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  1. AHC: The Confederacy allied with the USA by 1939

    That seems relatively unlikely. Britain has too much to loose while France has not enough interest. I think that you could well have an independent Confederacy that becomes an ally of the North, a sort of client of the larger wealthier neighbour.

  2. What's the REAL reason Polynesians didn't colonise Australia?

    If there was an Incan maritime tradition, then yes, this might easily have led to more exchanges between South America and Polynesia. Much depends on when this was activated, and how.

  3. AHC: Make Russian an accepted part of the west.

    I think that would be enough. If Russians looked at Ukraine and understood that country would resist any Russian imperial move, then that would discourage Russia's leaders from making great imperial gambles. This, in turn, would have the effect of keeping Russian revisionism from being likely to...

  4. AHC: Make Russian an accepted part of the west.

    I think that it might have been possible for Russia to be, with a post-1991 POD, at least as Westernized as Turkey. For that to happen, I think you would need to somehow contrive a Ukrainian consensus in favour of independence from Russia, with at least a strong leaning towards the West, and for...

  5. WI: Belgium didn't exist

    I do think that it might be possible that Dutch policymaking would be changed if the Dutch state was intrinsically different from OTL, as a territorially larger state with a much larger population and much more industry. This would be a quantitative change of such a nature that it would be...

  6. WI: Belgium didn't exist

    The United Netherlands could also have significant issues with political instability. If the revolt get s suppressed, you still have a majority of the kingdom's population being discontented and potentially separatist.

  7. Interesting WI for post-1945 Scandinavia

    The Scandinavian defense union project failed because Scandinavians, especially the Danes and Norwegians, did not think even a united region could stand up to great powers. In the case of a Communist Finland, I think it much likelier than Sweden will follow its Scandinavian neighbours into NATO.

  8. Interesting WI for post-1945 Scandinavia

    I think it entirely possible, then, that you could not only get more of South Schleswig's population identifying as Danish in that scenario, but that you might not get a much larger German minority. Danes speaking German as a home language is an imaginable category.

  9. Interesting WI for post-1945 Scandinavia

    Was there still some potential ambiguity about ethnic identity in South Schleswig, perhaps, people of mixed ancestry considering re identifying ethnically at a time when a German identification seemed unwise?

  10. What if Russia didn't take Outer Manchuria and Haishenwai/Vladivostock?

    I do think that if you keep greater Manchuria under the Qing, that could plausibly lessen the geopolitical pressure on Korea. A country not under imminent threat of Russian occupation might well be less of a Japanese target.

  11. Can a South Nigerian state survive after Arewa (North Nigeria) breaks off?

    The north would have a majority of the Nigerian population, but it would be quite poor.

  12. What does a Finlandized Eastern Europe look like?

    Continuing this discussion, the question becomes how much rapprochement between this central/eastern Europe and western Europe becomes possible. I would suggest that we might be able to look towards southern Europe, with the Iberian republics and Yugoslavia and Greece being mostly outside the...

  13. Saddam Hussein Does Not Invade Kuwait

    80% of infinity is still infinity. Given how dysfunctional the non-oil sectors of the Iraqi economy war, since understandably no one in business wanted to make big decisions in case they got purged, counting on agriculture or tourism to replace oil would be a terrible idea. Hell, even if he was...

  14. Saddam Hussein Does Not Invade Kuwait

    Saddam retained that position of prominence, despite his many failures as a leader, precisely because he was coasting on his proclaimed record and Iraq's prior successes. He was a persistent threat despite that. He was a monstrous failure as a leader, but I think it is a mistake to understand...

  15. Saddam Hussein Does Not Invade Kuwait

    That is the wrong way to view it. Yes, of course he caused huge suffering, but he did legitimately imagine that he would be able to make Iraq a real power. He was incompetent but that is a separate issue. $10 billion would not begin to cover the debt, which was close to $40 billion to the Gulf...

  16. Saddam Hussein Does Not Invade Kuwait

    He actually does. His whole credibility came from him positioning himself as a great Arab leader, the heir to Nasser who would make Iraq a world power. How would it look if his legacy was to leave a wrecked country?

  17. Effects of greater European emigration to North America 1600 - 1800?

    Another big reason why you did not get a colonization of North America by northwestern Europeans is because most of these counties were locked in different sorts of wars, civil wars or wars of independence or dynastic conflicts or straight up political repression or simple international wars. If...

  18. Saddam Hussein Does Not Invade Kuwait

    Um, what time frame are you talking about? If we are talking about 1990, then the only option facing Iraq if not a Kuwaiti adventure would be economic catastrophe. Trying to default on debt would lead a massive collapse in Iraq consumption, cratering Iraqi living standards even as the massive...

  19. Saddam Hussein Does Not Invade Kuwait

    The thing to keep in mind is that Iraq arguably needed to absorb Kuwait with its oil wealth because it has no other options. Iraq had not only been ravaged by the war with Iran but plunged deeply into debt to pay for its conflict. The costs of reconstruction and debt repayment were huge, the...

  20. AHC: Large, more creolized American states like South Louisiana or Acadiana

    Enduring creolization between colonizers and the colonized is only really possible when the local rate of immigration by colonizers is slow enough not to overwhelm the populations of the colonized. If that happened, rather than having a new synthesis you just end up reproducing the culture of...
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