WWI ends like WWII

[JennyB]

The early surrender of the Provisional Government after the abdication of the Tsar (how plausible is this?) and/or the action of a certain Bavarian corporal (Iron Cross, posthumous) leads to an unexpected breakthrough in the Spring Offensive of 1918., and a massacre of American prisoners of war. The resulting atrocities lead to a determination on both sides that the War will not end until the US quits or the cavalry is riding down Unter den Linden.

How does the war play out from there? What happens in Russia?

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

People were pretty sick of fighting the war at the time. Just about everyone who wasn’t a national higher-up just wanted to say, the hell with it, let’s go home.

I don’t know if killing a bunch of POWs is going to strengthen resolve on the Allied side - especially when the POWs are American, latecomers to the war - enough to demand unconditional surrender from the Central Powers.

However, given that the POWs are American, the wrinkles in the US will be more drastic - I’m just not sure which way.

Door number one is that Congress’ postwar way of thinking - basically “the hell with internationalism; we’re going to do us and Europe can fuck off and go away” - becomes MORE pronounced. This probably means a more insular culture in the 1920s and 1930s, but overall there won’t be that much long-term change. Japan is still itching for resources and territory, their leadership still swallows the crazy pills, and unless some switch flips in Japanese leadership and they decide to attack the Russians instead, WWII goes more or less like OTL.

Door number two is that “Remember the POWs” becomes a massive rallying cry and Congress gives more leeway to Wilson in regard to the League of Nations. I don’t imagine it does a lot to deter the Japanese, but it may put the brakes more on the Germans. The sanctions on them probably trend more toward “break their backs and make them rebuild slowly and sanely” and less “keep them down just enough to piss them off and get King Batshit into the top office.” So WWII doesn’t happen as we know it, the US goes heads-up against Japan, and they decide, you know what, Europe may be a bunch of lunatics, but we can shape Asia into our own image. This probably means the KMT plays to at least a draw in the Chinese Civil War, and the Korean War is either a success or leaves a smaller DPRK rump state that probably doesn’t last.

Europe, however, ends up like a bunch of squabbling cousins fighting over Grandpa’s estate and never gets around to the whole European Union thing, and the Soviets agitate in Europe but don’t really do the whole Iron Curtain.

 

[Lalli]

I can't WW1 ending same way as WW2. Pretty much everybody beside generals and nationalist politicians were tired to the war and wanted that to end asap. And all nations were really exhausted and verge of collapse by end of 1918. War can't last many months longer. And taking of Berlin is impossible for everyone. For that they would lost millions of men more. For that you would need make Entente really willingful to crush Germany in all costs and them should be more competent and try something else as pointless disastrous human wave tactics. And Germans should be more fanatic for fighting to bitter end.

 

[Garrison]

The early surrender of the Provisional Government after the abdication of the Tsar (how plausible is this?)

Well the thing was that the Provisional Government is inclined to fight on and I can't see them surrendering much earlier. Even if they did its probably to late in the year for the Germans to mount an offensive in the west and in late 1917 the British forces were stronger than Spring 1918 and not in the middle of a major reorganization.

and/or the action of a certain Bavarian corporal (Iron Cross, posthumous) leads to an unexpected breakthrough in the Spring Offensive of 1918., and a massacre of American prisoners of war.

Hitler is a non entity in 1918 and no heroic mad charge is going to change the outcome of the Spring Offensive. And there is no way the German army is going to carry out a large scale massacre of US troops.

The resulting atrocities lead to a determination on both sides that the War will not end until the US quits or the cavalry is riding down Unter den Linden.

Well given the atrocities are vanishingly unlikely and the only way you get the war running into 1919 is if the Hindenburg and Ludendorff don't start talking about an armistice. Even then its debatable given the state of the German home front.

How does the war play out from there? What happens in Russia?

If the Entente has to fight its way to Berlin then expect peace terms that make the Versailles Treaty look like a slap on the wrist. As to Russia the Bolsheviks are still likely to take over and its going to look very much like OTL.

 

[Garrison]

I can't WW1 ending same way as WW2. Pretty much everybody beside generals and nationalist politicians were tired to the war and wanted that to end asap. And all nations were really exhausted and verge of collapse by end of 1918. War can't last many months longer. And taking of Berlin is impossible for everyone. For that they would lost millions of men more. For that you would need make Entente really willingful to crush Germany in all costs and them should be more competent and try something else as pointless disastrous human wave tactics. And Germans should be more fanatic for fighting to bitter end.

I should point out that the Generals and politicians on the Entente side were more than willing to end the war in 1918, so long as this could be achieved without the Germans simply being able to regroup and try again in 1920. The Armistice terms achieved that and the Versailles Treaty would have done the same, if it had been enforced rigorously.