WI: the Ostrogoths won the Gothic War?

[FranzAncheNo]

After a quick research I noticed there's no discussion about this topic (Only "What if it wasn't so long?" or "What if it never happened?".).
This is unbelievable and (As an Italian.) unacceptable for the best AH website in the world!

So let's say it happens.
For example: Totila wins at Taginae and Narses is killed during the battle.
Is this enough to end the war with a Gothic victory?

 

[Coluber]

Can I answer, "I don't know"? The gothic war did depopulate Italy, but maybe the Lombards could conquer Italy north of the Arno and Rubicon. It's not an easy question to answer. But the Lombards do have a harder time of it, and might just content themselves with Austria. Maybe Dalmatia.

Shucks. I'm putting no.

 

[FranzAncheNo]

Can I answer, "I don't know"? The gothic war did depopulate Italy, but maybe the Lombards could conquer Italy north of the Arno and Rubicon. It's not an easy question to answer. But the Lombards do have a harder time of it, and might just content themselves with Austria. Maybe Dalmatia.

Shucks. I'm putting no.

Now you've another option.

 

[jocay]

If the Gothic War is as protracted and bloody as it already was, an pyrrhic Ostrogoth victory guarantees that the Lombards would conquer most, if not all of the Italian peninsula.

 

[FranzAncheNo]

If the Gothic War is as protracted and bloody as it already was, an pyrrhic Ostrogoth victory guarantees that the Lombards would conquer most, if not all of the Italian peninsula.

Possible.
Also I think Justinian may encourage a Lombard attempt to conquer the Peninsula as a sort of revenge.

 

[FranzAncheNo]

I know today there's a lot of funny threads, but are you really telling me nobody is interested in the dear old Ostrogoths?

 

[LordKalvan]

After a quick research I noticed there's no discussion about this topic (Only "What if it wasn't so long?" or "What if it never happened?".).
This is unbelievable and (As an Italian.) unacceptable for the best AH website in the world!

So let's say it happens.
For example: Totila wins at Taginae and Narses is killed during the battle.
Is this enough to end the war with a Gothic victory?

By the time Totila is king, it's too late: too much damage has been done, and Justinian's plague is already started.
Ideally, the best by far for the Ostrogothic kingdom would be no invasion (which might be managed in various ways, including the death of Amalasuntha, or Belisarius failing to defeat the Vandals). My favourite POD would be Theodoric going to an earlier grave - say between 515-520 - which might also butterfly away the early death of Eutharic. Something might be made also of Amalasuntha marrying someone other than Theohadad: it's difficult to believe she might choose worse than she did, or again going to an early grave after the death of Theodoric.

If none of the former PODs is chosen, Belisarius needs to be stopped before he takes Naples (ideally) or at least defeated at the siege of Rome.

A "reasonable" outcome for the ATL might see the ERE keeping Sicily, but the Goths controlling all of the rest of Italy and Dalmatia by the end of the 530s.
What comes after that depends on who is king, how the plague affects Italy (should be anyway less than OTL) and how are Gothic relations with Franks and Burgundians on one side and Lombards on the other one. A successful Lombard invasion might be unlikely unless the Gothic kingship is weak; it is more likely that Lombards might be co-opted by the Gothic kingdom and settled in Dalmatia and Noricum.

 

[FranzAncheNo]

By the time Totila is king, it's too late: too much damage has been done, and Justinian's plague is already started.
Ideally, the best by far for the Ostrogothic kingdom would be no invasion (which might be managed in various ways, including the death of Amalasuntha, or Belisarius failing to defeat the Vandals). My favourite POD would be Theodoric going to an earlier grave - say between 515-520 - which might also butterfly away the early death of Eutharic. Something might be made also of Amalasuntha marrying someone other than Theohadad: it's difficult to believe she might choose worse than she did, or again going to an early grave after the death of Theodoric.

If none of the former PODs is chosen, Belisarius needs to be stopped before he takes Naples (ideally) or at least defeated at the siege of Rome.

A "reasonable" outcome for the ATL might see the ERE keeping Sicily, but the Goths controlling all of the rest of Italy and Dalmatia by the end of the 530s.
What comes after that depends on who is king, how the plague affects Italy (should be anyway less than OTL) and how are Gothic relations with Franks and Burgundians on one side and Lombards on the other one. A successful Lombard invasion might be unlikely unless the Gothic kingship is weak; it is more likely that Lombards might be co-opted by the Gothic kingdom and settled in Dalmatia and Noricum.

Bringing someone else on the Ostrogoth side for all the time of the War could work too, but who?
• A sudden Persian attack in 550 (Of course Khosrow I would have to "ignore" the treaty he they signed.).
• An earlier Avar Khaganate (Which requires an earlier PoD and causes an earlier Lombard migration.)?
• Chlotar I? perhaps his wife dies earlier so he's able to arrange a political marriage with a Gothic princess and comes to rescue Italy (But this requires the Franks being Arians or the Ostrogoths being Catholics.).

Admitting the Lombards settle in Dalmatia and I'm skeptical about it.
Do we have chances of something like Bosnia to be called Lombardija?

 

[Mr_Fanboy]

Is there any possibility at all of a scenario where Belisarius actually accepts the Ostrogoths’ offer of kingship?

 

[FranzAncheNo]

Is there any possibility at all of a scenario where Belisarius actually accepts the Ostrogoths’ offer of kingship?

It is possible. It wouldn't really be the Belisarius we know if he did something like it, but it is possible.
I think that if Justinian fully thrusts Belisarius' he may even nominate him co-Emperor.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

If the war doesn't drag on so long the Lomvards probably set up shop in Illyria and Noriucm instead, Sicily is taken by the Byzantine and Provnce probably falls under the Frankish sphere. As wotj the Visugothic kingdom the rulers probably end up abandoning arianism, I suspect they can still hold Italy and probably keep Burgundy independent. As a powerful North Italian state ha a much easier time in that region than France imho especially if they cooperate with their spanish cousins.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

My impression is the Lombards were mercenaries used by the Byzantines.

Actually I strongly suspect, given how little we really know about the period, that the Lombards didn't conquer their portion of Italy but got it in payment for helping the Byzantines defeat the Ostrogoths. The 7th century pattern of Byzantine and Lombard holdings doesn't make sense as a result of invaders from the northeast conquering the peninsula, but the Lombard lands are exactly the less important parts of Italy that you would expect the Byzantines to give them. Or maybe the Lombards were brought in by the Ostrotoghs and these were territories the Byzantines never were able to conquer.

So a decisive Ostrogoth win means no Lombard principalities and an united Italy, looking to expand.

 

[LordKalvan]

Bringing someone else on the Ostrogoth side for all the time of the War could work too, but who?
• A sudden Persian attack in 550 (Of course Khosrow I would have to "ignore" the treaty he they signed.).
• An earlier Avar Khaganate (Which requires an earlier PoD and causes an earlier Lombard migration.)?
• Chlotar I? perhaps his wife dies earlier so he's able to arrange a political marriage with a Gothic princess and comes to rescue Italy (But this requires the Franks being Arians or the Ostrogoths being Catholics.).

Admitting the Lombards settle in Dalmatia and I'm skeptical about it.
Do we have chances of something like Bosnia to be called Lombardija?

The Persians and the ERE were at war (on and off) from 540 to 562 (including the sack of Antioch at the very beginning of the war): since just years had passed since signing the Eternal Peace with Justinian, I would not be very much worried by tearing up a mere "5 years peace". Incidentally, the attitude was exactly the same in Constantinople.
There are some claims that Ostrogothic envoys arrived at Khosrow's court in the late 530s, bringing tales of the Roman invasion of Italy and predicting that Persia would be the next target of Justinian's ambition. Be this true or not, Khosrow was certainly willing to test the Roman preparedness.

The Avars are a bit too far away to be of use, although it might be possible that they might be incentivated to raid beyond the Danube.
The Franks are Catholic, as you say, but more importantly there are a lot of Franks. Opening the door to Italy for them doesn't strike me as a good policy.
IMHO, the best bet are the Lombards (who are both Germanic - although speaking a different dialect - and Arians). Sharing a common faith may not be the best basis for an alliance (Justinian had the Lombards on retainer, both to defend the southern border of Pannonia and to fight against the Goths in Italy), but a decisive Gothic victory might change the Lombards' prospects. They are not a very large people, and certainly cannot hold Pannonia, which is horse country. OTOH they might be a good help to keep the N-E Italian border safe. Austria or Slovenia might be a better fit for their warriors: maybe it would be called Langbarðaland ITTL

It is possible. It wouldn't really be the Belisarius we know if he did something like it, but it is possible.
I think that if Justinian fully thrusts Belisarius' he may even nominate him co-Emperor.

Justinian fully thrust anyone? In a month of blue moons, and probably not even then

 

[FranzAncheNo]

My impression is the Lombards were mercenaries used by the Byzantines.

And definitely they were and had a fundamental role in the Gothic War.

The 7th century pattern of Byzantine and Lombard holdings doesn't make sense as a result of invaders from the northeast conquering the peninsula

Why? I mean they won the Gothic war in 553, why waiting until 568 to allow the occupation of the conquered lands?
Unless they promised the occupation and then tried not to keep such a promise.

AFAIK the first city they took was Cividale del Friuli (568) near the Italo-Slovenian border and soon they marched on some cities of the Venetian inland (Verona, Brescia.) opening their way to Milan (569) and Lucca (572) in Tuscany.
They do besieged Pavia for three years so I don't think it was such a peaceful migration.

the Lombard lands are exactly the less important parts of Italy that you would expect the Byzantines to give them.

The duchies of Tuscia (574) and Spoleto (Maybe 576, before 584 for sure.) weren't the richest parts of Italy, but the Byzantines actually kept way worse stuff:
• The corridor that united Liguria and Romagna is extremely mountainous that isn't definitely as valuable as central Tuscany and the Lombards (Which threatened it on both sides in 574.) already proved to be able to cross it (At least the western part.) in 572.
In fact this corridor was conquered by 597.
• The second corridor (Romagna-Rome) was exposed on both sides (by 584) as the other one and resisted mainly 'cause it was considered vital by the Byzantines, 'cause its lands weren't again very attractive for the Lombards (Which I think were able to cross it without much troubles, but thus revealing their presence to their enemies in the rest of the Peninsula and thus allowing them to prepare a suitable defense.) and last (But not least, especially after the conversion to Catholicism of Agilulf.) 'cause of the growing political influence of the Pope.

 

[LordKalvan]

My impression is the Lombards were mercenaries used by the Byzantines.

Actually I strongly suspect, given how little we really know about the period, that the Lombards didn't conquer their portion of Italy but got it in payment for helping the Byzantines defeat the Ostrogoths. The 7th century pattern of Byzantine and Lombard holdings doesn't make sense as a result of invaders from the northeast conquering the peninsula, but the Lombard lands are exactly the less important parts of Italy that you would expect the Byzantines to give them. Or maybe the Lombards were brought in by the Ostrotoghs and these were territories the Byzantines never were able to conquer.

So a decisive Ostrogoth win means no Lombard principalities and an united Italy, looking to expand.

The Lombards were used by the ERE as foederates, but this works only if they are well paid and not dislodged from their lands by a stronger people.
Which is what probably happened when Alboin led the migration into Italy. The Padan plain was easily enough to conquer, including most of the cities (the only notable exception was Pavia, which required a long siege), and Tuscany followed pretty quickly. The ERE managed to keep only the coastal cities, and even them were slowly nibbled away over the next 150 years. Lombardia Minor (the duchies of Spoleto and Benevento) was settled by semi-independent farae (more or less equivalent to clans), and their relation with Lombardia Major was always turbulent.

 

[FranzAncheNo]

IMHO, the best bet are the Lombards (who are both Germanic - although speaking a different dialect - and Arians). Sharing a common faith may not be the best basis for an alliance (Justinian had the Lombards on retainer, both to defend the southern border of Pannonia and to fight against the Goths in Italy), but a decisive Gothic victory might change the Lombards' prospects. They are not a very large people, and certainly cannot hold Pannonia, which is horse country. OTOH they might be a good help to keep the N-E Italian border safe. Austria or Slovenia might be a better fit for their warriors: maybe it would be called Langbarðaland ITTL

Sounds interesting. How about a Lombard mutiny at Taginae? If the situation was as desperate for the Ostrogoths as you pointed then an alliance with Audoin in the 550's doesn't sound unbelievable and perhaps, hearing rumors of their king (Admitting they recognized him as king.) siding with Totila the Lombard foederates in Narses' army may switch side.
Of course the same rumors may convince Narses to massacre or send far away his Lombards before meeting the Goths.
This would decrease his numbers (The problem is how many Lombars did fight for him?) which could have an impact on the battle if Narses isn't able to substitute them (I highly doubt of him not being able to do it.) that means the latter Audoin sides with Totila the harsher it might be for the Byzantines.
Of course the Lombards need to march to Taginae from Pannonia (Bratislava-Gualdo Tadino is roughly 900 Km. 2-3 months?) and so there're some limits to "the latter".

Best case scenario for the Ostrogoths and the Lombards using these proposals:
• During Winter 551 Totila and Audoin agree to let the Lombards settle in Friuli and Eastern (Nowadays.) Veneto.
• In Spring they cross the Alps and start marching South to meet the main Gothic army.
• The first courier(s) who are/is riding their/his horse(s) to Byzantium fall(s) and break(s) their/his neck(s). First delay.
• The courier(s)'s ship from Constantinople is caught in a storm and destroyed. Second delay.
• Other troubles with the courier(s)' horse(s) in Southern Italy. Third delay.
• Add as many possible delays and distractions as are necessary to get to two months (Persian attack in Syria?).
• As soon as Narses hears about the new alliance he thinks about sending his Lombards to Syria and so he does, but he's forced by Justinian to send also a small part of his archers (The real reason of OTL victory.) and many foederates too.
• He's able to raise some substitutes in the remaining weeks.
• Battle of (I'm actually no more sure about Taginae, maybe Narses decides to avoid an open battle, but since this is a best case scenario...) somewhere Narses is forced to retreat and both sides suffer heavy casualties.
• Narses is moved to Syria.
• By 553 the Byzantine leave most of Italy.

 

[Seleukeia]

I've been a big fan of the Goths for a while now, having played as the Ostrogothic Kingdom in TW: Attila's The Last Roman Expedition on 3 occasions, as well as motivated by my tendency to advocate for the loser in many conflicts all across history. I also definitely agree that the Gothic War is underrated on this site, and deserves more recognition.

In my opinion, the best opportunity for an Ostrogoth success is as early as possible in the war, during the Siege of Naples in 536, and here's why.

At the Siege of Naples, Belisarius had only 8000 men; he would have 10600 at Rome the next year, so not a big difference in numbers for him, but hey, its something.

Furthermore, unlike with Rome, which immediately accepted Justinian's rule, the citizens of Naples decided to resist Belisarius, and formed a militia to fight alongside 800 Gothic soldiers. Now, Naples did eventually fall, but in large part due to the failure of the Gothic king, Theodahad, to come to the assistance of the city in time, leading to his overthrow by Vitiges. Belisarius would later go on to defeat Vitiges in the Siege of Rome due to having the support of the Roman citizens and thus the ability to quarter his army behind the protective walls of the city of Rome; in an alternate world where Theodahad does come to Naples, Belisarius would not have this liberty. At Rome, Vitiges did have 25000-45000 men which Theodahad would likely also have at Naples, thus Belisarius would not only be heavily outnumbered but would be out in the open to Gothic attack as well.

Now, we all know he could just pull off another spectacular victory like the Battle of Dara or Ad Decimum, but this is alternate history guys, we're not just going to make some small change to the world only to get the same end result. For the sake of the POD, Belisarius loses, and is killed in battle. Whether Narses also lands in 538 is up for you to decide, but lets say he does; in my opinion, given his measly force of 7000 men, which was intended only as reinforcements, he would lose, but potentially this untested commander is given an actual force, do you think he wins or loses?

Another POD would be not having Theoderic the Great's heir, Eutharic, die in 522 and let him live on to inherit the dual Gothic thrones. Sure, Eutharic would be an old man, aorund 65 when Belisarius invades, but the combined power of both Italy and Spain resisting Belisarius' advance could be decisive, and the presence of numerous Ostrogothic kings including the great Totila after Theodahad's death showed that there was no shortage of Gothic commanders to help him fight, and I feel there is great potential for Totila's name to still rise into the annals of history in the case of such a conflict, distinguishing himself in battle.

Alright, so those are my two PODs for a surviving Gothic Italy that has also managed to save its population of 7 million from being cut down to 2.5 by the constant fighting and Justinian's Plague.

P.S. On the topic of the Lombards, I feel that, if not convinced to ally with the Ostrogoths, that they would be easily repulsed from Italy in this situation. The primary reason they had been successful in their Italian campaign IS because the constant fighting between Greek and Goth had severely depopulated the region, and with a strong Ostrogothic state, I find it unlikely for them to successfully break through into Italy.

P.S.S. Another POD could merely be Belisarius dying at Dara or Ad Decimum, the former buffing the Sassanids significantly and the latter preserving the independence of the Vandals (depending on your view, Belisarius' death at Dara may also prevent plans for a Byzantine reconquest for the time being as well).

 

[FranzAncheNo]

I've been a big fan of the Goths for a while now, having played as the Ostrogothic Kingdom in TW: Attila's The Last Roman Expedition on 3 occasions, as well as motivated by my tendency to advocate for the loser in many conflicts all across history. I also definitely agree that the Gothic War is underrated on this site, and deserves more recognition.

In my opinion, the best opportunity for an Ostrogoth success is as early as possible in the war, during the Siege of Naples in 536, and here's why.

At the Siege of Naples, Belisarius had only 8000 men; he would have 10600 at Rome the next year, so not a big difference in numbers for him, but hey, its something.

Furthermore, unlike with Rome, which immediately accepted Justinian's rule, the citizens of Naples decided to resist Belisarius, and formed a militia to fight alongside 800 Gothic soldiers. Now, Naples did eventually fall, but in large part due to the failure of the Gothic king, Theodahad, to come to the assistance of the city in time, leading to his overthrow by Vitiges. Belisarius would later go on to defeat Vitiges in the Siege of Rome due to having the support of the Roman citizens and thus the ability to quarter his army behind the protective walls of the city of Rome; in an alternate world where Theodahad does come to Naples, Belisarius would not have this liberty. At Rome, Vitiges did have 25000-45000 men which Theodahad would likely also have at Naples, thus Belisarius would not only be heavily outnumbered but would be out in the open to Gothic attack as well.

Now, we all know he could just pull off another spectacular victory like the Battle of Dara or Ad Decimum, but this is alternate history guys, we're not just going to make some small change to the world only to get the same end result. For the sake of the POD, Belisarius loses, and is killed in battle. Whether Narses also lands in 538 is up for you to decide, but lets say he does; in my opinion, given his measly force of 7000 men, which was intended only as reinforcements, he would lose, but potentially this untested commander is given an actual force, do you think he wins or loses?

Another POD would be not having Theoderic the Great's heir, Eutharic, die in 522 and let him live on to inherit the dual Gothic thrones. Sure, Eutharic would be an old man, aorund 65 when Belisarius invades, but the combined power of both Italy and Spain resisting Belisarius' advance could be decisive, and the presence of numerous Ostrogothic kings including the great Totila after Theodahad's death showed that there was no shortage of Gothic commanders to help him fight, and I feel there is great potential for Totila's name to still rise into the annals of history in the case of such a conflict, distinguishing himself in battle.

Alright, so those are my two PODs for a surviving Gothic Italy that has also managed to save its population of 7 million from being cut down to 2.5 by the constant fighting and Justinian's Plague.

P.S. On the topic of the Lombards, I feel that, if not convinced to ally with the Ostrogoths, that they would be easily repulsed from Italy in this situation. The primary reason they had been successful in their Italian campaign IS because the constant fighting between Greek and Goth had severely depopulated the region, and with a strong Ostrogothic state, I find it unlikely for them to successfully break through into Italy.

P.S.S. Another POD could merely be Belisarius dying at Dara or Ad Decimum, the former buffing the Sassanids significantly and the latter preserving the independence of the Vandals (depending on your view, Belisarius' death at Dara may also prevent plans for a Byzantine reconquest for the time being as well).

Belisarius defeated at Naples would be perfect for the TL, but it may mean a long lasting Theodahad's kingdom (And so no popular myth of Amalasuntha's revenge.).

 

[m0585]

Is Justinian just conceding defeat, or is he willing to send more troops to retake/hold Italy?

 

[FranzAncheNo]

Is Justinian just conceding defeat, or is he willing to send more troops to retake/hold Italy?

In order to have the Ostrogoths actually winning I say the first.
After a defeat in a war as long as the Gothic one I don't think he would try a second time and maybe this might be a problem for the early victory scenario.