Would the Jin conquer the Southern Song if the Mongol Empire never existed?
- Thread starter vsauce
- Start date
So here's my take:
If the Jin united all of China, they wouldn't resemble the Yuan or the Song/Ming. Rather, they would be more like the Tang in a way, with a more military-heavy buraucracy compared to how under the Song, a scholar-bureaucracy began to dominate. Neo-Confucianism as we know it would be sidelined in favor of the ideas of northern Song scholar Su Shi and Daoism and Buddhism would also be more prominent. The Jin are probably also more likely to pursue military expeditions into the Tarim Basin and central Asia in general.
If the Jin united all of China, they wouldn't resemble the Yuan or the Song/Ming. Rather, they would be more like the Tang in a way, with a more military-heavy buraucracy compared to how under the Song, a scholar-bureaucracy began to dominate. Neo-Confucianism as we know it would be sidelined in favor of the ideas of northern Song scholar Su Shi and Daoism and Buddhism would also be more prominent. The Jin are probably also more likely to pursue military expeditions into the Tarim Basin and central Asia in general.
Art Vandelay
Banned
It took the Mongols decades to conquer the Song, somehow I don't think the Jin could achieve that. The Song armies of irrigation peasants were no good on offensive campaigns, but were difficult to beat on defense with their fortifications. Probably North and South China would develop in separate directions, one more influenced by the steppe tribes and and more purely terrestrial, the other more purely Han and naval oriented.
Would there be a reason for the Jin to expand into the Tarim and Central Asia? Would it be to pacify the neighboring nomadic tribes like the Tang did or would it be for some other reason?
The Jin would have to get past the western Xia first if they wanted to occupy the Tarim, as the Western Xia were in the gansu corridor region and would not be displaced until the Mongolian invasions
There's a good argument that without the Mongol/Yuan invasion and subsequent unification we might have not seen a united China, at least not for several more centuries. The Ming didn't do any real conquering themselves and were more a rebellion of the native Han aristocracy to remove the Yuan.
While the Manchu did conquer everything we consider modern China a Chinese world that encompassed several countries might not have fallen as quickly, or ever, to the Manchus, who very well could have been absorbed by a Jin, Mongol, or Korean state themselves. Would have reshaped East and Central Asian history immensely.
Minor correction, as the Jin were essentially Manchus already, an interesting idea is if facing south was too difficult they focused on the north and absorbed the Mongols and Tanguts. Without the Song conquest and inclusion of southern China northern China could have gone in a far different direction and become a different society compared to the South.
While the Manchu did conquer everything we consider modern China a Chinese world that encompassed several countries might not have fallen as quickly, or ever, to the Manchus, who very well could have been absorbed by a Jin, Mongol, or Korean state themselves. Would have reshaped East and Central Asian history immensely.
Minor correction, as the Jin were essentially Manchus already, an interesting idea is if facing south was too difficult they focused on the north and absorbed the Mongols and Tanguts. Without the Song conquest and inclusion of southern China northern China could have gone in a far different direction and become a different society compared to the South.
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Yea I was gonna say that the Jin were basically Manchus then you corrected yourself so there was no need for me to do that. Now do you think that the idea of the Jin expanding southwards would be difficult for them is probable? I mean I could see how the Jin would expand northwards but would it be that difficult for them to conquer southern China as the Song was already declining as the time of the Mongol invasion
Ok I know they would have to get past the Western Xia dynasty but that still applies to my question as to why would the Jin expand west
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Yes, part of the whole reason the Jin were declining, and the Song, was from the failed invasions that were beaten back by the Song and the Song themselves assisted the Mongols in breaking the Jin. The Song couldn't really invade the north on their own but were a pain to conquer, it still took the Mongols decades to conquer them after all.
Presumably for trade and self-protection.
The Silk Road may have been rather moribund compared to how it was during the Mongol era, but control of the Tarim Basin (at the very least) and Central Asia promised great wealth to the power that controlled them. After all, that region historically was one of the primary gateways for commerce with the Islamic and Christian realms to the west.
As for self-protection, the Liao still existed in the West as the Western Liao, while other members of the Liao Yelü dynasty in Northern China attempted to overthrow the Jin and restore their own domination of the Jurchens as the Eastern Liao. Even if the Jin put down the Eastern Liao, the Western Liao could potentially be seen as an existential threat (or at least a loose end that dissidents could rally behind), which in turn could provide a drive for going west.
Well yes they couldn’t conquer the north by themselves as their military wasn’t really the best. Now is it plausible that both dynasties decline or perhaps stagnate instead of one conquering the other?
Ah, the Silk Road now that would be good reason to expand west and especially since that leads to the Islamic world which was in its golden age at the time. If the Jin did succeed in expanding west and annexing or subjugating the Western Xia and the Western Liao that could lead to a revival in the Silk Road as China would be more connected with the Islamic realms.
Now the self protection part, the Western Liao could definitely be seen as a threat by the Jin as they were enemies with the earlier Liao dynasty (the only difference being is their geographical location). That reason could be applied to the Mongol tribes to the north, that being if you put down the potential threat of a unified Mongol state that could threaten your state, you wouldn’t have to worry about those tribes attacking the corridor connecting it to Central Asia and the nations connected to the Silk Road
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It is very plausible, if the Jin hadn't ground their military and economy against the Song, or better yet spent that on pacifying its northern and western frontiers, its likely they could have weathered or even repelled the Mongol invasions, if not preclude them from being more than the usual border raids. We could have easily had a situation that when the Europeans arrive in East Asia there is a Northern Empire of Cathay and a Southern Empire of China.
Yes, and if the Jin did exactly that before the Mongols invade, the Mongol Empire would’ve never came into existence which is part of my title so that would be a great pod to start from. Now assuming if the Europeans still come to China around the same time as in our timeline, at that point China would’ve been divided into 2 for over 300 years. That’d be a real long stalemate there.
It would be, more than three times as long as the last dissolution of China during the Five Dynasties period. At the same time it's extremely plausible, the northern China, especially if incorporating the Mongolian steppe, would be heavily influenced by the cavalry traditions of the Mongols, Turkics, and Manchus that would be excellent in northern China but increasingly fail in southern China. Meanwhile Southern China would be more urban and rely on citizen militias that make invasions either way a nightmare.
Besides, if the Mongols are pacified and incorporated while Jin China is Manchu based then the only real threat is Song China and without a third party coming in to upset the balance it's extremely easy to see this being maintained, unless one or both break up into smaller states.
Besides, if the Mongols are pacified and incorporated while Jin China is Manchu based then the only real threat is Song China and without a third party coming in to upset the balance it's extremely easy to see this being maintained, unless one or both break up into smaller states.
I’d say the Jin already has influences of cavalry traditions as they were basically Manchus just under a different name and that would only be amplified by subjugating and conquering the Mongols to their north. Now I think the status quo of the Jin and the Song would remain unchanged for a while if there was no Mongol Empire but one will eventually collapse right? It’s just which one of the two I’m not really sure who would collapse first
How about Korea? If the Jin get into a very brutal, long and unpopular fight with the Song Dynasty, then they could be weakened enough for Goryeo to take a stab up north and gain territory in Manchuria.
They could try doing that but I’m not really sure if that would succeed or not maybe Goryeo could succeed at that if both the Jin and the Song are weakened enough to the point where that’s possible