WI: The Conspiracy to Assassinate Julius Caesar Also Went After and Killed Mark Antony?
- Thread starter Putnam
- Start date
I would argue that the assassins did more to kill the Republic as an idea then Caesar, because once you set the precedent for dealing with your political disagreements in that way everyone has to play the game or be killed. Civil Wars can be packaged as honorable disagreements where the winner as Caesar did allows the losing side to keep their heads and stay a major part of the Roman political system. Not so much for backstabbing which leads to purges and alot more backstabbing.
A king in all but name was going to arise after who is impossible to say. Octavian if he didn't get put to the sword was always a possibility as he was a great politician though crappy general.
A king in all but name was going to arise after who is impossible to say. Octavian if he didn't get put to the sword was always a possibility as he was a great politician though crappy general.
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If the conspirators go so far so as to kill Antony, they'd probably kill Lepidus as well. They'd more or less have won at that point; Octavian would be in no position to take over.
No reason for killing also Lepidus, who was likely to collaborate considering his personality and his matrimonial ties to Brutus and Cassius (as he was their brother-in-law)
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I'm not so sure about the consequences. A number of the conspirators had to go to the provinces take their assigned positions, where a number of them would have been in charge of troops who had fought under Cesar and Antonius and adored them both, though for different reasons. So a number of the conspirators may well have been received in their provinces with a blade between the shoulders or ribs...
Meanwhile Octavian was in Greece, with an army that would be loyal to him, especially if Caesar's will is read and made public in some way. So he would be in an excellent position to launch an expedition against Rome in the way of Scylla.
Another actor in such a scenario is Sextus Pompey, with his large fleet of pirates, who could try to make a comeback in Rome as Lepidus (assuming he survives) has other things to do than hunt him, thus making him free to play such a gamble.
So it could really go "interesting" ways
Meanwhile Octavian was in Greece, with an army that would be loyal to him, especially if Caesar's will is read and made public in some way. So he would be in an excellent position to launch an expedition against Rome in the way of Scylla.
Another actor in such a scenario is Sextus Pompey, with his large fleet of pirates, who could try to make a comeback in Rome as Lepidus (assuming he survives) has other things to do than hunt him, thus making him free to play such a gamble.
So it could really go "interesting" ways
Well, for one, Lepidus would be left alone in Rome, the sole de facto leader of the Caesarians in Rome for the moment and in command of one legion. Without Antony's moves to broker a compromise in order to gain time for himself and consolidate his position, Lepidus would probably carry out his more ruthless plan and attempt to put down the conspirators. Perhaps some of the conspirators would be arrested while the rest (perhaps the majority) manage to escape - for the moment. Lepidus, now dominating the city, probably forces a wary Senate to recognise Caesar's death as murder, declare the conspirators enemies of the people, and elect dependable Caesarians in the positions of those who would have been stripped of titles and offices by the aforementioned measures; at the same time, he would probably try to prevent the outbreak of a new civil war, by trying to keep the remaining Pompeian partisans in Spain quiet, at least temporarily. On a personal level, he might be prod the Senate to elect him as consul with special powers (somewhat similar to Pompey's mandate in the late 50s BC.); he might also have the Senate allocat Gallia, Narbonensis and the two Spains as a "provincia", mainly in order to deal with the local economic and administrative issues (in the case of Gaul) and restore public order (in the case of Spain).
How he would interact with Octavian is a difficult question: on the one hand, Lepidus probably didn't have the same level of ambition regarding the leadership of the Roman world, as Antony and Octavian did, but he wasn't a pushover and here he holds many more cards than OTL. My own guess is that when the will would be opened and it would become known that Octavian was Caesar's heir, Lepidus would accept this. Octavian would return to Rome to receive the patrimony and Lepidus would become a sort of loose ally, mainly because the former wouldn't be very established yet and with a civil war like OTL probably not happening - more below, he wouldn't have an early opportunity to exploit the divisions of the political system to achieve the political jumpstart he managed IOTL and establish a military base of his own - for the moment. While Octavian would be Caesar's heir, Lepidus would be the more prominent military commander and at least in those early months and years, he would be able to exert more infuence.
After the situation in Italy had stabilised somewhat, Lepidus would most likely turn his attention to dealing with the various opponents in the provinces. Therefore there would probably be campaigns to neutralise the Pompeians in Spain and against any anti-Caesarian movement in general - which would be easy since ITTL Sextus Pompeius and the Liberatores wouldn't have had many opportunities or much time to gain control of important provinces from which they could organise a new round of hostilities against the Caesarians. Lepidus would most likely be responsible for these operations, although Octavian would attempt to insert Agrippa as much as possible. Personally, I think that by 43 - 42 B.C, all notable anti-Caesarian movements would have been eliminated. The Senate would probably retain some more of its older members without something resembing the OTL Civil War and the proscriptions and therefore there might be a little bit more of pluralism; furthermore, Italy and the provinces wouldn't be as depleted as OTL and the Republic's manpower reserves wouldn't be drained by the conflicts of the late 40s.
Under these circumstances, it might be possible for Caesar's Parthian plans to resurface, since the Republic wouldn't be nearly as exhausted as OTL. A younger Octavian may feel that it is a venture worth the risk and a chance to build with a single stroke the auctoritas necessary to finally sideline other Caesarians, while Lepidus and others may want to "complete" Caesar's plans as well as add to their personal prestige, wealth and influence. How that campaign would evolve is hard to say; Octavian might plan to convince Lepidus to remain back in Rome to keep order in the western provinces, while he and Agrippa, invested with special powers, would head east to fight the Parthians - and in the case of victory, claim all the credit for themselves. However, I think it's more likely that Octavian would probably stay back in Rome and send Lepidus in the East, accompanied by Agrippa, while doing everything to chip away the former's power, influence and authority, by playing the political game back home and bringing the western provinces under his control one way or another and, after the war, directing the peace process and the postwar settlement in a way that would serve his interests.
(just my thoughts, I hope they aren't any issues)
How he would interact with Octavian is a difficult question: on the one hand, Lepidus probably didn't have the same level of ambition regarding the leadership of the Roman world, as Antony and Octavian did, but he wasn't a pushover and here he holds many more cards than OTL. My own guess is that when the will would be opened and it would become known that Octavian was Caesar's heir, Lepidus would accept this. Octavian would return to Rome to receive the patrimony and Lepidus would become a sort of loose ally, mainly because the former wouldn't be very established yet and with a civil war like OTL probably not happening - more below, he wouldn't have an early opportunity to exploit the divisions of the political system to achieve the political jumpstart he managed IOTL and establish a military base of his own - for the moment. While Octavian would be Caesar's heir, Lepidus would be the more prominent military commander and at least in those early months and years, he would be able to exert more infuence.
After the situation in Italy had stabilised somewhat, Lepidus would most likely turn his attention to dealing with the various opponents in the provinces. Therefore there would probably be campaigns to neutralise the Pompeians in Spain and against any anti-Caesarian movement in general - which would be easy since ITTL Sextus Pompeius and the Liberatores wouldn't have had many opportunities or much time to gain control of important provinces from which they could organise a new round of hostilities against the Caesarians. Lepidus would most likely be responsible for these operations, although Octavian would attempt to insert Agrippa as much as possible. Personally, I think that by 43 - 42 B.C, all notable anti-Caesarian movements would have been eliminated. The Senate would probably retain some more of its older members without something resembing the OTL Civil War and the proscriptions and therefore there might be a little bit more of pluralism; furthermore, Italy and the provinces wouldn't be as depleted as OTL and the Republic's manpower reserves wouldn't be drained by the conflicts of the late 40s.
Under these circumstances, it might be possible for Caesar's Parthian plans to resurface, since the Republic wouldn't be nearly as exhausted as OTL. A younger Octavian may feel that it is a venture worth the risk and a chance to build with a single stroke the auctoritas necessary to finally sideline other Caesarians, while Lepidus and others may want to "complete" Caesar's plans as well as add to their personal prestige, wealth and influence. How that campaign would evolve is hard to say; Octavian might plan to convince Lepidus to remain back in Rome to keep order in the western provinces, while he and Agrippa, invested with special powers, would head east to fight the Parthians - and in the case of victory, claim all the credit for themselves. However, I think it's more likely that Octavian would probably stay back in Rome and send Lepidus in the East, accompanied by Agrippa, while doing everything to chip away the former's power, influence and authority, by playing the political game back home and bringing the western provinces under his control one way or another and, after the war, directing the peace process and the postwar settlement in a way that would serve his interests.
(just my thoughts, I hope they aren't any issues)