WI Nixon Not Pardoned?

[Hannibal.Caesar]

WI Gerald Ford never pardoned Nixon for his crimes? How likely is it that he would have been fully impeached? Would he have actually served jail time?

What precedents would this set, having a US President theoretically go to prison for his actions during his sitting presidency?

 

[PaleHorseRiding]

That could never be allowed because then all the presidents since washington would be arrested and charged with crimes even if it was adultery

 

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

WI Gerald Ford never pardoned Nixon for his crimes? How likely is it that he would have been fully impeached? Would he have actually served jail time?

What precedents would this set, having a US President theoretically go to prison for his actions during his sitting presidency?

1. If impeachment was imminent, and Ford wasn't willing to pardon him, Nixon's lawyers had already suggested he pardon himself. Congress will be furious, but the Constitution doesn't explicitly forbid him doing it. The Supreme Court upholds it 7-2, and Congress starts work on an amendment to limit Presidential pardons in future.

2. If he doesn't pardon himself, and is impeached and convicted, IMHO he would've gotten probation, house arrest, or some other alternative sentencing. None of his crimes were violent offenses, and it would be impossible to guarantee his safety in prison (what are they gonna do, keep Secret Service agents in the cell with him?)

3. OTOH, if some judge really wants to make an example of him...

[FONT=Courier, Monospaced]
   Sep. 1st, 1975: NIXON ARRIVES AT ALCATRAZ 
 [/FONT][FONT=Courier, Monospaced]  API San Francisco, CA

   Once abandoned, the prison now holds a lone inmate. Former 
   President Nixon was brought yesterday to the island where 
   he will serve his five year sentence on federal charges of 
   bribery, conspiracy, and obstruction of justice. A dozen 
   Secret Service agents stand guard outside the refurbished 
   cell in the prison's "D" Block where [ more ... ][/FONT]

no doubt followed by

[FONT=Courier, Monospaced]  Sep 15th, 1975: [COLOR=black]NIXON[/COLOR] PLOT FOILED 
 [/FONT][FONT=Courier, Monospaced]  API San Francisco, CA 
   Only two weeks after former President [COLOR=black]Nixon's[/COLOR] incarceration, 
   the Secret Service arrested two women (identified as Lynette 
   Fromme and Sarah Jane Moore) attempting to land a small boat 
   on [COLOR=black]Alcatraz[/COLOR] Island. A search revealed numerous weapons and 
   a map of the cell block where [COLOR=black]Nixon[/COLOR] is being held. The FBI 
   is treating it as a foiled assassination plot since [more...] [/FONT]

 

[Electric Monk]

Ford wins in 1976, and the world is spared Jimmy Carter.

That might kill Reagan (Ford will have the same bad economy Carter did), and it does kill Mondale… in the electoral sense, of course. So the future Presidential contender line-up is quite a bit different.


Ford, actually, might restore a good deal of the public's confidence in the White House. Carter, clearly, was unable to run the government but Ford was. Quiet, though clumsy, competence might just be what the US needs.



As for 1980, it's quite interesting. Carter probably still wins in 1976, and then loses to Ford so he's out. However an open field means you don't need to be a Kennedy to run. Scoop Jackson may give it another try. Daniel Patrick Moynihan could give it a shot. Jerry Brown probably. Kennedy likely is the frontrunner, but isn't guaranteed the nomination by any means.

Republicans, Dole gets the edge because of the VP slot but he sucks at running campaigns. Bush? Reagan? I'm not so sure it matters, because it will probably be as big a Democratic year as it was a Republican year OTL. The Democrats take the Presidency, and strengthen their Congressional majorities. The Republicans don't get their Congressional class of 1980, though 1982 will probably be a good year for them.

That leaves the 1980s entirely different from our '80s, with consequent changes to America.

 

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

Ford wins in 1976, and the world is spared Jimmy Carter.

If Ford doesn't pardon Nixon, and makes Republicans sit through the huge, huge embarassment of an impeachment and trial, the GOP isn't going to reward him with the 1976 nomination. They will almost certainly pick Reagan instead.

 

[HueyLong]

If Ford doesn't pardon Nixon, and makes Republicans sit through the huge, huge embarassment of an impeachment and trial, the GOP isn't going to reward him with the 1976 nomination. They will almost certainly pick Reagan instead.

And a Republican will lose in '76. Whether Carter wins for the Dems isn't the only possibility. He was the "dark horse" peanut farmer.

 

[Fenwick]

Well Carter is given an even wider victory as President for the impeachment hearings take up much, if not all of the time of congress. So Ford simply sits in the oval office as the congress goes through month after month of dealing with the president. Say the thing takes up only a year, cause this is different then Clinton as there are many people involved and the thing may have the time table of a mafia trail more then anything else.

So no matter what Carter, or some outsider will have an easy time of simply holding up Nixon as why to vote Democrat. Of course America will suffer without Carter at the helm, but at least we could butterfly away Reagen.

 

[Electric Monk]

I think the country can better handle Nixon being punished than him getting away scot free directly because of Ford.

I really don't think Ford will take the hit you seem to think he'll take—especially because IOTL Ford made up a 30 point deficit and given a couple more days probably would have won.

The country flipped over the pardon, quite frankly, and it smashed Ford's solid ratings.



I'm not sure why you think Carter was good for America[1] or why you think that Nixon being impeached butterflies Reagan. After all if Carter wins he still gets stuck with the same horrible economy of OTL, and he's the still the same incompetent at running a government person.

If Ford wins, you have a much greater chance to both butterfly Reagan and save old-line conservatism of the balanced budget sensible foreign policy variety.




[1] I can note only two particular instances off the top of my head: deregulation & military reform.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Actually it is far more likely that Nixon is found not guilty, which may lead to some turmoil but also goes far to confirm that not being guilty is a very different standard from being fit to serve as president.

 

[Fenwick]

Actually it is far more likely that Nixon is found not guilty, which may lead to some turmoil but also goes far to confirm that not being guilty is a very different standard from being fit to serve as president.

Well the issue is that there was evidence of what Nixon did, and was connected to. So add that to a Democrat controlled congress and I wonder why Nixon would not be found guilty.

Without getting into a Carter debate, I do wonder just how the coveted Reagen would handle economic troubles, the oil crisis, and the hostage crisis any better then Carter.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Fenwick, because Congress has no say as to what happens in a criminal investigation? Congress can impeach but the pardon has nothing to do with impeachment.

 

[WCDouglas]

Well the issue is that there was evidence of what Nixon did, and was connected to. So add that to a Democrat controlled congress and I wonder why Nixon would not be found guilty.

Congress won't be involved, once President Nixon resigned, it becomes a criminal case(s) only. President Ford pardon (taken in consultion with the Congress leadership) was for any and all crime charges arising out of Watergate (I believe the pardon might have simply cover anything Nixon during the presidency but not sure).

And yes, many scholars and those who were there in 1974-75 believe that based on what evidence was had THEN Nixon would have either had the case thrown or been found not guilty (assuming you could find a unbiasis jury...)

Without getting into a Carter debate, I do wonder just how the coveted Reagen would handle economic troubles, the oil crisis, and the hostage crisis any better then Carter.

Search around the site "Reagan" & "1976" several threads dicussing a 1977-80 Reagan term.

 

[Electric Monk]

Without getting into a Carter debate, I do wonder just how the coveted Reagen would handle economic troubles, the oil crisis, and the hostage crisis any better then Carter.

He's not my coveted Reagan (are you sure you wanted "coveted"?), but I take your point. I'm no fan of Carter but even though I'd rank Reagan higher I have a lot of problems with him as well.

Anyway there's been a few Reagan beats Ford beats Carter becomes President in 1976 threads. See my post here for most of them, plus of course the thread that post is in.


My opinion, quickly, is that Reagan would have handled it about as well Carter—very good on a few issues, solid on others, some stumbles—but the key point is that Reagan could deal with Congress and that he was quite a bit better at running the government (or picking good staff, who then ran the government).

Although I think one could put together a somewhat better policy agenda of either the left or the right in the late '70s Carter's main problems were threefold: everything he wanted to pass was urgent, and so nothing was; he simply didn't know how to deal with Congress, and his Georgian Mafia weren't up to it either; in the realm of image Carter wasn't that great.

Reagan solves all three problems: great at image, solid ability to deal with Congress, and knew how to focus an agenda.


Overall, my best guess is that Reagan handles the tough times both a little better than Carter coupled with the appearance of handling the problems better than Carter and wins a close re-election fight against Kennedy or Brown or someone. (To be fair, he could easily lose the 1980 election given that it will still be tough times.)

 

[LineMountain]

Lets face it, Watergate was a fandango over a two bit burglary and Nixon wasnt going to be convicted of anything and quite frankly to drag that out over several years and through another Presidential election would not have served the country very well. Ford did the right anything and that is almost universally applauded in retrospect.

Also, during that infamous 18.5 minute gap on Nixons tapes it is believed they were talking about the FBI/CIA not wanting to open up a whole can of worms and it was implied they were talking about the Kennedy assassination so there were a lot of people who just wanted the whole ordeal to end and Nixon was just going to need to take it like a man.

As for Reagan, didnt the guy inherit much of the economic problems of the 70's? There was marked improvement his last two years but 1980-82 wasnt terribly better although there was increasing confidence and he won in a landslide in 1984.