WI Turkey Goes Communist?

[Hannibal.Caesar]

What effects would it have on the global stage if Ataturk's style of government would have fallen and Turkey went communist? I'm not too sure how important the POD is to such a scenario, but say that this happens in the late 1940s or the early 1950s.

How would this change the Cold War? What would be the Soviet and/or American response, especially since the Soviets now have potential access through the Turkish Straits?

Most interestingly (at least to me), how would things be if Turkey goes Maoist in the 1960s? Would we see an "Ankara Spring," and how wide-ranging would the effects of the political split be?

 

[Corbell Mark IV]

What effects would it have on the global stage if Ataturk's style of government would have fallen and Turkey went communist? I'm not too sure how important the POD is to such a scenario, but say that this happens in the late 1940s or the early 1950s.

How would this change the Cold War? What would be the Soviet and/or American response, especially since the Soviets now have potential access through the Turkish Straits?

Most interestingly (at least to me), how would things be if Turkey goes Maoist in the 1960s? Would we see an "Ankara Spring," and how wide-ranging would the effects of the political split be?

I have heard claims (no idea if true ) that the missiles placed in Cuba were in response to the US missiles in Turkey.

If there is any truth to that then the Cuban Missile Crisis could be butterflied away.

And a Soviet/Turkey split in the 60s would be good otherwise the Soviet naval position is much, much stronger.

Hell if Turkey could be convinced to join the Warsaw Pact the implications for NATO would have been horrible.

Now a China aligned Turkey is better. THe split would be dangerous, risk of sparking the Soviet/Sino Big One.

Assuming none of that, what happens when the Cold War winds down. Does Turkey remain communist and make a play for Muslim Republics?

Does it follow Chinese lead and liberalize economy?

Certainly no chance of joining EU.

 

[Kosovic]

I have heard claims (no idea if true ) that the missiles placed in Cuba were in response to the US missiles in Turkey.

If there is any truth to that then the Cuban Missile Crisis could be butterflied away.

And a Soviet/Turkey split in the 60s would be good otherwise the Soviet naval position is much, much stronger.

Hell if Turkey could be convinced to join the Warsaw Pact the implications for NATO would have been horrible.

Now a China aligned Turkey is better. THe split would be dangerous, risk of sparking the Soviet/Sino Big One.

Assuming none of that, what happens when the Cold War winds down. Does Turkey remain communist and make a play for Muslim Republics?

Does it follow Chinese lead and liberalize economy?

Certainly no chance of joining EU.

And why not? Bulgaria was part of WP and now just got in EU.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

And why not? Bulgaria was part of WP and now just got in EU.

Yup, but they aren't commies anymore.

 

[Corbell Mark IV]

And why not? Bulgaria was part of WP and now just got in EU.

Well in OTL Turkey is likely not to become a member despite being an ally during the Cold War. I don't see being enemies instead of allies helping Turkey in this regard.

Although there could be odd butterflies.

Some ideas I have had since my last post.

Communist Turkey=less religious ME?

More communist/islamic factions killing each other?

Or does a communist Turkey take the lead in attacking Isreal? That could lead to the Big Contingency through all kind of paths.


Also a communist Turkey less likely to be a source of temp workers for Germany. WIth less muslim population to raise concerns membership might be less scary, especially if butterflies lessen Islamic extermism.

 

[mishery]

Hmm. Cyprus....WWIII?

 

[Corbell Mark IV]

Hmm. Cyprus....WWIII?

Exellent point!

WWIII with a Eastern Med/Balkan front? That's a brain twister!

 

[Keenir]

What effects would it have on the global stage if Ataturk's style of government would have fallen and Turkey went communist? I'm not too sure how important the POD is to such a scenario, but say that this happens in the late 1940s or the early 1950s.

Stalin rather liked Ataturk, and thought the man was turning Turkey into a Socialist(?) state.

Turkey does have a Communist Party, but its small and not too powerful.

Also a communist Turkey less likely to be a source of temp workers for Germany.

why's that? they could go to East Germany.

 

[Corbell Mark IV]

why's that? they could go to East Germany.

I know that East Germany was, relative to the rest of the Warsaw Pact fairly prosperous, but did that really translate into a need for labour on a scale anything like West Germany?

I assume not, but I admitt that that is based on nothing but my low opinion of communism.

And now that I think of it, I cannot think of any example of communism creating jobs to the point of mass migration.

 

[Dan1988]

Well, for starters, get rid of İsmet İnönü.