.

 

[Mr_Fanboy]

Should Napoleon choose in TTL not to escape, he might be tempted to participate in the Greek War of Independence. Should the Greeks accept his help it would surely doom their cause as I could see the Habsburgs and potentially all the other major European powers intervening to keep Napoleon from re-establishing himself on the geo-political stage. Napoleon's influence at that point becomes negligible as Greece simply cannot win their War of Independence without foreign aid.

Okay, but also... Napoleonic Neo-Byzantine Empire, anyone?