Just a little idea that had been going around through my head.
During the Dutch-Portuguese War of 1598-1663, the Dutch managed to replace the Portuguese in roughly half of the former State of India. What if they had taken roughly the other half instead?
I think there is actually a surprisingly expedient way of achieving this. Let's say the Dutch succeed in capturing the Island of Mozambique in 1607 or 1608. This would increase both their motivation and means to threaten Portuguese India. Let's say they capture Goa within 1-2 decades. This would lead them to use exactly the Portuguese route and replace the Portuguese exactly where they used to trade primarily.
Under this situation, they would be a lot less pressed to capture Malacca, and also have less resources to commit to multiple attacks on that city due to having to defend their new possessions in the western Indian ocean. Let's say that they give up after a couple of failed attempts and Malacca stays Portuguese.
Portugal adapts to using the Brouwer route and shifts the center of power of its Asian empire to the Indonesian archipelago.
Some points for discussion:
During the Dutch-Portuguese War of 1598-1663, the Dutch managed to replace the Portuguese in roughly half of the former State of India. What if they had taken roughly the other half instead?
I think there is actually a surprisingly expedient way of achieving this. Let's say the Dutch succeed in capturing the Island of Mozambique in 1607 or 1608. This would increase both their motivation and means to threaten Portuguese India. Let's say they capture Goa within 1-2 decades. This would lead them to use exactly the Portuguese route and replace the Portuguese exactly where they used to trade primarily.
Under this situation, they would be a lot less pressed to capture Malacca, and also have less resources to commit to multiple attacks on that city due to having to defend their new possessions in the western Indian ocean. Let's say that they give up after a couple of failed attempts and Malacca stays Portuguese.
Portugal adapts to using the Brouwer route and shifts the center of power of its Asian empire to the Indonesian archipelago.
Some points for discussion:
- How would a Dutch Goa interact with the Marathas? Would they have the same wars against them as the Portuguese.
- Assuming that the Dutch conquests in Portuguese India includes the Seven Islands of Bombay, this butterflies their transfer to England as part of the Dowry of Catherine of Braganza. How does that affect the development of British India?
- After trying and failing to recover Mozambique, would Portugal try to colonize the Cape as a replacement, or would they be content with just going straight from Angola to Malacca?
- Seeing as the islamization of the Indonesian archipelago was by no means complete at this time and it continued throughout the Dutch period IOTL, how would Portuguese top-down Catholicism affect the religious landscape of the region? Would we see more catholic-majority areas? If yes, which?
- Using the Brouwer route, the Portuguese would likely visit Australia at some point. Would they colonize it? In addition to providing sandalwood that could be sold in China, Australia would also be in an ideal position ITTL to be the much-desired "breadbasket of Portuguese Asia," providing food to Malacca and other possessions.
- Would the Dutch still show up in Formosa or Japan? If no, it's likely that the Tokugawa would not have expelled the Portuguese, so they would continue to trade in Nagasaki under the same conditions as the Dutch IOTL. Formosa would likely end up Spanish for a while, then either Koxinga takes it as OTL or it eventually becomes an extension of the Philippines.
Last edited: