Would the USSR have invaded Poland if Nazi Germany did not exist?

[Iñaki]

Originally posted by HurganPl
Quote:
Totally correct, although the poles were more to made slaves (destruction of his intelligentsia, little education, anhilitation of his national identity, brutal repression and reagrupation; the poles had been the slaves of the III Reich) than anhilate them (a thing that jews and roms had been his final destiny
That's untrue, that was only for transition period which would last 15-20 years:

About Poland:

Quote:
Hitler made a decision to "turn this region into a purely German area within 15-20 years". He also explained that "Where 12 million Poles now live, is to be populated by 4 to 5 million Germans. The Generalgouvernement must become as German as Rhineland
From.
Germany and Eastern Europe: Cultural Identities and Cultural Differences By Keith Bullivant, Geoffrey J. Giles, Walter Pape

Also according tot Hitler´s Europe of Arnold J. Toynbee in his capitol about Poland: "in a discourse made at Cracovia, in april 1941, Frank declared that "it will arrive the time that the valley of the Vistula, from its fountains to the sea will be so german as the valley of the Rhin" Toynbee indicates clearly that the final politic of Germany was the total germanization but also that it could be made with displacements of the polish population not only with executions, the problem is the interpretation I think that : the measures would be reduction of the polish natality; massive displacement of the population and destruction of the poles that opposed this, at the end Poland would be populated by germans that would have as slaves the polish population that remained lived, it would be a Poland with 4-5 millions of germans while the poles that would have been expelled from the General Government surely in direction to the old Eastern Poland that was occupied by the soviets until Barbarossa would be a race of slaves, Toynbee indicates than more than anhilating the population the germans wanted to made this by population displacement, it seems that the final fate of the remaining polish population would be the slaves of the new race of masters.

Originally posted by Hurgan PL
Quote:
the GPU not needed lesson from Gestapo to made a bloody, efficient work -as in a clear example Kathyn graves showed that Stalin not needed lessons for Hitler in the art of anhilating nations
Ekhem ? Katyn happened much later then Operation Tannenberg in September-October 1939 in which 22,000 Poles were mass murdered in organised action by Germany in Poland.

Yes, but I am not saying who begin first only that Stalin not need Tannenberg operation to know exactly what made with the poles, Katyn happened in 1940 but it clear showed that Stalin was decided to pursue a hard repression of polish intelligentsia, militars and all the poles that the soviets believed dangerous without the need of looking nazi activities as lessons for him.

Originally posted by Hurgan PL
Quote:
the difference between nazi and soviet repressions-mass murder was than the nazis anhilated or enslaved that races that they considered subhumans (a thing that I found horrorous even the jews veterans of the I World War that had been condecorated would suffer a fate of isolation in mental institutions), Stalin not had differences at the hour of the executions in masse, only the paranoid guided him, in this case the thing was that any citizen could be the objective of a possible purge.
Aren't you missing a little fact, mainly that Nazi Germany targeted whole nations for execution, with mass murder as its primary goal, while Soviet Union enslaved whole nations with mass murder as its tool ? Any citizens could potentially be objective of a possible purge in SU but not everybody would. In Nazi Germany every member of a nation targeted by the regime would be murdered. Thus Soviet Union didn't mean certain death for Pole or a Jew while Nazi Germany did.

Err, but I am saying the same that you say, I say that paranoid made possible that Stalin fixed any citizen as target, not that Stalin had an special obsession in anhilate poles or jews only, Stalin could decide to eliminate any that considered dangerous for him, any citizen as I say could be the objective while the objective of the nazis were entire races or nations.

Originally posted by Faeelin
I dunno; Stalin was a cautious cat, after all, and it's not "WI Germany is replaced with an empty piece of land", it's "WI Germany is not Nazi Germany"; so it will still have a strong military.

But my guess is you'd see a Russo-Japanese War in 1938 first.

I agree with you as I say in a former post Stalin showed great caution in not making risky decisions, a Japanese-Soviet total war would be more probable than a soviet invasion of Poland (because it is supposed that this would mean a western intervention against Soviet Union, a probability that Stalin not wanted)

 

[MerryPrankster]

Erm, since when the Poles attacked first? The war started when the Polish and Soviet forces ran into each other in February 1919 near Niemen river...

I thought the Poles invaded Soviet-controlled Ukraine in order to add it to some kind of Eastern European confederation that could resist the Germans AND the Russians when they got strong again.

 

[Max Sinister]

Thande made a good point - Stalin could only invade Poland after Hitler started it, because now anyone who wanted to help Poland had to fight down Hitler first; if he had attacked first, the whole west might've been united against him.

But I wonder: If there had been no Hitler - would Poland have been able to hold down the Byelorussians and Ukrainians in the East forever? One the one hand they might've preferred living in Poland to Communism, OTOH they might've preferred independence even more.

 

[Landshark]

Thande made a good point - Stalin could only invade Poland after Hitler started it, because now anyone who wanted to help Poland had to fight down Hitler first; if he had attacked first, the whole west might've been united against him.

But I wonder: If there had been no Hitler - would Poland have been able to hold down the Byelorussians and Ukrainians in the East forever? One the one hand they might've preferred living in Poland to Communism, OTOH they might've preferred independence even more.

That's an idea.

While Stalin was too pragmatic to invade Poland for sake of invading Poland and too strong at home to invade Poland because he needs to distract the Soviet people from problems at home, he could be forced to invade Poland because of the actions of the Ukrainian and Byelorussian elements in Poland.

They kick up enough fuss that it starts spilling over the Polish/Soviet border and Stalin might have to react to avoid seeming weak within the Party.

 

[Iñaki]

Hmm, I think that the maximum that would made Stalin would be try to organize some kind of communist guerrilla within the byelorussian and ukrainian population in Poland.

Respect to seeming weak within the party, I think that in late 1930´s the party was in great part Stalin, he don´t need to justify too much his actions, in fact for example Stalin decided to not give too much help to the republicans in Spain with the finality to prolongue the civil war without an opposition within the party, also he made purges against the militaries without a response within the party, also the decided not to send help to the chinese communists during the civil war against KMT without critics within the party and he decided to finally not give more support to the communist greeks in the late phase of the Greek civil war because the risk of a confrontation againt the West without critics within the party.

So Stalin not need to justify any, and unless that because his actions the Soviet Union are in a total catastrofic situation surely there will no reaction against him, any possibility of criticism had disapeared with the purges of 1938-39, simplily great part of the party were formed by stalin minions or puppets.

So in my opinion problems in Poland with the ukraine and byelorussian population could mean the formation of some kind of guerrilla supported by the soviets but not in an open invasion of Poland.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

The Poland of the 1930s was a military dictatorship that France and Russia should have merely given to Germany.

As much as I despise Hurgan, fuck you. Fuck you very much.

But I wonder: If there had been no Hitler - would Poland have been able to hold down the Byelorussians and Ukrainians in the East forever? One the one hand they might've preferred living in Poland to Communism, OTOH they might've preferred independence even more.

I think the eastern minority issue would stay manageable in Stalin's lifetime, provided some disciple of Dmowski doesn't get into power. If that happens, expect this person to step on the Ukrainians' and Belorussians' toes with a heavy steel boot. The consequences won't be pretty.

To address the question, even if Germany's not Nazi it is still a crucial factor to consider. Weimar Germany had a relation with the USSR which varied in time but tended to be quite good. If Germany would participate in the war with Poland on Stalin's side, then it could happen.

But if German help's not forthcoming, then, for all of Hurgan's bigoted certainty, Stalin would not attack Poland. So many countries that would feel the need to retaliate to such an attack that it would be impossible to keep the war from escalating. The same risks exist for an attack against (north to south) Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Romania, or Turkey. The safest target for the Soviet Union is Japan. None of the neighbors to the east would stick their neck out for Japan, France even less so, Britain and the US are on bad terms with them anyway, and Germany's actually been helping the Chinese. Japan is a country with no friends.

 

[alt_historian]

I thought the Poles invaded Soviet-controlled Ukraine in order to add it to some kind of Eastern European confederation that could resist the Germans AND the Russians when they got strong again.

Pilsudski (who was, depending on your opinion, the autocrat or leader or dictator of Poland, 1926-1935) always claimed he wanted to create a voluntary confederation in Eastern Europe, which would indeed be able to resist all comers. He wanted this federation to be

[FONT=&quot]not a unitary national state, but a federation of [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Poland[/FONT][FONT=&quot], [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Lithuania[/FONT][FONT=&quot], [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Byelorussia[/FONT][FONT=&quot] and the [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Ukraine[/FONT][FONT=&quot]. The Poles were to hold the dominant position in the federation but the rights of the other nations were to be recognised and respected.
[/FONT]​

[FONT=&quot]A. Polonsky, The Little Dictators: The History of [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Eastern Europe[/FONT][FONT=&quot] since 1918[/FONT][FONT=&quot] (1975), p. 30.


It's useful having written an MA Modern History essay titled 'Accounting for the popular appeal of military men in inter-War European politics: Hindenburg, Horthy and Pilsudski'. It means I have some useful quotes on hand...[/FONT][FONT=&quot] [/FONT]

 

[Snake Featherston]

As much as I despise Hurgan, fuck you. Fuck you very much.

I acknowledge I messed up on that one. I had just gotten up in the morning, and I was thinking of Russia, and it came out Germany.

Hurgan, I apologize for my statement. It was not appropriate, and so I apologize again.

My statement was obscene. I will do penace.

I did not research Nazi aims towards the Polish people. My knowledge of the actual actions taken in Poland was limited. I had known the Nazis eliminated the Polish Jews, but for some reason I didn't think they would actually exterminate the Poles. I did more research, and I confess, I made a major boo-boo. Hurgan, my bad.

 

[Calgacus]

Pilsudski (who was, depending on your opinion, the autocrat or leader or dictator of Poland, 1926-1935) always claimed he wanted to create a voluntary confederation in Eastern Europe, which would indeed be able to resist all comers. He wanted this federation to be

[FONT=&quot]not a unitary national state, but a federation of [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Poland[/FONT][FONT=&quot], [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Lithuania[/FONT][FONT=&quot], [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Byelorussia[/FONT][FONT=&quot] and the [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Ukraine[/FONT][FONT=&quot]. The Poles were to hold the dominant position in the federation but the rights of the other nations were to be recognised and respected.
[/FONT]​

[FONT=&quot]A. Polonsky, The Little Dictators: The History of [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Eastern Europe[/FONT][FONT=&quot] since 1918[/FONT][FONT=&quot] (1975), p. 30.


It's useful having written an MA Modern History essay titled 'Accounting for the popular appeal of military men in inter-War European politics: Hindenburg, Horthy and Pilsudski'. It means I have some useful quotes on hand...[/FONT][FONT=&quot] [/FONT]

That was his aim, but it was not the way it turned out.

 

[PaleHorseRiding]

Um the original plan was to have the poles much like romania as a vassal state when they did not give in immediately to hitlers demands he got all pissy and said fine done want to fit the mold I got for you then you can die now fuck you very much.

This is straight out of mein kemph his own words on the poles. He hated the russians hell he made the Japananese aryans he can make some poles aryan.

Also he did take alot of poles he said could be aryanized which was basically anyone he felt like choosing or who bribed enough.

 

[alt_historian]

I know that.

That was his aim, but it was not the way it turned out.

I realise it didn't happen that way, hence the absence from historical records of a Confederation in the area in the early C20th, whether Polish, Eastern European, Balkan, or otherwise. I was just expanding on the mention of this, as it seems an interesting idea which could have worked if they'd had the modern conception of devolution of powers...
What would be a good name for the Poland-Byelorussia-Lithuania-Ukraine Confederation, by the way? Can't think of anything which both describes those countries and doesn't sound stupid.

PS: There is a TL out there where the Confederation idea does work, in a big way - to the extent that it becomes one of the key players in 1930s Europe. Trying to find it, will edit in here if I find it today.

PPS: Gaaah! Help! I can't find the damn thing. Someone must have heard of the TL I'm talking about. It was a multi-parter, posted on a page somewhere (obviously). It had events such as Germany fragmenting back into various kingdomes, principalities and republics after WWI - with Hanover choosing to be ruled once again from Buckingham Palace, and some other parts joining the expanding Confederation.

 

[chris N]

To begin with Stalin would be more than happy to invade Poland even without Nazi Germany. He was quite eager to avenge the defeate that he suffered during the Russo-Polish War. In addition he wanted to expand the Soviet Union and regain all of the territory lost during World War I.

 

[seraphim74]

Originaly posted by alt_historian

What would be a good name for the Poland-Byelorussia-Lithuania-Ukraine Confederation, by the way? Can't think of anything which both describes those countries and doesn't sound stupid.

I'm not sure Piłsudski wanted to create a confederation, more a military-economical alliance (with Poland as senior partner, but respecting other countries independence). So perhaps...Warsaw Pact?

Originally posted by PaleHorseRiding

Also he did take alot of poles he said could be aryanized which was basically anyone he felt like choosing or who bribed enough.

Not exactly. There were ethnic Germans in Poland, there were also some Poles who after 1939 suddenly decided they were of German origins (and could find some German great-grandmother or someone like that). Also, Nazi truly believed in their racist theories, so they also kidnapped children who looked "Aryan" and gave them to German families to be raised as Germans. Real parents were often sent to concentration camps or killed. However, that group was relatively small. To Hitler Poles, being Slavic, were Untermenschen, so they were to be enslaved or exterminated.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

To begin with Stalin would be more than happy to invade Poland even without Nazi Germany. He was quite eager to avenge the defeate that he suffered during the Russo-Polish War. In addition he wanted to expand the Soviet Union and regain all of the territory lost during World War I.

So what if he wanted it? Stalin wasn't not going to get in a war he couldn't win, which is why he didn't attack Poland for 15 years and the Nazis had to actually ask to him to attack in the favorable conditions that he had. In his 3 decades of rule I can only think of 3 occasions where he underestimated his adversaries.

 

[Otis Tarda]

But I wonder: If there had been no Hitler - would Poland have been able to hold down the Byelorussians and Ukrainians in the East forever? One the one hand they might've preferred living in Poland to Communism, OTOH they might've preferred independence even more.

No. The most probable scenario in "no WWII world" would be appearing sooner or late some kind of Ukrainian and Byelorussian terrorism, similiar to Irish or Basque OTL.

Also, Nazi truly believed in their racist theories, so they also kidnapped children who looked "Aryan" and gave them to German families to be raised as Germans

Not exactly. German racist teories were... uhmm... flexible, and just secondary to geopolitics. In case of, say, Polish-German alliance, German anthropology would "discover", that Poles are just descendants of purely-aryan Scythes or Sarmatians

 

[seraphim74]

Good point. If Nazis could make the Japanese "honorary Aryans" they could do that with Poles. OTOH, Germans considered a big part of Poland their historical land and wanted it back. Poles of course considered those territories their historical land and wouldn't give them up. So war was inevitable.

And back to the topic. Stalin would gladly invade Poland, Romania, Baltic states, Finland and pretty much everybody. After all communist Soviet Union was suppose to expand bringing "people's rule" to "working masses" of the world. So yes, he would have done it - if he believed he would win. I'm not sure if he was ready to confront whole Europe united against him. So IMHO he would have started with small steps, pretty much like Hitler. An Ukrainian or Belarussian rebelion in Poland, organized by Soviet agents, Red Army enters to support their brothers, but not invading whole Poland, of course not. The same in Romania (Besarbia)... And then...

 

[Tizoc]

I thought the Poles invaded Soviet-controlled Ukraine in order to add it to some kind of Eastern European confederation that could resist the Germans AND the Russians when they got strong again.

It's true - BUT - it wasn't the start of the war between Poland and Soviet Russia. It went like this:
1. Before the armstice of 11.XI.1918 what is today's Belarus was under German control.
2. After the armstice of 11.XI.1918 Germans evacuated from above mentioned territory, leaving a power vacuum. Poles from the west (Poland as of late 1918 consisted of Congress Poland and western Galicia) and Soviets from the east came into Belarus to put it into their control.
3. Polish and Soviet forces clashed in February 1919, when a Polish patrol was shot at by a Soviet patrol near the river Niemen. That's how the war started.
4. During the remaining 1919 Poles pushed the soviets out of most of Belarus, up to river Berezyna. At the same time, Polish taking over Eastern Galicia, and Soviets taking over Ukraine east of river Zbrucz caused the Polish-Soviet front to extend up to Romanian border.
5. During the April and May of 1920 Polish offensive on Ukraine took place.

As can be seen above, the Polish Kiev Offensive wasn't a start of the war, just one of the later stages of said war...

And to support my arguments, obligatory Wikipedia reference:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish-Soviet_War

 

[alt_historian]

Originaly posted by alt_historian

I'm not sure Piłsudski wanted to create a confederation, more a military-economical alliance (with Poland as senior partner, but respecting other countries independence). So perhaps...Warsaw Pact?
...

Heh heh, good one. Or maybe the Poland-Byelorussia-Lithuania-Ukraine Confederation: POBLUC for short.

 

[Wendell]

Heh heh, good one. Or maybe the Poland-Byelorussia-Lithuania-Ukraine Confederation: POBLUC for short.

How about calling it the PLUB Bloc instead?

 

[alt_historian]

Poland-Byelorussia-Lithuania-Ukraine Confederation: POBLUC for short.

How about calling it the PLUB Bloc instead?

Hehe. Maybe UBLiP. Or BLUP. Or UkPoLiBy. There's all sorts of amusing names for this.

Hell, I like the fact that the US President's official Secret Service shorthand title is the POTUS, and the UK version would be the PMOTUKOGBANI. Hmm. P-mott-uck-ogg-barny. Or puh-mot-oo-cog-bahni. Try saying that in a hurry. Hee hee...

I have a strange sense of humour sometimes.