A heartbeat away from greatness: a timeline of missed opportunities

I would pull for the Austria collapsing before Prussia can mobilize, some realignment among the resulting states, then a round 2 when a British backed Prussia challenges the Victors. Massive bonus points if the US civil war starts up on Schedule (which seems likely without major alterations in the Domestic political situation) and the USA and CSA get drawn in on opposite sides. Even better, the American Civil War if the American Civil War is actually the Trigger for round 2, with a newly assertive France backing the Confederacy and the UK the Union (which probably means a relatively quick Union victory, and the Special Relationship 80 years early with the balance of power inverted).

iddt3

That could be an interesting idea. If Napoleon is so confident about his position in Europe he still plays in Mexico, presumably with someone other than Maximilian as his client emperor. That would upset the US but not restrained by friendship with Britain he might try and counter the US by supporting the south.

I think it would require that Prussia did mobilise and got defeated. Otherwise he's going to be rather more concerned about what Britain and a Prussian led Germany are likely to do.

Steve
 

yboxman

Banned
German liberal opinion and Prussian mobilization

An ifew nteresting articles about OTL Prussian mobilization: http://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/cgi-bin/paperspast?a=d&d=NENZC18590831.2.11.2

http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/13030065

And another some interesting sources about Prussian organization in 1859 prior to Moltke's reforms: http://www.avalanchepress.com/PrussianOrganization.php

http://books.google.co.il/books?id=...nepage&q=Prussia in 1859 mobilization&f=false

http://faroutliers.wordpress.com/2012/07/07/piedmont-and-prussia-parallels/

Some interesting portions about political developments leading to Prussia's military reforms and an interpetation of the events leading to the Polish revolt of 1863 which may be relevent to developments ITTL: http://www.cristoraul.com/ENGLISH/readinghall/MODERN-HISTORY/1792-1878/CHAPTER_XXIII.html

How would German liberals generally view Prussian intervention on Behalf of Austria? I imagine they would be more favored towards intervention Vs Russia (Reactionary) than France (radical). How about unification of a Pan-German intervention force under Prussia? Would Public opinion in the smaller German states favor Prussia and urge their governments to ally with her?
 
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An ifew nteresting articles about OTL Prussian mobilization: http://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/cgi-bin/paperspast?a=d&d=NENZC18590831.2.11.2

http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/13030065

And another some interesting sources about Prussian organization in 1859 prior to Moltke's reforms: http://www.avalanchepress.com/PrussianOrganization.php

http://books.google.co.il/books?id=...nepage&q=Prussia in 1859 mobilization&f=false

http://faroutliers.wordpress.com/2012/07/07/piedmont-and-prussia-parallels/

Some interesting portions about political developments leading to Prussia's military reforms and an interpetation of the events leading to the Polish revolt of 1863 which may be relevent to developments ITTL: http://www.cristoraul.com/ENGLISH/readinghall/MODERN-HISTORY/1792-1878/CHAPTER_XXIII.html

How would German liberals generally view Prussian intervention on Behalf of Austria? I imagine they would be more favored towards intervention Vs Russia (Reactionary) than France (radical). How about unification of a Pan-German intervention force under Prussia? Would Public opinion in the smaller German states favor Prussia and urge their governments to ally with her?

yboxman

A bit busy but a quick skim through some of those references are enlightening. Sounds like there was a fair level of mistrust of Prussia but that in the developing crisis, with Austria collapsing desperation could set in. They will be reluctant to accept Prussian leadership, especially since it will probably have a price, but with Austria in no state to provide an alternative they could have no choice. Also if, with their help, Prussia rescues Austria from complete collapse, then through Prussia will be strengthened there will be something left of Austria to provide a counter. [Not saying that would be the result but could be what some will be thinking].

Sounds like the Prussians have already partially mobilised on the Rhine but that this has been less than successful.

The crucial factor might be what Napoleon is doing and how threatening France seems to be to the Rhine region. That is probably more likely to get a response from the smaller German states that events in distant Hungary and Galaica, which don't really affect them or include sizeable German populations.

Steve
 

yboxman

Banned
#11: Blood and steel.



July 20th, Potsdam, Kingdom of Prussia

"No". The word is spoken evenly but reverberates with force nonetheless. Mantuefell blinks. "I beg your pardon, your royal highness?".

"I said no." Repeats prince William. "Too much time has been wasted by this council and by the mummery of pretending the king… my brother is still capable of making decisions".

"Nontheless, your royal highness, your brother may yet by the grace of god recover and under those circumstances protocol and tradition demand we refrain from…".

"Protocol be damned. The Russians are riding for Vienna. Poland is nearly united under their rule and Posen may soon be seething with rebellion. Our royal kinsmen is besieged by an upstart who dreams of remaking the continent in his image just as his uncle did. No. Decisive action is required and this council is unable to take it. I expect this council to issue me full powers of regent to deal with the situation until such time the King is determined as recovered by his phycisians."

"The council shall certainly deliberate upon the proper course of action to be taken given these trying times…"

"Do so. Be aware however that by noon tomorrow I will either be pronounced regent or I will disassociate myself from all contact with this government and leave Berlin. I will grant no more legitimacy to this farce (1)"

July 24th Berlin, Kingdom of Prussia

Some call Helmut Von Moltke a machine, a gray mechanism of steel incapable of emotion. But what do such maligners know of the joy of a well conducted maneuver, the ecstasy a truly functional logistical office, the sheer mathematical beauty of an army operating perfectly in accordance to a timetable?

What can they know of the fear? The fear that the crystalline palaces of ideas and charts he has constructed in his mind will fail to bear up under the chaotic weight of war? If they did they would no doubt sneer and claim that what he feared was their scorn. The loss of his as yet undeserved reputation as a strategic genius. Fools. What use had he as reputation except as a means to an end? And what end was more worthy than seeing the beauty of the mind made manifest on that most chaotic of palettes, on war? No, Moltke was no machine, he was an artist who wished to bask in the glow of one completed masterpiece- a truely Illustrious battle (2)

How soon? Asks his Liege. "Two months for full Mobilization against France. Two months and a week if we wish to concentrate the full weight of our forces against Russia. Railways and depots in the East remain lacking.".

"Can Austria last for Two months?"

"Unlikely. But it doesn't have to."

William blinks. Like all Prussian nobility he holds a commission and unlike the more decadent lands of the West he has in fact learned the basics of military science. But this situation goes beyond his basic training.

"explain"

"The cream of the French Military is trapped in Italy. They cannot leave without abandoning their gains and credibility Vs their allies. Covering Paris is the Army of the Rhine, less than 150,000 troops. We can force French withdrawal from Italy simply by concentrating our forces on the Rhine. It will require a minimum of three weeks, more likely four, for them to disengage and return to our frontier. Therefore the Austrians need not last two months. One month is sufficient. After that we shall be able to force the French to withdraw if we so wish. However…"

"Yes?"

"First, there are our own forces to consider. The growth of the armed forces has not kept pace with the growth of the Prussian population or finances and can easily be expanded if a political decision is made to do so, even more so if the British shall offer us an appropriate subsidy. However, that requires time (3). If we must fight a war then it is better that we fight some years from now and not today.

Second, I have a plan which will permit us to mobilize our forces in half the time, striking a blow against our foes before they have a chance to prepare. This will place us in a reversal of our position today where the enemy, even the Russians!, Have had a chance to fully mobilize whereas we as starting from far behind in the lines. Again, this plan requires time to implement- it is irrelevent for this war.

And Third, the dangers of a war on two fronts are immense. Ordinarily, my plan would be to fall to the Rhine in the West and strike a swift blow against Russia in Poland before they can mobilize, reaching decision swiftly and then falling back on France. This a risky proposition but what I am proposing here, if we should embark on the path to war is even more risky. I have no doubts of our ability to beat Russia in the field. However, unless we enjoy a substantial numerical advantage we may find ourselves stalemated in the West and being forced to abandon all of Prussia east of the Vistula, even the Oder, to the Russian hordes. I only dare recommend it because Russian logistics are so terrible and the quality of their armies so low, that it would take them such a long time to advance sufficient number of troops to overwhelm even superficial defenses that we have a reasonable chance of reaching decision in the West before the situation in the East in unrecoverable.

And Fourth…."

Prince William is nodding, hearing his own dilemmas clarified into more concise and clear cut terms- "Fourth?"

Could Moltke be hesitating? "What is the purpose of war?"

William is slightly taken aback. This is not a question he would expect from Moltke! But then he remembers his lessons. "War… War is the continuation of policy by other means"(4).

"Yes! But what is your policy? Not only in this particular crisis but in general?"

One reason Moltke has not risen quicker, William considers, is that when lost in pedantry he tends to forget that Lest Majeste can be committed by Omission as well as Commission. The reason he has risen as quickly as he had is that unlike other couriers he cuts to the heart of the matter. A prince, a king, needs such a man- but perhaps no more than one. William considers, attempting to order his thoughts. He wishes to recover and preserve the prestige of Prussia, prevent a Polish uprising in Posen and the constant irritant which a semi-unified Poland to the West would be, maintain the Balance of power in Europe, strengthen Germany's position in Europe, prevent Domestic revolution at home and abroad, stop this second Napoleon upstart from dominating the continent, Ultimately unite Germany under Prussia's domination… what does all this have in common?

" The purpose of Prussia's policy is to increase the power of the state against other states and increase the power of the ruler within the state"

"So- and how is this power measured?"

Again, William ponders. Power is measured by many factors, finance, prestige, international position , but ultimately…

"The ability to impose more force upon those outside the state than they may impose on the state"

"So how does Prussia gain by preserving Austria? And can we make the same gain by adopting a different policy?" (5)

"That is a political matter, not a military one"(6)

"Of course. But from a strictly military point of view I must point out that preserving Austrian rule in Italy and Hungary would add to Prussia's Military commitments and strengthen neither Prussia nor, on the short term, Austria. Some prestige would be gained of course… But could a more concrete addition to the strength of Prussia, which counterbalances that of France and Russia not be made in a different wise?"

William is growing impatient. Moltke is speaking far out of line (7) "Make a clear suggestion or go back to your timetables. I am sure the mobilization requires your attention" (8)

"First, issue a declaration, before the mobilization is completed, but no earlier than two weeks hence, that Prussia will view any invasion of Austrian lands lying within the German confederation as a declaration of war on all of Germany. This will free up The Austrians from defending the Moravian (9) and Tyrol fronts and perhaps get them to pull out units from areas they cannot hope to defend. From a political viewpoint it will be of course better for the Diet in Frankfort to issue the declaration but… (10)

Second, inform Franz Jozef that you cannot commit to restoring his rule over Italy and Hungary unless he places his military forces under Prussian command… for the duration of the crisis of course.

Third, call upon all other German states to mobilize their troops and move them to the borders of the confederation- under your command of course. Perhaps Saxony can even be induced to declare war in favor of Austria- it has no border with Russia or France to defend after all"

And fourth…"

Again, Moltke hesitates, William leans closer, encouraging him "and fourth?"

"Prussia contains less than half of Germany's manhood, excluding Austria. It Genarates less than half of Germany's gold. But it has considerably more than half of Germany's armed forces. From a strictly military point of view, it would be a low risk and low cost affair to remedy that imbalance in the case of states who refuse to head your call to arms such as, say, Hanover, especially if our troops are mobilized and passing through such states on their way to the Rhine front. And it shall be extremely difficult for Austria, France or Russia to intervene in time with their forces on the plains of Italy and Hungary" (11)

Prince William leaned back stunned, his mind flooded with ideas and options he had not dared to consider before (12)



(1) Pretty much OTL- except OTL William waited for almost a year of ineffectual government to pass before he gave his ultimatum. TTL the situation causes him to act more swiftly and less politely. The straw which breaks the camel's back is news of the Battle of Mohac and the Habsburg abandonment of Hungary.
(2) If Prussia has a secret weapon which can pull them through this crisis it is this man.
(3) OTL Moltke would double(!) the size of the armed forces within five years of the 1859 war. And he would indeed halve the time of mobilization. But all this is five years away. In fact the state of the Prussian army is slightly worse TTL becau. Mind you, the Prussian army is still quite impressive. In spite of having a population half the size of france and a slightly lower GDP/Capita and industrialization indexes the 1859 Prussian army is 80% the size of the French.
(4) Clausewitz of course. Moltke's Guru.
(5) Good question, right? Well OTL the short answer is that destroying Austria increases the prestige of both "the revolution" and of France and they are viewed as the greatest danger to Prussia. Besides, in so much as "Prussia" is viewed as a subcomponent of "Germany" and one "German" state controls non German territory that is viewed as an extension of Prussia's power. However, after Olmutz it is increasingly clear the only way for Prussia to gain control of German power is over the dead body of Austria.
(6) Though in Prussia there is a less clear definition between the civilian and military spheres.
(7) And I'm obviously speaking far too much through his mouth. Consider this post to be the summary of several stormy sessions amongst different Political factions. At the end of the day however, the political course of action depends upon military realities and Moltke is best suited to vocalize them.
(8) It does actually. This isn't the clockwork operation of 1866 or 1870. The 1859 mobilization OTL was a FUBAR
(9) You can consider this to be a retrocon for "The Russian steamroller"
(10) But nobody takes them seriously. And they never issue anything without months of deliberation
(11) Why did Prussia not try this OTL in 1859? Bismark urged it BTW. One reason is honor, the sancity of treaties, the rights of fellow kings, etc. But the other is that Russia was not committed to the struggle and would intervene, Britain was not committed to an anti-French course and would not be pleased (TTL? They will be pissed about Hanover but if they view Austria as a lost cause then a united Germany seems to them the best way to maintain a favorable balance of power on the continent) and the German public opinion viewed the Franco-Austrian war as a limited struggle rather than an existential one- not one that would justify a Prussian takeover of Germany (would they view it as such TTL? No. I don't think so. But William might fool himself into believing they do). Besides- Austria wasn't on the rocks in 1859. It had fought France to a near stalemate. Both would kiss and make up to prevent the kind of thing Moltke is discussing.
(12) Did I mention I'm simplifying the interaction? And no, Moltke is not the penultimate source of these Ideas. The ultimate source will be revealed in one of the upcoming posts . Also, I'm not saying that these ideas will be adopted by Prussia completely- just that they will be bandied about far more seriously than OTL and will affect policy.
 
yboxman

Fascinating exchange. I was thinking Von Moltke was going to suggest Prussia sits out the current crisis, and it might still end up that way. However some fast thinking and actions could persuade Russia and France to settle for moderate gains, although leaving Austria greatly reduced in power, to Prussia's benefit. Even better possibly in the short term it leaves Austria fighting on in a longer and even more wearing struggle.

With the idea of Prussia insisting its leadership be accepted as the price for intervention that faces two problems with the Hapsburg's. Both its a huge loss of prestige for them and their emperor is pretty much cut off in a besieged fortress so who and how do they make such a decision?

It took a 2nd read, especially of the footnotes but is Von Moltke proposing annexing Hanover, as occurred in 1866 OTL? I was initially think just some forced extortions of men/money as the Prussians march through but not so sure how.

Steve
 

yboxman

Banned
yboxman

Fascinating exchange. I was thinking Von Moltke was going to suggest Prussia sits out the current crisis, and it might still end up that way. However some fast thinking and actions could persuade Russia and France to settle for moderate gains, although leaving Austria greatly reduced in power, to Prussia's benefit. Even better possibly in the short term it leaves Austria fighting on in a longer and even more wearing struggle.

With the idea of Prussia insisting its leadership be accepted as the price for intervention that faces two problems with the Hapsburg's. Both its a huge loss of prestige for them and their emperor is pretty much cut off in a besieged fortress so who and how do they make such a decision?

It took a 2nd read, especially of the footnotes but is Von Moltke proposing annexing Hanover, as occurred in 1866 OTL? I was initially think just some forced extortions of men/money as the Prussians march through but not so sure how.

Steve

I was sort of leaving that deliberately ambiguous;). The basic Idea is to call on willing states to contribute to the war effort under "temporary" Prussian leadership- then use control of their resources, including those protecting the regime in each state to "re-negotiate" the articles of the German confederation, so as to enshrine permanent Prussian control of the military (and naval?) forces and possibly foreign policy. The result will be, if it works out as planned, a Confederation similliar to OTL North German confederation but in which Prussia isn't quite as large and where it's ruler has less formal power than the German emperor did OTL.

Of course States who are stringy with their contributions or who refuse to hand over command... well, their rulers are going to have another choice to make under very different circumstances. And I do intend to roll the dice to see which way each ruler jumps and if he gets caught.

With Austria the Idea is to string them along in order to keep the Franco-Russians occupied (don't sign a peace treaty, we"ll be right along to help you, really!) so as to Give Prussia time to consolidate their Position in KleinDeutchland. Including Austria (and Bavaria and Baden and other South German states) in the new, Prussia dominated Confederation may or may not be planned, may or may not be resisted by Austria (which Austria? FJ, Maximillian or minister/general X?) and the others, may or may not be backed by Britain and may or may not result in an immediate Franco-Russian invasion. Same goes for Kleindeutchland. Everything's still up in the air and I'm open to plausability checks.

For that matter Moltke's proposals may or may not be adopted by William. He's just seized power in Prussia, trying to seize power in Germany by what amounts to a coup may be a bit too much for him.

Next Posts will be concerned, in no particular order, with FJ in his besiged fortress, Dimitri Milutin at the gates of Vienna, the Ethnic war in Hungary-Banat-Transylvania, The probably not so mysterious source of Moltke's suggestions and intrigues in high places, The court of queen Victoria, The mental state of Napoleon III, and, possibly, a certain island in Puget sound.
 
yboxman

Just a thought. What's the state of the Danubian principalities? I think as a result of the Crimean war Ottoman rule was largely restored but are they restless. Or possibly the Sultan is worried about the rise of Russian power and thinking that it might be time to step in himself, or at least probably talking earnestly with the British ambassador.

Think there are telegram lines connecting most major capitals in Europe at this point although where they run and how many may have been severed accidentally or deliberately by the conflict which could mean some delay in communications.

Steve
 

yboxman

Banned
Balkans and telegrams

yboxman

Just a thought. What's the state of the Danubian principalities? I think as a result of the Crimean war Ottoman rule was largely restored but are they restless. Or possibly the Sultan is worried about the rise of Russian power and thinking that it might be time to step in himself, or at least probably talking earnestly with the British ambassador.

Think there are telegram lines connecting most major capitals in Europe at this point although where they run and how many may have been severed accidentally or deliberately by the conflict which could mean some delay in communications.

Steve

The Danubian principalities are defacto united under cuza in Febuary 1859 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandru_Ioan_Cuza. I can't see how Fredrick William's later heart attack affects the outcome of political manuverings in Romania so I'm letting it stand.

De-Jure they remain under Ottoman Suzreinty and they draw a considerable sum of Romania's revenues. This will not change until 1878 and unless the Ottoman empire joins the war against Russia or Russia undergoes total meltdown I don't see that changing. OTOH The way he unified Moldava and Wallachia (he was elected as prince in both seprately. Call it a personal union) is not accepted by either the Ottomans or the Russians (who OTL had nothing to say about it since they were in the doghouse).Napoleon III supported him (verbally though).

TTL BTW Curza is stirring the pot in Transylvania as he did OTL in 1848. He doesn't have an army so he's not realy much of an independent actor but he may end up being a russian puppet, an Ottoman victim or a "man on a horse" who unifies Romania in the general chaos surrounding him.


Serbia is more under the Ottoman thumb. The Turks have some troops in the country and they are supposed to be responsible for foreign relations, customs, etc. In practice it's a tug of war between them, the Habsburgs and the locals. OTL they killed some civilians in Belgrade, suffered a low level insurgency, and left under Great power pressure in 1867. TTL with Habsburg rule disintigrating they may see a chance to cancel the country's autonomy as well as that of Montenegro (engaged in war against ottomans 1861-62 OTL and in a series of wars thereafter up to 1878. Great Powers prevented Ottoman reconquest. TTL?) .

I know there are telegram lines connecting St Petersburg to Berlin in 1859 so I assume the same is true for every other continental capital except perhaps Constantinopole, Belgrade and Bucharest. Is there an underwater Cable to London? I assume so but don't know. I don't really see the conflict severing the telegram lines (didn't OTL as far as I know) except in clusterfuck areas like Hungary.

However, since you expressed an interest would you like to take the honors and research/write a post on developments in the Balkans and the Ottoman empire? I basicaly see them staying the hell out of this conflict unless the British get involved even then I think they'll hesitate very much unless a lull in the fighting gives them a chance to sign a mutual defense pact without being overrun.
 
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yboxman

Well that comment back-fired.:eek:;) I will see if I can do something tomorrow, although I have a few other things on and Saturday I'm visiting my mum for a fortnight so will be out of touch until the new year.

Steve
 

iddt3

Donor
iddt3

That could be an interesting idea. If Napoleon is so confident about his position in Europe he still plays in Mexico, presumably with someone other than Maximilian as his client emperor. That would upset the US but not restrained by friendship with Britain he might try and counter the US by supporting the south.

I think it would require that Prussia did mobilise and got defeated. Otherwise he's going to be rather more concerned about what Britain and a Prussian led Germany are likely to do.

Steve
Or perhpas a Prussia that France believes is preoccupied with integrating Germany and is countered by Russia. Napoleoon III just pulled off his Xanatos gambit, I can certainly see initial success making him far more willing to risk a second time.
 

yboxman

Banned
#12 The Habsburg in the high castle

True to my word I've determined the outcome of both the siege of Pischiera and Franz Joseph's reaction to it by a combination of plausibility checks and analysis -enjoy.

Topography, Transportation and the advantages and disadvantages of the defender, Colonel Philippe Petain 1890 :

It is not necessary to enumerate the myriad political considerations behind the decision of Franz Josef to withdraw to the Quadrilateral or the decision of Napoleon the III to order marshal Regnaud to reduce those forts with little regard to attendant casualties (1). Why however, did Franz Josef insist on both entrenching his own forces in the Quadrilateral and on remaining with them? Far less forces would have been required to hold the alpine passes of the Tyrol and the Isonozo against the Franco-Italian armies whereas the farther the French armies advanced to the East the more vulnerable Paris would have become to the threat of Prussian mobilization. As for the emperor himself, he had clearly demonstrated that he might better serve his nation by representing the interests of Vienna to both the German confederation members, and especially Prussia, to the North and the Fractious and increasingly independent minded Croats to the South.

The political considerations contributing to Franz Josef's decision have been enumerated at lengh elsewhere (2). But the military concerns alone are sufficient to answer these questions. The answer to both resides not in the physical but in the moral realm of military affairs. An army is most enthusiastic when on the attack, regardless of the odds(3). Less so when it defends a stout, well defended postion to which it may form an attachment and affection of sorts. On retreat however a defeated army may well fall apart. And after the Battles of Solefino and Cerliagi the Austrian army was a defeated army indeed. All the more so since the number of soldiers originating from rebellious portions of the empire was quite high. A retreat through the countryside of Venetia, exposed to the Scorn of Italian peasants eager to be rid of Habsburg rule would have eviscerated the army. The same applies to Franz Josef's decision to remain with his troops. A sovereign of a victorious army, who has demonstrated his military genius might justly retire to the capital and attend to the urgent matters of state (4). But a defeated army, at least in that generation could only be kept in the field should the sovereign demonstrate his own valor and willingness to share the risks he demanded of his own men.

All the more so given the particular situation. The men of the Austrian army knew by then, deep in their bones, that they had no more hope of victory on their own. No hope of glory. They knew that they were being asked to hold a fortress until help might arrive but they did not share in the calculations and knowledge of their sovereign concerning the nature and realistic expectations of such assistance. Nor, of course could this knowledge be imparted to them. But by remaining with his men the emperor demonstrated that he was confident of their position being eventually relieved.

Having reviewed the moral concerns of the siege, let us now consider the material considerations dictating the nature of the grinding engagement. The dominant feature of that engagement were, of course, the four famous fortresses of the quadrilateral (5). The key feature of these fortress was that by their positioning and geographical features it was considered near impossible to take one without first knocking out the support provided by it's sister forts.

Peschiera. - Peschiera was a small fortress situated on an island formed by the Mincio at its issue from the lake of Garda. At the time of the Venetian republic it was a simple pentagon, to which the French, while they occupied the country, added three lunettes, forming a kind of crownwork without curtains round the conicalline called Mandella, which commands the left bank of the river. These had since been strengthened by a covered way running along anatural ditch, by which they are protected. On the left bank of the Mincio there was an extensive work called the Salvi, covering the immediate approaches to the river. Since 1848 the Austrians have extended the fortifications to beyond the island, and have crowned an adjoining eminence with, eight lunettes, on the plan of that of the Mandella. All these works together constituted an entrenched camp capable of receiving a considerable number of troops, and their chief importance lies in their threatening the flank of any army attempting, to cross the Mincio near Goito del Valeggio. In addition was the flotilla of the lake of Garda, which could throw troops across the lake in a very short time. Moreover, there was a system of sluices by which the level of the lake may be considerably raised, so as to produce, at a given moment, a vast impetus along the Mincio, sufficient to sweep away any pontoon or trestle-'bridges thrown over it by the enemy.

It was to this fort to which Franz Josef retreated with the bulk of hwas army following the disaster at Solefino. He decided that Peschiera, given a strong garrwason, would not only be capable of holding out indefinitely but would prevent any attempt by the French to cross the Mincio river. In This, however, he was proven quite mistaken.

Mantua.-Mantua lies, like Peschiera, on an island formed by the Mincio, much larger, how- ever, than the former, since it covers about 124 acres. Close to it there was another called the Te, which was used as a Champ de Mars. Both lie in the midst of a lake formed by the widening of the river, and are about 850 yards from either bank. Here Mantua was unapproachable, except by five narrow causeways, viz., two on the left bank, and three on the right. The fortifications of -Mantua would be insignificant were it not for the protectedion afforded by the lake. This may indeed be tapped, as was done in the last century, but the only result was the formation of a morass, emitting a most offensive stench, and more impassable by an army than the lake itself. The causeways are defended by three forts : the . St. George to the east, and Pradella and Pictoli to the left. The latter was built by Na-poleon I. Austria has added little to these fortifications, except a few mines. Mantua, though considered the key of Italy, was too un- healthy and too far from the defiles of the Alps, whence reinforcements and provwasions must arrive, to stand alone ; hence Verona had been elected as the great central depot of the army.

Following the Battle of Cerliagi Mantua found itself deprived of the strong garrison enjoyed by Peschiera. Due to the splendidness of it's natural defenses however This was thought to be a reasonable risk until some reinforcements could be rushed from the central point of the quadrilateral- Verona.


Verona.-This city was situated at the issue of The Adige from the Alpine passes, and has received more extensive fortifications, the cost of which amounted in 1848 to l8 millions of florins, now swelled to at least 25 millions of florins. Such large sums, spent within that small compass, have contributed considerably to attach the Veronese to the Austrian rule; so that here the Itallian armies were not likely to meet with the sympathy of the population." Verona possessed 55,000 inhabitants at the time, and can boast many valuable Roman antiquities, showing that it has at all times been considered an important strategical point. The old Italian fortifications form the groundwork of the modern works. On the right bank of the Adige the old wall had been strengthened with eight bastions on the system of Carnot. The approach to the town on the river side was covered Hy Fort St. Proculo ; a little further from the town was Fort Hess ; but these works being in-sufficient to harbour a large army, an entrenched ramp has been added on an alluvial plain aban- doned by the waters of the Adige. This plain is surrounded with a series of strong redoubts, at distances of about 600 yards from each other. Nearly all these redoubts are trapzoid, the larger base being turnedtowards the camp, and each redoubt was provided with bomb-proof barracks. The length of This fortified camp was three kilometres ; it was two in breadth. On the left bank the old walls, .originally erected by the Emperor Gallienus, and at a much later period repaired by the celebrated engineer, San Michèle, have been strengthened with bastions. Fort San Felice, consisting of a .continued redan line crowning an inaccessible rock, an offshoot of the Tyrolese Alps, completely commands the town. The approaches to the fort are defended by various trenches.

Legnano.-Legnano was a small fortress, serving as a link between Mantua and Verona ; its qreat advantage was that it possessed a double bridge-head, whence sallies may be made on both sides of the Adige. The 1859 fortifications were erected by Napoleon I.

What these defenses failed to take into account was the dislocation to Austrian forces resulting from the disaster of Solefino (6), the lack of sufficient reinforcements and supplies from Vienna due to the Russian invasion of Galicia and Hungary, and, most of all, the projection of French Naval power up the Adige and Mincio rivers.

Following the repulse of the Austrian counterattack in the second battle of Solefino, The relatively unexhausted Piedmontese forces were sent to storm the fortress in cooperation with a number of steamers detached from the French fleet in the Adriatic. With a depleted garrison, relatively weak fortifications, and it's natural defenses rendered irrelevant by the French Naval force, the fortress of Mantua fell by July 8th (7), whereas it's link to Verona, Legnano fell a fortnight later to a much larger naval taskforce employing artillery which considerabely outranged that which the fortress employed.



With the crossing of the Mincio and the Adige thus secured, the Franco-Italian forces threatened to fully surround Pischiera, prompting Franz Josef to belatedly attempt to withdraw to Verona. This attempt however, was repulsed with heavy casualties on both sides, leaving Franz Joseph utterly cut out from his crumbling empire.


(1) Which means we've already been over it or I'm going to go over it in the next post.
(2) In short, he's concerned about how withdrawal from Venetia would look at court, how it will affect the Prussian willingness to help, and how it will affect the post-war settlement.
(3) The doctrine of offensive l'utterance started in 1859 OTL…. Without revealing too much let's just say that it hasn't died out in France TTL by 1890.
(4) The reference is to Napoleon III and Petain is adroitly sidestepping rumors about Napoleon's Nervous breakdown after the battle. Remember, this is A French Historian and as OTL Petain is no republican.
(5) http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/485931/Quadrilateral, http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/1197203 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadrilatero
(6) The Austirans bleed the garrisons of the fortresses dry for the Battle of Solefino.
(7) OTL but a bit sooner

mantua.jpg
 
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yboxman

Banned
#13b The Habsburg in the high castle: Franz Joseph's run

It's been a while but here's the conclusion of Franz Joseph's crucible- it's a long one:):



It may be useful to consult google maps of lake Garda to understand how this battle plays out: https://maps.google.co.il/maps?hl=e...=il&ei=oQ3gULqdE4fVtAbHn4G4BA&ved=0CB4Q8gEwAA

August 12th 1859 19:00, Province of Lombardy Austrian empire (recognized)/ Kingdom of Northern Italy (proclaimed), fortress of Pischiera

Two men are standing by in a small room in a heart of the massive fortress. One is old, well past his prime. He is standing, tense, a few steps behind the second man as he gazes at the window overlooking lake Gardo. Though the second man is yet young his visage is grim and tired, the image of a man who have suffered a series of defeats, personal as well as those experienced by the rest of the 80,000 man army besieged at Pischiera.

The setting sun is not visible form the eastwards facing aperture but it’s last rays paint the lake of Gardo an unsettling bloody color. "It won't be long now" notes the older man. The rumbling of heavy artillery, far heavier than anything the planners of the fortress had conceived might be fired at it (1) punctuates his words, followed by a massive water spout as the shell overshoots the docks.

"No." Agrees the younger, careworn man. "If it is to be done at all it must be done tonight, before the docks are ranged (2). I have already prepared the necessary instructions and a messenger. He will leave on a fast boat before the moon rises"

The older man turns. "You could go instead. If the plan should fail, if you should fall tomorrow, or even worse, fall captive, Austria falls as well. Are you set on this course of action?"

Franz Josef nods "The messenger's instructions nullify these risks. As for myself… I have realized that my errors have cost Austria dearly. Our situation would have been better if I had listened to my brother and made concessions to the Italians earlier. Or listened to you and avoided a set piece battle with Napoleon. Surely it would not have been worse."

"Your majesty…" begins Franz Graf Von Wimpffen (3).

"No. You know my errors, as does every man in this fortress. Could I flee to Vienna? Yes. But how many men could be loaded on the flotilla and evacuated before the rearguard panicked? Ten thousand? How long would you, or anyone, manage to keep the men left behind? You would be forced to surrender the fortress and 80,000 men without either inflicting casualties or buying time for the Prussians to mobilize. Nor can we hold this fortress for more than a week bracketed by their artillery. But if we can break out, we may yet hold the Adige, or at least the Alps, until the French are forced to withdraw their forces to the Rhine."

Wimpffen nods heavily. "Well, I am at least well suited for the naval portion of the breakout (4). Or at least I can think of no one more suited for this task. This means Jellacic will command the landwards side of the breakout… under you of course. Kintzel has volunteered to lead the rear guard"

Franz Josef nods. "I will not repeat my errors. Jellacic has my full confidence (5)"

August 13th 03:00 French field headquarters, Confine (6)

Marsahl Regnaud was shaken awake by his aide. "Marshal! The Austrians are carrying out a major Sortie! They have landed marines at the rear of our lines!"

Regnaud yawned. "well son, I was expecting something like this. Actualy I was hoping for it and inviting it. That is why I positioned our reserves as I did and made preparatory orders for precisely this eventuality. Send the reserves orders to march on Ronchi to cut off the marine forces. After the marines are dispatched we'll push the sortie back into the fortress and I won't be surprised to receive a request for terms come the next day".

"No, forgive me marshal but the sortie is not to the east- it's to the West! The marine forces have landed at San Berneddeto and are mauling the Papal brigade!"

Regnaud froze, pantaloons halfway up his thighs. The West bank of the Mincio, unlike the East, was held almost solely by the Italian forces (7). While they had a near parity of numbers with the Austrians this was only because of the presence of indifferent Tuscan, Papal and neapalotonian troops and Lombard volunteer militia.

But why would Franz Josef attempt to breakout to the West? It made no sense- unless…

"Order Ist corps to hold the confine line against a possible sortie from Verona. IInd corps is to advance acroos the Minisco in support of the Italians. Have the Minisco flotilla begin ferrying troops across in case the Austrians try to flood out the bridge. All other corps to immediately advance to storm the Eastern Pischiera trenchlines. This isn't a sortie- it's a breakout. The Austrians are abandoning Ventia. They are aiming for a withdrawal to Trento"

The Aide quickly jotted down Regnaud's instructions and paused in his rush out of the tent only when Regnaud shouted- "and get a message to Garibaldi!"

Topography, Transportation and the advantages and disadvantages of the defender, Colonel Philippe Petain 1890 :

The Austrian breakout was a brilliant example of how a defender may use pre-prepared lines of communication and transport to effect a reversal of fortunes against a superior aggressor. It was also however an apt demonstration of the critical importance of the moral as well as the physical in mobilizing large numbers of men and the all important consideration of the friction of battle which tends to render overly complex plans impractical, however they appear on paper.

The initial breakout was accomplished with surprising ease. The Austrians had used the sluices in the upper lake and a raid by their flotilla to temporarily knock out the bridges over the upper Minisco, preventing the French from rushing reinforcements to support the Italian forces on the west bank of the minisco. They had successfully achieved tactical surprise by landing 10,000 troops at St Bernedeto, routing the ill disciplined Papal and Tuscan troops and forcing the better trained Piedmontese to withdraw to the south. The land based sortie, achieving local superiority against the outflanked Italian forces was able to break out of the fortress, leaving a rearguard of 20,000 walking wounded and volunteers who succeeded in holding the island core of the fortress for an additional week before surrendering.

The "long march" as it would come to be called saw the Austrian forces circle about the lake in a clockwise manner in an attempt to reach riva del garda and trento, still held at that time by the Austrian forces. Initially they were resupplied by means of the lake gardo flotilla. Indeed, this flotilla figured prominently in the plans for the breakout and it is unlikely that it could have been conceived, let alone carried out absent Austrian naval supremacy and considerable naval assets in lake Garda.

Even while this supremacy was maintained the long march was a touch and go. The Austrian rear was continually harassed by regular Italian forces, their flanks by cavalry and irregular Lombard militia and their ranks plagued by desertion. Wounded and fatigued troops were abandoned, sometimes serving as a rear guard serving to delay pursuit but more often surrendering after perfunctionary resistance. The real danger however came not from the flanks or rear but from the front. After reaching Salo the Austrian path forward was narrowed down to a single precipitous road perched between the foothills of the Alps and lake Garda.

A single French brigade, dug along that path could have held the Austrian retreat up beyond any hope of escape. The positioning of French and Italian forces however left no significant forces in the Alpine foothills to the west of Lake Garda. None, that is, except for Garibaldi's hunters of the Alps.

Garibaldi's troops were engaged at the time of the Austrian outbreak from Pischiera in intensive skirmishing with the Austrians entrenched in Riva del Garda. He was able with only 2,000 men to force the Austrians to deploy over 10,000 troops to keep the Alpine supply routes open. As Garibaldi was unaware and unconcerned with the Prussian-British ultimatum regarding the inviobility of the borders of the German confederation (8) Trento as well of Riva del Garda had to be garrisoned against his deprivations. The sudden discovery that his 2,000 men were the only force standing between the 75,000 Austrians streaming to the North and the garrison of Riva del Garda might have struck another commander with horror. To Garibaldi, of course, this was only another chance to gain immortality in service of the Patria.

Garibaldi calmly detached the first battalion of his brigade to hold off any Austrian relief from Trento while his other two battalions began a furious running defense of the lakeside road from Salo to Tremosine designed to slow the Austrian retreat to a crawl. Avoiding pitched battles they were nonetheless able to set up a series of improvised roadblocks which the Austrians were forced to successively outflank, or occasionally storm, in order to advance. The Austrians, needless to say, used exactly the same tactic to delay Franco-Italian pursuit and to rather greater effect given the narrower discrepancy in numbers. At the same time the garrison of Riva dela garda and Trento were pushing southward against the first Battalion eventualy forcing the two halves of Garibaldi's force together at Tignale.

Had Austria maintained control of Lake Garda it appears clear that Franz Josef's desperate gambit would have paid off. As it was, however, the Austrian rearguard left in pischiera was unable to hold the fort for more than a week or disable the waterways linking Lake Garda to the river Mincio for more than three days. Desperate efforts were required to take the fort and restore the waterways. Even more desperate efforts were required for marshal Regnaud to receive the inteservice cooperation he demanded and have the French Adriatic taskforce send every gunboat and light freighter it could muster up the Mincio. By the dawn of August 27th however the French possessed a fleet in lake Garda with a massive advantage in both displacement and firepower over the Austrian flotilla.

This development was unknown to either Franz Josef or Garibaldi. By the dusk of Ausgust 27th Franz Josef was reduced to 60,000 effective troops stretched across a narrow enclave from Gargrano to Tignale. Garibaldi on the other hand commanded less than 300 remaining effectives and twice that number of walking wounded holed up in the rubble of the once thriving lakeside village of Tignale. History, it is said, is decided by great movements of people, ideas and economic developments. But it is no exaggeration to say that the future of Italy, and all of Europe was determined in that stormy night by the clashing wills of those two men.

August 27th, 18:00 Tignale, Lombardia.

In a world never to be Franz Josef died at the age of 86. He died at his desk after a lifetime in which he sacrificed every inch of his soul to an unending battle against the forces undermining his empire. Never, after Solefino, would he meet them in open battle. Instead he battled them in compromises with nationalist politicians he despised, in a series of manipulations setting class against class, nation against nation, all to preserve the habsburg monarchy as the indispensable point of equilibrium within opposing and competing forces.

It is the lull following the ninth (or is it the tenth?) assault on Garibaldi's final position. Franz Josef stands as the wounded are carried off the battlefield, their bearers struggeling not to slip on the blood slick ground. Few halt to view their emperor. He has become a familiar sight over the past week, redeeming, if only partially, the reputation he had lost at Solefino. At his side stands general Jellacic, cursing under his breath in his native Croatian. Garribaldi has chosen his final position well. There are no flanks to turn, no tricks to employ. Only grinding, frontal assaults against a well dug enemy who is shielded by the curves and turns of the pass from artillery fire.

Given the disparity of numbers they still should have taken the village and opened the way to Trento. But the men are ill, tired and ground down. And they have made too many "successful" assaults where they had paid a massive butcher bill for few enemy casualties and several hundred yards of mountain passes. The head of the soldiers knows this battle is different, that a breakthrough here means the road to Trento is open. But their heart, their body, their soul, does not.

By the time he died he was, if not adored as a person, at least cherished as a institution by the 40 million citizens of the tumultuous empire. Few did not weep at his funeral. Few believed that the construct he had spent a lifetime upholding would endure. It did not. Few held hope for a better future to materialize out of the ashes of empire. It did not. But what in the end did his lonely struggle accomplish? Did it perhaps soften the agonies of Austrian dissolution, or did it only prolong and intensify them?

Have you received a response from Garibaldi? " inquires Jellacic. "I did." Sighs the emperor. "and?" Franz Josef crumples the piece of paper in his hand "I'm afraid he refuses our offer of surrender. Says he does not has the fascilities to care for our wounded". Jellacic lets out a rough chuckle. "Well, one cannot but appreciate an opponent who keeps his wit about him under these conditions. Shall we push on and try to finish him tonight or will we give our men a chance to rest until morning?".

Franz Josef is gazing over Jellacic's shoulder towards the lake, his face rapt with horror. "I think" he says as Jellacic turns to regard the Puff of smoke let out by the French steamer approaching the lakeshore, "that we no longer have a choice".

If that old, world-weary soul from another world could gaze upon his younger otherself on that glorious summer day in Tignale would he envy him? Or would he dismiss glory as ephermal and legend as vanity?

Franz Josef addresses his men. He compliments their courage. He speaks of duty and honor. He reviews the proud history of the Austrian army and how it always overcame adversity. He speaks of warm beds and safe fortifications at Trento. He stays away from the subject of Prussian mobilization- best not to alarm the non German troops. But he does reassure them that they just have to hold on and that there is hope. He tells them that there will be no retreat this time only a continuous assault until Garibaldi and his men are destroyed. And then he tells them he will lead the assault.

Perhaps a quarter of the men Franz Jozef leads in that final assault are German. Perhaps another quarter are from "loyal" nationalities, Croats (whose homeland is now entering into the "quiet mutiny"), Slovenes (increasingly sympathetic to the Croats), Czechs (who will soon seek autonomy within the empire) and Jews. But over half are from disloyal or secessionist provinces. It is perhaps surprising that they follow him as they do. But he must have done something in the past week to earn their respect and trust.

And then, for the last time in the history of Europe, a crowned European monarch leads his men in a charge.

August 27th, 20:00 Tignale, Lombardia.

The moon is not yet up but Franz Joseph has no trouble seeing in the darkness.

For the lake is on fire.

The proud imperial Flotilla of lake Garda is burning, destroyed by French gunboats. Franz Josef has no doubt that Von Wimpffen has gone down with his "flagship". He knows that Jellacic is dead, slain by the a shell fired from those gunboats, for fragments from that same shell had sliced across his left arm and cheek. What Franz Josef doesn't know is where the nearest officer of rank is.

But Franz Josef does know those same gunboats will soon pummel his clumped up army all along the long road to Gargnano. Unless he breaks through before day break. Unless he can gather his troops to finish the Italians off. There is only one row of houses left between him and the docks. Less than two kilometers to the northern edge of the village and the northern task force from Trento. He looks around at the confused mass of his soldiers and stands raising his bloodied saber above his hair and exhorting them in a broken combination of German, Polish, Czech, Magyar and Croat a growing clump of men solidifies around his as he charges towards that last row of buildings.

Halfway there ordered ranks of bayonet wielding men emerge from between the houses. Franz Josef has only a moment of despair to comprehend the meaning of their chant before an Italian sniper's bullet strikes him in the chest.

As darkness swallows him the last words he hears are "Vive La France! Vive La France!"

August 29th 09:00, ruins of Tignale, Lombardia

Brigadier Szabo (9) wearily presents his sword to his French counterpart François Aimé Melline and after a brief hesitation acknowledges the bandaged, supine figure of Giuseppe Garibaldi (10). Francoise waits until formalities are concluded before approaching Szabo. "You nearly had us a few times, you know. Even after we landed I was sure that we would be overwhelmed before reinforcements would arrive". Szabo nods wearily. "The men were mad with grief and rage after the emperor died. But rage burns a man out unless it is released. Every time we managed to organize an assault your damned gunboats rained fire on our line of approach. It did not take long to realize the men were dying to no avail."


François nods wearily and tries not to think about how few men he has left holding the perimeter to the north, where the Austrian relief detachment from Trento had overrun Garibaldi's men immediately following his division's landing.
Szabo coughs. "have you yet… found the body?"

"Not as yet. The corpses at the position where he is believed to have fallen are rather thick on the ground. I may assure you that he will treated with all respect. Such a monarch is not to be seen in this day and age".

"No" agrees Szabo sadly. "Nor the like be seen again".

"Well", muses Francoise, "Historians will no doubt argue each point of the battle until it can all be summarized in a neat tactical manual which bears no connection to the reality of the battlefield. Our duty now is to attend to the wounded and the ill. And I fear our provisions for both are very meager indeed…"

August 29th Vienna 16:00
Prince Maximillian stares at the letter, and the accompanying telegram for a long time before looking at his chief minister (11).

"But this means… I am to be emperor?"

"So it appears"

"Emperor… of Austria?"

"Such as it is, yes. I am afraid that is the only available crown suitable to your talents. Unfortunately it is an extremely troubled crown. Unless we receive help from the Prussia and the confederation immediately then I fear we must make such concessions as are necessary to preserve it's existence even if no longer as a great power"

Before Von Rechberg can digress further his flustered secretary appears, holding a pile of Telegrams. Rechberg raises an eybrow as he notes the address of origin of the telegrams. Bavaria, Wurtenberg, Baden, Dresden, but none, curiously, from Prussia, Frankfort or any of the North German states. His jaw drops as he examines the content of the Bavarian telegram. Wordlessly he hands it to his future Sovereign. Maximillian gapes at him after reading the telegram.

"What are we to do now?"

August 29th 18:00, French headquarters in Italy, Pischiera

Marshal Regnaud reviews with satisfaction the dispatch from Tignale before sliding it over to King Victor Emmanuel. "I must admit that I was worried for a time!" he exclaims. "Still, aside from the unfortunate loss of most of Garibaldi's men we have taken less casualties then we would have storming this fortress. Lord knows the walking wounded they left here were able to inflict enough damage on us as it was!".

"We must pray for Garibaldi's swift recovery" agrees Victor Emmanuel. "Still, it may perhaps be best if we consider how we may go about completing our task in liberating Italy before he recovers… certain provisions of the treaty are likely to raise unnecessary excitement and it is best if they are disposed of while he is incapacitated".

"Of course, of course", agrees Regnaud clumsily, wishing again that Napleon had not adruptly withdrawn after Solefino. He knows his strengths and his limits and politics are definitely among the latter. Then again, he suspects that so too it is for Louis Napoleon and the art of war. Better perhaps a cautious monarch, horrified at the chaff of war who prefers to leave military matters to the professionals than one who is eager to win glory as the kings of old on the field… and get his men killed in the process.

"Speak of the devil" he murmurs as his aide approaches with a telegram envelope bearing the imperial sigil. As he peruses the contents of the telegram and the orders contained therein his jaw drops. He meets the questioning gaze of victor Emmanuel with a look of guilt. How the blazes is he to inform him of his new orders?


(1) The Adige river is wide enough for French ships of the line to sail, or at least be towed all the way up to Verona. Some has done just that and have unloaded their heavy guns to be laboriously towed to the siege lines surrounding Pischiera. OTL Napoleon III had a scheme similar to this which never came into fruition.

(2) Since Pischiera controls the entrance to lake Gardo the lake remains open to Asutrian shipping carrying messages and some supplies to the besieged fortress. But the French Artillery is now sufficiently heavy to range all the way to the docks.

(3) OTL Solefino didn't end that badly for the Austrians. It was a tactical stalemate which, together with the Prussian mobilization meant Napoleon had to stop while he was ahead. Accordingly while Franz Josef did not come out of the battle shining with glory nor was his reputation and self esteem shattered the way it was TTL. With Ferenc Gyulani recalled to Vienna and the Second Austrian army shattered I'm assuming Franz Graf Von Wimpffen is made effective commander.

(4) Wimpffen was the chief admiral of the Austrian navy until 1854. However, this job was mostly administrative.

(5) So no amatuers yanking the chain as was the case at solefino. This is a standup fight between professionals.

(6) Like I said look at google maps. Since this battle never happened OTL I have to work by logic rather than historical analogy. Regnaud has set up his headquarters on the West bank of the Minisco on the line of communications between Verona and Pischiera.
(7) Regnaud has positioned the higher quality and more numerous French forces east of the Mincio since that is the logical site of either a breakout from Pischiera or a relief attempt from Verona. West of the Micio is the wrong way for the Austrians to go if they want to connect with the Verona garrison and Vienna.
(8) No, I didn't talk about that yet. We'll get to that ultimatum a few posts from now.
(9) Senior surviving officer of the Austrian army in Italy. After FJ did his thing everyone sort of had to lead from the front in attempts to break up the French position. You use up officers very quickly that way.
(10) The dice were in his favor. He's not going to be leading any invasion of sicily for a while though. He's also going to lose a leg and pass away quietly in a few years from complications.
(11) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Count_Johann_Bernhard_von_Rechberg_und_Rothenlöwen
 
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yboxman

Damn that sounds like a close run thing. Nearly worked by just about everything went just well enough for the French and their allies.:( Wonder what Max can save from the mess?

Steve
 
The "long march" as it would come to be called saw the Austrian forces circle about the lake in a counterclockwise manner in an attempt to reach riva del garda and trento, still held at that time by the Austrian forces.
I believe you mean "clockwise" here.
 

yboxman

Banned
different Jelacic

A minor nitpick- Jelačić died OTL in May 1859.;)

Different Jelacic.

The order of Battle in Solefino show A Jelacic leading the 1st division of the 2nd Austrian Corps http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solferino_order_of_battle. The rather more famous Jelacic who I assume you are referring to was the Ban of Croatia and Croatian national hero http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josip_Jelacic who did not lead armies after the 1848 revolutions and is way too old and ill to be involved with the Italian campaign.

(small spoiler: he's going to die around the same time as he did OTL but the proximity of his death to TTLs battle of Solefino is going to be the trigger for the "Silent mutiny")

One annoying thing about Austro-Hungarian history is that the names of Croat, Hungarian and Austrian nobility tend to be very repetitive (kind of like so many Koreans being called Kim or Park or both). When referring to different people with the same name or surname I'll try to find some way of distinguishing them clearly.
 
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yboxman

Banned
yboxman

Damn that sounds like a close run thing. Nearly worked by just about everything went just well enough for the French and their allies.:( Wonder what Max can save from the mess?

Steve

Thanks. I think I like how deciding on the outcome by semi-chance worked out. Think I overdid the great wall of text though. Will try to fit future posts into bite sized pieces

What I did, and I'll probably keep doing, is assign somewhat arbitrary probabilities on the decision tree of the decision makers. In FJs case, following the successful French encircelment of Pischiera (I gave him even chances to withdraw to Verona before the noose was tightened. He lost) his choices are basically to surrender and ask for terms, escape and leave his army to collapse, hole up and try to hold out until Prussia intervenes, or attempt a breakout.

Once I started reading about Napoleon's plan to tow naval artillery up the Miniscio I decided that holding out wasn't relay much of a viable military option so I assigned it a low probability (one out of six. IF FJ would have done that I would have given Pischiera 2-4 weeks to hold out. If they would have held out for four then the outcome would be significantly different, and better for Austria than what probably ends up happening).

Surrendering at this stage and asking for terms was also low probability. FJ simply does not believe that the other European powers would allow him to lose more than what he would lose in a worse case scenario. Or that surrendering will be better for his prestige at court than defeat. So I gave this a one in six as well.

Flight was tricky. Most of the psychological profiles made of FJ refer to his later life after he was burned by 1859, 1866 and the long years of decline. That affects a man's character and outlook. FJ in 1859 however is basicaly a fairly highstrung and confident young man. He's humiliated by Solefino and wants to redeem himself. WHile concerned that absence from the capital may result in a coup unseating him his sense of responsibility to his men compels him to stay with his troops. So I gave this a 1 in 6 as well.

That leaves the breakout. I came to the conclusion that strategicaly, the best thing for an Austria which has suffered as large a disaster as FJ had would be to turtle up in "German" core (that is the land within the German confederation(OTL Austria, Czech republic, Slovenia, Trento and trieste), not the ethnicaly german lands) of Austria, rely on the protection of Prussia/the confederation and then rely on the threat of Prussian intervention, British pressure and divisions among allies to regain control over as much of the extra-German territory in the East, and possibly northeastern Venetia as they can, possibly by a decisive move against the Russians who are at the end of their Logisitic rope. To do that however, the army needs to be extracted from Italy, and the Alps adopted as a line of defence which Piedmont would be uninterested to assault and which would pull French forces far the Prussian buildup on the Rhine.

a Western Breakout, based of the Flotilla on Lake Garda, seemed to offer the best chance for saving all of the army, though an incremental withdrawal of forces by flotilla across the lake towards Riva-del garda was another option I considered. It's downside was that the moment it began Regnaud would launch an all out assault on Pischiera (and Possibly move other forces to attack Riva-del garda), the remaining troops would become increasingly demoralized, and Pischiera would probably fall before most of the troops would be evacuated (I decided on a 20-70% successful evacuation).

Given troop dispositions I decided a land based breakout to the West offered an even chance for successful extraction of 80%-90% of the army and decided FJ, for a complex mixture of strategic and emotional reasons would lean towards this option (4 in 6 probability). All or nothing.

He either fears his fate too much,
Or his deserts are small,
That dares not put it to the touch
To gain or lose it all.

If he would have made it out Austria would do rather better, FJ would build up some political credit in Vienna and with his generals and the Prussian Grab for power would be quite different.

As it is... well, let's see the next post, shall we? It focuses on Bismark's attempt to broker an understanding with prince Gorchakov in St petersburg (He's in "promotional exile" as ambassador there) while influencing policy in Berlin by telegram.

Will consider any thoughts by the public and then will begin drip feeding the attempts of negotiations so I can gauge responses and assign probabilities.
 

abc123

Banned
Different Jelacic.

The order of Battle in Solefino show A Jelacic leading the 1st division of the 2nd Austrian Corps http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solferino_order_of_battle. The rather more famous Jelacic who I assume you are referring to was the Ban of Croatia and Croatian national hero http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josip_Jelacic who did not lead armies after the 1848 revolutions and is way too old and ill to be involved with the Italian campaign.

(small spoiler: he's going to die around the same time as he did OTL but the proximity of his death to TTLs battle of Solefino is going to be the trigger for the "Silent mutiny")

One annoying thing about Austro-Hungarian history is that the names of Croat, Hungarian and Austrian nobility tend to be very repetitive (kind of like so many Koreans being called Kim or Park or both). When referring to different people with the same name or surname I'll try to find some way of distinguishing them clearly.


Ah yes, you mean his younger brother, Vice-Marchall Juraj Đuro Jelačić...

http://www.geni.com/people/Juraj-Đuro-Franjo-Jelačić/6000000010995890098

http://hr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Đuro_Jelačić
 

yboxman

Banned

I guess so- didn't realize they were so closely related. Though he became vice Marshal later I think (OTL that is. TTL his career and life are cut short by French naval artillery). Did they have any other brothers?

I take it you are from Croatia or somewhere in used to be Yugoslavia- do you have any good sources on this guy? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josip_Šokčević.

Based on his protest and resignation after the Austro-Hungarian compromise I take it he has some national identity (unlike many Magyar, Croat, and Czech officers serving the Habsburgs) and might break from the habsburgs under certain circumstances. Do you know of any any significant anti-habsburg, non establishment Croat nationalists at the time?
 
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