WI: The Deputies Do Their Diligence?

[Wendell]

Louis Napoleon Bonaparte, nephew and step grandson of Napoleon I, Emperor of the French, served as the first President of France, and was the only president elected in the second republic, because he would goon to abolish it in favor of a second empire. Suppose though that either the 1849 constitution itself, or the subsequently enacted lection law(s) forbade family members of former monarchs from seeking the presidency? Who wins the election, OTL's runner up? Someone else? Does the Republic survive? What does that mean for Italy, Prussia/Germany, Mexico, and everyone else? Discuss.

 

[frustrated progressive]

Louis Napoleon Bonaparte, nephew and step grandson of Napoleon I, Emperor of the French, served as the first President of France, and was the only president elected in the second republic, because he would goon to abolish it in favor of a second empire. Suppose though that either the 1849 constitution itself, or the subsequently enacted lection law(s) forbade family members of former monarchs from seeking the presidency? Who wins the election, OTL's runner up? Someone else? Does the Republic survive? What does that mean for Italy, Prussia/Germany, Mexico, and everyone else? Discuss.

An interesting and under-explored idea.
Quite possibly Napoleon attempts a coup from below instead of one from above-after the chaos of 1848, the republic was pretty badly discredited. However, he could still fail, perhaps even die in the attempt. I don't know what this would mean for the Republic, perhaps a "moderate" state with support outside of Paris like the Third Republic, against the radical Parisians (Cavaignac would certainly be a polarizing figure as President)-but the Third Republic's success required a combination of unlikely circumstances that probably wouldn't happen in a nation 25 years less developed, where traditional loyalties and rural indifference were that much stronger. I could honestly see a dysfunctional Republic paving the way for a Bourbon or Orleans restoration in the near-ish future. A surviving republican government would be possible, but could perhaps be its own dictatorship. I don't know what it would take for democratic institutions to be firmly established, this is not my wheelhouse I'm afraid.

 

[Wendell]

The possibilities seem bountiful, and there were dynamic characters in France during that era. Ergo, I put this out there.