I mean, it's more logical than the vanilla Victorious-Kaiserreich-Helps-the-Whites scenario; after all, why would they help the folks they've been fighting for the past four years? It makes more sense from a strategical PoV; a White Russia would only have one thing to focus on: take back Eastern Europe from the Germans. A Red Russia OTOH would also face the Japanese and the British (who, coincidentally, would be in the german Enemy List too). Wouldn't it be better for Germany to be on good terms with the Soviets so they would focus first on India and Manchuria?
Would a victorious Kaiserreich support Soviet Russia?
- Thread starter El_Presidente
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If something like this did happen, the Germans would probably keep their friendliness with the Soviets quiet while maintaining a public position of grumbling through their excellent moustaches.
I could imagine the idea of a public relationship with the Soviets becoming more acceptable over time only after a gradual cooling of temperaments, and with the correct type of diplomatic compromise (ie, 'When we're talking about permanent revolution, obviously we don't mean you guys', etc).
German support of the Soviet Union would probably also depend heavily on whatever's happening in Anatolia after the war*, and if the Germans/Soviets happen to have mutually supporting goals in the region.
*Even in the case of a Central Powers victory, I can't imagine the Ottoman Empire staying stable and whole for very long.
I could imagine the idea of a public relationship with the Soviets becoming more acceptable over time only after a gradual cooling of temperaments, and with the correct type of diplomatic compromise (ie, 'When we're talking about permanent revolution, obviously we don't mean you guys', etc).
German support of the Soviet Union would probably also depend heavily on whatever's happening in Anatolia after the war*, and if the Germans/Soviets happen to have mutually supporting goals in the region.
*Even in the case of a Central Powers victory, I can't imagine the Ottoman Empire staying stable and whole for very long.
Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe are far more important to whatever rules Russia then India or Manchuria.
Britain would ally or at the very least support a red Russia as Germany is the far bigger threat and Japan can be bought off with a free hand in China
Anchises
Banned
Germany would be a more natural partner. Great Britain is tied to the Whites.
Dealing with the devil you know... (and the devil that allowed your rise to power in the first place)
Anchises
Banned
Yeah but Great Britain is really unlikely to just turn around and support the "killer" of its former ally.
And why would the Soviets acceot British help? The ally of the reactionaries and accepting their help would mean alienating the Germans.
The Soviets need trade with the German sphere, Great Britain has nothing to offer that would be able to compensate trade with Germany.
But they need Russia like they did in OTL to fight Germany even more so then otl and earlier as well.
Germany is also reactionaries in the eyes of the Soviets and holding areas extremely important to Russia
Well, what I had envisioned in Anatolia was the Entente imposing harsher terms on Turkey than OTL, with the french getting Cilicia and the british a Kurdish Protectorate. There's an uprising against the Turkish government for accepting those terms, and the Entenre moves in to support the regime. Bulgaria would take Adrianople in the confusion (and eventually go neutralish), but the Straits would remain in Turkish (and by default British) hands.
Well, this isn't going to be a "we are truly friends" friendship, but an understanding that they're gonna leave the other to deal with for after they've dealt with everyone else.
Also, Imperial Germany would be Russia's only "friend" in TTL. Wouldn't it be wiser to leave Ukraine for desserts?
And regarding Britain's opinion of the Soviets: they really didn't like them, I mean, they almost go to war against the USSR (an USSR with the Caucasus and Ukraine) while they were at war against the germans.
How about them supporting neither the Bolsheviks nor the pro-Allied majority of the Whites but setting up a puppet government of their own like Skoropadski's in Ukraine? Krasnov would be an obvious figurehead...
(In OTL, even when the Kaiser rejected the idea of military intervention against the Bolsheviks in the summer of 1918, he significantly added the words "without foreclosing future opportunities." https://books.google.com/books?id=5mSkxsos488C&pg=PA184 A German victory in the West might provide such an opportunity, given that the Germans were well aware that the Bolsheviks still wanted a revolution in Germany.)
The Bolsheviks might be the lesser evil compared with strongly anti-German moderate socialists and Kadets (some Kadets, like Milyukov were willing to reconsider their hostility to Germany but they wanted a serious revision of Brest-Litovsk). But was that really the only choice open to the Germans if they won in the West? I know it's been objected that the German people would be in no mood for a new war, but the Red Army was in its infancy, and replacing the Bolsheviks with a puppet government would not take a huge military effort...
Well, the Entente, together with the Whites, couldn't do it. I don't think that the Germans, without a German-aligned Russian entity to draw popular support, could do it.
"No nation has friends only interests." A German controlled Ukraine and Belarus is a dagger pointed at heart of Russia . The first foreign objective for any Russian government is a secured Ukraine and Belarus. There no way a Rump Russia or France and Britain alone can take on a German mitteleuropa. They need each other to fight Germany.
But they didn't attack USSR, not mention they had won the first time and faced a far weaker Germany than one victorious in the first world war. A central power victory would show that Britain and France can't do it alone.
The only way Soviet Russia would ally with imperial Germany would be a milder treaty of brest litovsk which leaves Russia with Ukraine and Belarus gives concessions like a demilitarized Estonia
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Deleted member 94680
As a war measure to knock Russia out of the war, it wasn’t out of any love of socialism.
longsword14
Banned
And there was nothing special about Lenin either, after all it was not known just who would end up taking over (if at all) the Russian Empire. Other trouble makers were also sent, but their failure has erased them from popular memory.
For one thing, the reason Germany and the Soviet Union were friendly after WW I IOTL was because both were international pariahs and were dependent on each other. Ideologically, the aristocratic, nationalist, imperialist and expansionist Imperial Germany and the revolutionary socialist Soviet Union couldn't be much further removed from each other. The Kaiserreich only supported the Bolsheviks to begin with in order to force Russia out of the war, not because of any sympathy, and they'll throw the commies under the bus once they've served their purpose. The result will be cliques of former Tsarist generals that the Germans can play against each other. Russia could then become to Germany what China was to Japan in the interbellum. A divided warlord Russia is better exploitable than a united Red Russia.
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Deleted member 94680
Edited for brevity, not for any disagreement.
I fully agree with this assesment. Not only the Kaiser, but pretty much anyone in power OTL in Imperial Germany would despise Soviet Russia and look to destroy it. Look at the OTL Freikorps and their actions in the Baltics or Finland for example.
History Learner
Banned
Beat me to posting it. Had the Spring Offensive worked, I have no doubt that the Bolsheviks would've been dealt with that summer.