WI Obama beat Hillary in 2008 New Hampshire primary

Pericles

What if Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton in the 2008 New Hampshire primary? The polls all showed Obama ahead by nearly 10 points, but Hillary Clinton instead won 39% to Obama's 36%, in a victory that temporarily revived her candidacy, and dragged out the 2008 Democratic primary to the very end. What if she lost, as she was expected to? IMO, that could easily be changed. If Hillary Clinton hadn't temporarily gone out of character and become emotional at a campaign stop, then she might not have won over late deciders and could have lost the primary. Then with two losses Nevada would likely have been lost, and she would have been crushed in South Carolina as per IOTL, and then drop out after Super Tuesday. What would be the effects of a different 2008 primary? How would Clinton's career be altered? How would the 2008 election and beyond be altered? What if?
 

Montgomerie Ward

I think she would still win the Nevada Democratic Caucus, because coming from New York, she had that big city appeal that attracted voters of southeast Nevada. She'll probably hang on after losing in South Carolina, hoping she could make a comeback in Super Tuesday. When that does not go the way she expecting, she'll see the hopelessness of persisting and suspend her campaign. Obama will still offer her a cabinet position (definitely not Secretary of State, but possibly Secretary of Health and Human Services or Attorney General) in order to make peace with the Clintons, which she does not accept. Clinton returns to the Senate and gets reelected to a third term in November 2012.

Obama will be able to campaign for the November election earlier. Because the bitter and vitriolic primary season between Obama and Clinton is butterflied, the chances of McCain still selecting Palin are considerable, but less likely. If he wants a game-changing running mate as OTL who could steal the female vote, he could alternatively ask Carly Fiorina or Olympia Snowe. Or else he'll select one of his more "liberal" moderate finalists on his shortlist, such as, Tom Ridge, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, or Joe Lieberman.
 

Montgomerie Ward

Pericles said:
What would be the effects of a McCain/Romney ticket? And Hillary not being secretary of State?
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Hillary Clinton not serving as Secretary of State will be better for her presidential campaign for 2016, because she'd be separated from the email controversy and from Libya.

A McCain/Romney Ticket is sort of healing for conservatives disappointed by McCain and probably gives Romney a boost in 2012. It's unlikely, however, because like a Clinton-Obama or Obama-Clinton 'Dream Ticket', there is too much bitterness and vitriol between the two.
 

Montgomerie Ward

Alternatively, Mitt Romney could be brought down in 2012 for being associated with the losing 'liberal' ticket with John McCain, especially after his pro-choice views from the past are brought to light. The Republican nomination of 2012 could go to someone more conservative, such as Rick Perry or Rick Santorum.
 

Pericles

Maybe if Hillary is not SoS she doesn't regain the establishment support she shed in the 2008 campaign and instead the Democratic establishment moves on from her. It was quite surprising that the older generation, the fallen establishment figures managed a comeback, even if that comeback was so inevitable for so long that it no longer seemed surprising she got to that position. 2016 could be an open field, and all sorts of figures, such as Cory Booker, Deval Patrick, Al Franken, all sorts of candidates forced out by Hillary's 'inevitability'.

Or maybe she is even stronger.
 

Montgomerie Ward

Pericles said:
2016 could be an open field, and all sorts of figures, such as Cory Booker, Deval Patrick, Al Franken, all sorts of candidates forced out by Hillary's 'inevitability'.

Or maybe she is even stronger.
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Don't forget about OTL's Bernie Sanders.

I think she would regain the establishment support, simply because of her last name and the two being seen as Washington 'Insiders'. The older generation flocked to her because they were wary of the fact that Sanders was a Democratic "Socialist", which made them take the cautious route. Not only did some of them think the terms socialism and communism are interchangeable, they feared that his far left positions were too extreme and potentially a turn off for independent voters oriented towards the center.
 
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