Prussia and the rest of the German States could be the deciding factor against France and Italy. Earlier German unification perhaps?
A heartbeat away from greatness: a timeline of missed opportunities
- Thread starter yboxman
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Prussia and the rest of the German States could be the deciding factor against France and Italy. Earlier German unification perhaps?
Tongera
Possibly but Austria's already badly trashed and Prussia isn't the military titan it was a decade or so later OTL. Hence a war with both France and Russia, even with the support of Britain and the smaller German states could be very nasty for it. Apart from the fact there are a few hints of potential problems in N Amercia.
Steve
yboxman
Banned
Bismarkian ploys
No, that would be simple and straightforward. We ARE talking about Bismark after all. His aim is to:
a. Use the threat of intervention to win prestige with German nationalists
b. limit Russo-French gains and so keep Rump Austria as a future ally/vassal
c. most of all to use the process of mobilization and the legitimacy granted to Prussian leadership by the Frankfort Diet to consolidate the Northern German states and their military-economic resources under effective Prussian control
d. Get Bavaria invested in this project by bribing it with control of SOuth germany so that it is an ally against France rather than a rival within Germany.
e. Ride the wave of German nationalism to dominance over South Germany and Austria. Bismark dominates Prussia, Prussia Dominates North Germany, North Germany dominates GrossDeutchland, GrossDeutchland dominates Europe. That's the plan... but it may be more or less succesful than it was OTL.
f. Split Russia away from France
A few things to bear in mind:
a. Bismark rocks but he's not yet the master diplomat and politician he would become. OTL His years in St petersburg were extremely formative for his inner development, established his network of international contacts and demonstrated to king William and Von Roon how indespensible he was for managing the Prussian domestic scene. When he was recalled in 1861 he recieved full control over Prussia's foreign policy and domestic politics. He does'nt have that here. Influence, yes. Control, no.
b. The military situation is tricky (I"ll explore it at length in a later post). Suffice it to say that the inclination of Both Prussia and France is to avoid an immediate war because the first has half it's army on the wrong side of the Alps and the Second has not completed mobilization, consolidated military control over the North German states or initiated the planned military reform and expansion. Austria is totally trashed after the battle of Lake Garda. It has lost over two thirds of it's regular forces to war and mutiny. Maximillian realizes he could lose Bohemia and Croatia and even SLovenia if the war does not end quickly. He also realizes that the price of a Prussian rescue at this point may be higher than the demands of RUssia and France. Russia is in a shambolic mess and wants to cash in it's winnings and stop while it's ahead.
c. However.... precisely since the situation is fluid one or the other side may try to seize the advantage before the other completes mobilization/repositions their forces/crushes Austria/ consolidates control in Germany. A congress to sit down and discuss how to achieve a cessation of hostilities and rebalance the balane of power in Europe may be how everyone wants this to end, but the military situation may be evolving too quickly for that.
d. Right now Prussia/Bavaria/German confederation have NOT declared war on France/Russia. What they have done is order mobilization, focused on the RHine frontier and threatened war if Russia or France crosses the border of the German confederation (Which includes Austria, Slovenia, Czech republic, Tyrol and Trieste).
e. What this means in military terms however is ambiguous. Theoreticaly it means Austria can retreat to the Alps in the West and focus all their forces for a counter attack against Russia in Hungary (though by now that is really pushing the edges of their military capabilities). Or it means they can retreat to the German core of their lands and refuse to make either war or peace until the Prussian mobilization is complete. Or launch local raids from across the German confederation border and withdraw before the Russian/French can counterattack.
Until the Austrian defeat in Italy and Hungary these options were theoretical since RUssia and France could simply fight the hapsburgs outside the bounds of the Prussian line in the sand. But now it's crunch time. The longer the Russo-French alliance waits at the border of the German confederation the worse their military situation grows.
f. Prussia does NOT want a two front war. Bismark aims to split Russia off from France by offering the Russians gains in the Balkans and possibly Hungary (he doesn't believe this will actually increase their strengh and he does believe this will embroil them with the Brits). But previous Russo-French understandings mandate Russia to support France and vice-verca in case Prussia attacks either in the course of the war with Austria and for a year afterwards. Bismark is aware of this. Ideally he would like to provoke a French attack in a way that ensures russian neutrality and a Bavarian alliance as he did OTL. But TTL he's playing with a worse deck of cards.
g. Piedmont has it's own agenda. It wants, if not all of Italy at least Tuscany and the Papal legations and eventually Rome. It already got most of what it wants from Austria. And the power standing in it's way to the south is France, not Austria.
h. the Big unknown is Britain. They are on the brink of joining the Prussian ultimatum by threatening a blockade is RUsso-French forces cross the German confederation border. And bear in mind that in 1859 the British army actually is a relevant factor from the get go. It's smaller than continental armies but not ridiculously so (Britain placed between a half to a third of the French order of battle during the Crimean war. It can land 100,000 men on the continent fairly quickly and gradualy reinforce them with another 100,000 within a few months. If they are not engaged in Canada that is)
i. At the risk of repeating myself- If the Russo french alliance stops at the German confederation border and engage in negotiations while Prussian mobilization and consolidation continue then their position will continualy detiriorate.
No, that would be simple and straightforward. We ARE talking about Bismark after all. His aim is to:
a. Use the threat of intervention to win prestige with German nationalists
b. limit Russo-French gains and so keep Rump Austria as a future ally/vassal
c. most of all to use the process of mobilization and the legitimacy granted to Prussian leadership by the Frankfort Diet to consolidate the Northern German states and their military-economic resources under effective Prussian control
d. Get Bavaria invested in this project by bribing it with control of SOuth germany so that it is an ally against France rather than a rival within Germany.
e. Ride the wave of German nationalism to dominance over South Germany and Austria. Bismark dominates Prussia, Prussia Dominates North Germany, North Germany dominates GrossDeutchland, GrossDeutchland dominates Europe. That's the plan... but it may be more or less succesful than it was OTL.
f. Split Russia away from France
A few things to bear in mind:
a. Bismark rocks but he's not yet the master diplomat and politician he would become. OTL His years in St petersburg were extremely formative for his inner development, established his network of international contacts and demonstrated to king William and Von Roon how indespensible he was for managing the Prussian domestic scene. When he was recalled in 1861 he recieved full control over Prussia's foreign policy and domestic politics. He does'nt have that here. Influence, yes. Control, no.
b. The military situation is tricky (I"ll explore it at length in a later post). Suffice it to say that the inclination of Both Prussia and France is to avoid an immediate war because the first has half it's army on the wrong side of the Alps and the Second has not completed mobilization, consolidated military control over the North German states or initiated the planned military reform and expansion. Austria is totally trashed after the battle of Lake Garda. It has lost over two thirds of it's regular forces to war and mutiny. Maximillian realizes he could lose Bohemia and Croatia and even SLovenia if the war does not end quickly. He also realizes that the price of a Prussian rescue at this point may be higher than the demands of RUssia and France. Russia is in a shambolic mess and wants to cash in it's winnings and stop while it's ahead.
c. However.... precisely since the situation is fluid one or the other side may try to seize the advantage before the other completes mobilization/repositions their forces/crushes Austria/ consolidates control in Germany. A congress to sit down and discuss how to achieve a cessation of hostilities and rebalance the balane of power in Europe may be how everyone wants this to end, but the military situation may be evolving too quickly for that.
d. Right now Prussia/Bavaria/German confederation have NOT declared war on France/Russia. What they have done is order mobilization, focused on the RHine frontier and threatened war if Russia or France crosses the border of the German confederation (Which includes Austria, Slovenia, Czech republic, Tyrol and Trieste).
e. What this means in military terms however is ambiguous. Theoreticaly it means Austria can retreat to the Alps in the West and focus all their forces for a counter attack against Russia in Hungary (though by now that is really pushing the edges of their military capabilities). Or it means they can retreat to the German core of their lands and refuse to make either war or peace until the Prussian mobilization is complete. Or launch local raids from across the German confederation border and withdraw before the Russian/French can counterattack.
Until the Austrian defeat in Italy and Hungary these options were theoretical since RUssia and France could simply fight the hapsburgs outside the bounds of the Prussian line in the sand. But now it's crunch time. The longer the Russo-French alliance waits at the border of the German confederation the worse their military situation grows.
f. Prussia does NOT want a two front war. Bismark aims to split Russia off from France by offering the Russians gains in the Balkans and possibly Hungary (he doesn't believe this will actually increase their strengh and he does believe this will embroil them with the Brits). But previous Russo-French understandings mandate Russia to support France and vice-verca in case Prussia attacks either in the course of the war with Austria and for a year afterwards. Bismark is aware of this. Ideally he would like to provoke a French attack in a way that ensures russian neutrality and a Bavarian alliance as he did OTL. But TTL he's playing with a worse deck of cards.
g. Piedmont has it's own agenda. It wants, if not all of Italy at least Tuscany and the Papal legations and eventually Rome. It already got most of what it wants from Austria. And the power standing in it's way to the south is France, not Austria.
h. the Big unknown is Britain. They are on the brink of joining the Prussian ultimatum by threatening a blockade is RUsso-French forces cross the German confederation border. And bear in mind that in 1859 the British army actually is a relevant factor from the get go. It's smaller than continental armies but not ridiculously so (Britain placed between a half to a third of the French order of battle during the Crimean war. It can land 100,000 men on the continent fairly quickly and gradualy reinforce them with another 100,000 within a few months. If they are not engaged in Canada that is)
i. At the risk of repeating myself- If the Russo french alliance stops at the German confederation border and engage in negotiations while Prussian mobilization and consolidation continue then their position will continualy detiriorate.
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yboxman
Banned
quite right. the balance of power is immeasurably different than it was 1870 and has little correlation to WWI (which is how most people tend to assume european conflicts would look).
in 1870 Germany was radically different from other European powers in military organization and doctrine. in 1859 the difference is there but less pronounced and advantageous. In WWI everyone was operating out of the same (prussian written) book. However, bear in mind that the RUssian-French armies are badly positioned for a war with Prussia.
Another issue to consider is that demography, industrialization and other criteria of state strength assume greater importance in longer conflicts. In short wars it is the armies in the field at the beginning of the fight which count- and these are the terms most of the European statesmen are thinking in when they plot their moves (though they understand Britain is qualitatevly diferent).
I'll discuss the balance of power in depth a post or so from now.
yboxman
Banned
#16: The night of the long bayonets
Play this - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2gDdaF0D6w and this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyEW_hvzn1w
while reading
August 26th 18:00, Silesia, Military Train en-route from Breslau to Cologne via Dresden(1), 2nd division command car (2).
Prince Fredrick Charles (3) surveys the officers of the 2nd division of the Xth corps gathered before him.
"We shall reach Dresden in three hours time." He states. The well disciplined officers show no hint of confusion but he senses it nonetheless. After all, while the train will indeed pass in Dresden no stop is planned. The ferrying of the regular army units from the Eastern marches of Prussia (4) to the Rhinelands is taxing the still rudimentary railway system of Prussia to it's very limits and trains are running at capacity to complete the
The passage through Dresden should be a matter of no concern. Nor, for that matter, should the transportation of the division require his own exalted presence. Some matters however could not be left to a politically inexperienced divisional commander (5).
He takes a moment to lock eyes with each of his subordinates before continuing "We have new orders"
August 26th 19:00, Potsdam, Prussian army General Headquaters
The man in the heart of the steel grey web of Telegraph lines and railways connections does not truly understand the physical principles by which those newfangled devices work. He was born too late to take them for granted and lacks the education or inclination to exult in the rapid scientific progress of mankind.
However, while others of his class and age are reluctant to make full use of devices which they subconsciously view as a threat to their position he has no such inhibitions. To him, the railways and Telegraph lines are abstractions enabling him to control the armies of Prussia from afar to a degree that would turn Fredrick the Great green with Envy.
Moltke's task, which is not simply to defeat his enemies but to overwhelm them and gain control of their lands, men and wealth before they even realize that a conflict exists would be impossible without those devices. He raises his hand as he senses another strand of his web tremble.
August 27th 19:30, Westephilian-Nassau border
Major Von Hippel grimly examines the Nassau border guards corpses. His attempt at overwhelming the border post did not go as smoothly as planned. But he does not think they managed to get off a warning. And if they did… he scribbles an update on his note pad and jams it into the hands of the awaiting runner. "Tell Von Rugen to advance as quickly as possible- I am not sure how long we have before a general alarm is sounded!"
August 26th 20:00, Frankfort, Personal quarters of Otto Von Bismark
Bismark is kneeling before the fireplace his hand clutching that of his wife. Both are praying to the almighty (6). Silently, without undue fanfare. Bismark knows that the events he has set in motion are now out of his hands and in the hands of professional soldiers. As he has no recourse to commune with either Moltke or Von Roon until operations are complete he may as well take comfort in the presence of the divine.
August 27th 21:00, Kingdom of Saxony, Dresden
The conducter urgently blares his whistle as the Westward heading train comes to a stop. At the pier. He is still angrily waving his flags when the doorways burst open and a spike helmeted Prussian corporal clubs him to the ground with the butt of his rifle.
A disgruntled prince Fredrick Charles pays the bloodied and battered corpse no heed as he descends to set up his command post at the railway's telegraph station.
August 27th 21:30, Potsdam, Prussian army General Headquarters
Moltke swiftly examines the table presented to him by the adjundant. Ten of the twelve railway shock forces and eight of the nine field armies are proceeding as expected with little or no resistance. He nods to the adjundant. "Send code six to Hanover, Dresden, and Nassau".
August 27th 22:30, Kingdom of Hanover, City of Hanover
King George the Vth receives the Prussian ambassador into his personal quarters an outraged expression on his face. "What is the meaning of this outrage!" he demands of the heavily breathing man, who excudes an unpleasent odor of stale seat, fear and exaltation.
"I fear" intones the Prussian ambassador (7) "that your realm's contribution to the defense of Germany has been less generous than it might have been. Grave concerns have been raised that elements in your court may have been influenced by French gold to lead Hanover into betrayel"
King George's face reddens with outrage. "Am I to understand", he states stiffly "that your master intends to present Hanover with a formal declaration of war? Stand sure that Hanover shall defend it's rights(8)!"
The Prussian ambassador, faced with the scorn of his better, is sweating. But he carries on " No declaration of war is required in regards to traitors to the nation. My king has sent me to inform you that the Prussian army already controls your Railway centers, border crossings, telegraph lines- and most of your capital."
"Indeed", the ambassador continues as he examines his gold rimmed watch. "I believe that our troops are approaching the palace as I speak". "Can you not hear their boots treading? it is the sound of the future"
King George steps back, his ears made sensitive from two and a half decades spent in darkness, trying to pick up hints of the threat curling around the heart of his realm. He hears no marching soldiers but notes the ominous sounds of incipient panic winding their way throuh the palace.
"The only question remaining is whether you shall accept Prussia's aid in purging your court and armed forces from traitorous elements and place the Army of Hanover under Prussia's exclusive command- or whether it will be necessary for the King of Prussia to assume full control of the province of Hanover".
The collected Correspondences, journals and speeches of Otto Von Bismark, Oxsford university press, 1922: Last speech of Otto Von Bismark to the Frankfort Diet.
August 29th 09:00
Gentlemen, for the past month Germany has been faced with the greatest peril to it's existence since the dark days of Jena. Germany, at this darkest hour, had required giants. And all it had, all you had provided were moral midgets. Midgets who have spent the past month debating , conniving, and attempting to advance small, petty concerns at the cost of the German nation. Fortunate it is that it is not by debates and appeals to outdated state's rights that the great questions of the day shall be decided.
The future shall be decided by Eisen und Blut! Blood and Iron!
(Note: The final sections of the speech are disputed)
The clamor in the hallowed halls of the Diet overwhelms Bismarks carefully planned speech as the guards regiment of Spike helmeted Prussian infantry marches through the doors of the Diet. The Gleam of the Bayonets of the leading soldiers are dimmed by a red fluid clinging to the blades.
Bismark allows himself a small smile. "It is time, Gentlemen". "It is time for us to vote a the new constitution for the German confederation". I believe that you have all received the appropriate instructions from your governments(9).
(1) That's the capital of Saxony.
(2) Moltke has effectively commandeered the entire train system of Prussia two weeks ago. Prussia would be the first army, OTL, to have a systemic plan for transporting troops by rail in case of mobilization by government control rather than simply bidding for places on commercial railways. While OTL the procedures would only be perfected in 1861 I've decided to let Moltke Jury rig a less efficient arrangement within the past month.
(3) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Frederick_Charles_of_Prussia
(4) the still mobilizing bulk of the Prussian reserve forces will hold the East with a core of regulars are supposed to hold the Russian border while every other regular formation of Prussia and Bavaria plus contributuions from the smaller states is being rushed to the Rhinelands/Palatinate.
(5) Who I am not going to bother to name
(6) A side of Bismark most people are unaware of is his extreme religousity and dedication to protestant fundamentalism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pietism. This is partly but not exclusively under the influence of his wife and in order to gain her affection during his courtship of her.
(7) Nope, not going to name him either- you may take this as an indication that he has no independent volition and is unlikely to appear again.
(8) technically speaking a state of war between two members of the confederation can only be declared six weeks after a declaration is presented and an effort made to Mediate the conflict in the Frankfort Diet. OTL George actually thought Prussia would extend him this courtesy in 1866. they didn't.
(9) Vote our way or be annexed.
P.S. I think this scenario is plausible. The german railway system was integrated by the Zolverein and border control was minimal. In any event the distance between the borders of each principality and their capitals were extremely small. But I'm open to Plausability checks.
Play this - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2gDdaF0D6w and this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyEW_hvzn1w
while reading
August 26th 18:00, Silesia, Military Train en-route from Breslau to Cologne via Dresden(1), 2nd division command car (2).
Prince Fredrick Charles (3) surveys the officers of the 2nd division of the Xth corps gathered before him.
"We shall reach Dresden in three hours time." He states. The well disciplined officers show no hint of confusion but he senses it nonetheless. After all, while the train will indeed pass in Dresden no stop is planned. The ferrying of the regular army units from the Eastern marches of Prussia (4) to the Rhinelands is taxing the still rudimentary railway system of Prussia to it's very limits and trains are running at capacity to complete the
The passage through Dresden should be a matter of no concern. Nor, for that matter, should the transportation of the division require his own exalted presence. Some matters however could not be left to a politically inexperienced divisional commander (5).
He takes a moment to lock eyes with each of his subordinates before continuing "We have new orders"
August 26th 19:00, Potsdam, Prussian army General Headquaters
The man in the heart of the steel grey web of Telegraph lines and railways connections does not truly understand the physical principles by which those newfangled devices work. He was born too late to take them for granted and lacks the education or inclination to exult in the rapid scientific progress of mankind.
However, while others of his class and age are reluctant to make full use of devices which they subconsciously view as a threat to their position he has no such inhibitions. To him, the railways and Telegraph lines are abstractions enabling him to control the armies of Prussia from afar to a degree that would turn Fredrick the Great green with Envy.
Moltke's task, which is not simply to defeat his enemies but to overwhelm them and gain control of their lands, men and wealth before they even realize that a conflict exists would be impossible without those devices. He raises his hand as he senses another strand of his web tremble.
August 27th 19:30, Westephilian-Nassau border
Major Von Hippel grimly examines the Nassau border guards corpses. His attempt at overwhelming the border post did not go as smoothly as planned. But he does not think they managed to get off a warning. And if they did… he scribbles an update on his note pad and jams it into the hands of the awaiting runner. "Tell Von Rugen to advance as quickly as possible- I am not sure how long we have before a general alarm is sounded!"
August 26th 20:00, Frankfort, Personal quarters of Otto Von Bismark
Bismark is kneeling before the fireplace his hand clutching that of his wife. Both are praying to the almighty (6). Silently, without undue fanfare. Bismark knows that the events he has set in motion are now out of his hands and in the hands of professional soldiers. As he has no recourse to commune with either Moltke or Von Roon until operations are complete he may as well take comfort in the presence of the divine.
August 27th 21:00, Kingdom of Saxony, Dresden
The conducter urgently blares his whistle as the Westward heading train comes to a stop. At the pier. He is still angrily waving his flags when the doorways burst open and a spike helmeted Prussian corporal clubs him to the ground with the butt of his rifle.
A disgruntled prince Fredrick Charles pays the bloodied and battered corpse no heed as he descends to set up his command post at the railway's telegraph station.
August 27th 21:30, Potsdam, Prussian army General Headquarters
Moltke swiftly examines the table presented to him by the adjundant. Ten of the twelve railway shock forces and eight of the nine field armies are proceeding as expected with little or no resistance. He nods to the adjundant. "Send code six to Hanover, Dresden, and Nassau".
August 27th 22:30, Kingdom of Hanover, City of Hanover
King George the Vth receives the Prussian ambassador into his personal quarters an outraged expression on his face. "What is the meaning of this outrage!" he demands of the heavily breathing man, who excudes an unpleasent odor of stale seat, fear and exaltation.
"I fear" intones the Prussian ambassador (7) "that your realm's contribution to the defense of Germany has been less generous than it might have been. Grave concerns have been raised that elements in your court may have been influenced by French gold to lead Hanover into betrayel"
King George's face reddens with outrage. "Am I to understand", he states stiffly "that your master intends to present Hanover with a formal declaration of war? Stand sure that Hanover shall defend it's rights(8)!"
The Prussian ambassador, faced with the scorn of his better, is sweating. But he carries on " No declaration of war is required in regards to traitors to the nation. My king has sent me to inform you that the Prussian army already controls your Railway centers, border crossings, telegraph lines- and most of your capital."
"Indeed", the ambassador continues as he examines his gold rimmed watch. "I believe that our troops are approaching the palace as I speak". "Can you not hear their boots treading? it is the sound of the future"
King George steps back, his ears made sensitive from two and a half decades spent in darkness, trying to pick up hints of the threat curling around the heart of his realm. He hears no marching soldiers but notes the ominous sounds of incipient panic winding their way throuh the palace.
"The only question remaining is whether you shall accept Prussia's aid in purging your court and armed forces from traitorous elements and place the Army of Hanover under Prussia's exclusive command- or whether it will be necessary for the King of Prussia to assume full control of the province of Hanover".
The collected Correspondences, journals and speeches of Otto Von Bismark, Oxsford university press, 1922: Last speech of Otto Von Bismark to the Frankfort Diet.
August 29th 09:00
Gentlemen, for the past month Germany has been faced with the greatest peril to it's existence since the dark days of Jena. Germany, at this darkest hour, had required giants. And all it had, all you had provided were moral midgets. Midgets who have spent the past month debating , conniving, and attempting to advance small, petty concerns at the cost of the German nation. Fortunate it is that it is not by debates and appeals to outdated state's rights that the great questions of the day shall be decided.
The future shall be decided by Eisen und Blut! Blood and Iron!
(Note: The final sections of the speech are disputed)
The clamor in the hallowed halls of the Diet overwhelms Bismarks carefully planned speech as the guards regiment of Spike helmeted Prussian infantry marches through the doors of the Diet. The Gleam of the Bayonets of the leading soldiers are dimmed by a red fluid clinging to the blades.
Bismark allows himself a small smile. "It is time, Gentlemen". "It is time for us to vote a the new constitution for the German confederation". I believe that you have all received the appropriate instructions from your governments(9).
(1) That's the capital of Saxony.
(2) Moltke has effectively commandeered the entire train system of Prussia two weeks ago. Prussia would be the first army, OTL, to have a systemic plan for transporting troops by rail in case of mobilization by government control rather than simply bidding for places on commercial railways. While OTL the procedures would only be perfected in 1861 I've decided to let Moltke Jury rig a less efficient arrangement within the past month.
(3) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Frederick_Charles_of_Prussia
(4) the still mobilizing bulk of the Prussian reserve forces will hold the East with a core of regulars are supposed to hold the Russian border while every other regular formation of Prussia and Bavaria plus contributuions from the smaller states is being rushed to the Rhinelands/Palatinate.
(5) Who I am not going to bother to name
(6) A side of Bismark most people are unaware of is his extreme religousity and dedication to protestant fundamentalism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pietism. This is partly but not exclusively under the influence of his wife and in order to gain her affection during his courtship of her.
(7) Nope, not going to name him either- you may take this as an indication that he has no independent volition and is unlikely to appear again.
(8) technically speaking a state of war between two members of the confederation can only be declared six weeks after a declaration is presented and an effort made to Mediate the conflict in the Frankfort Diet. OTL George actually thought Prussia would extend him this courtesy in 1866. they didn't.
(9) Vote our way or be annexed.
P.S. I think this scenario is plausible. The german railway system was integrated by the Zolverein and border control was minimal. In any event the distance between the borders of each principality and their capitals were extremely small. But I'm open to Plausability checks.
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yboxman
Bloody hell. I didn't think Molke and Bismarck would go that far. They might get away with this if they quietly advise France and/or Russia, possibly especially the latter, their not going to content their existing gains at Austrian expense. However its going to kick up a storm as basically a military coup against every other German states in the north. Also it might well cause concern in Britain. Not to mention if this isn't going to be permanent, which I presume it is from the dictated at gunpoint constitution, Prussia has made a hell of a lot of enemies.
One typo I think. I presume [ex?] king George is asking whether the Prussians are going to make a declaration of war against Hanover rather Prussia?
Steve
Bloody hell. I didn't think Molke and Bismarck would go that far. They might get away with this if they quietly advise France and/or Russia, possibly especially the latter, their not going to content their existing gains at Austrian expense. However its going to kick up a storm as basically a military coup against every other German states in the north. Also it might well cause concern in Britain. Not to mention if this isn't going to be permanent, which I presume it is from the dictated at gunpoint constitution, Prussia has made a hell of a lot of enemies.
One typo I think. I presume [ex?] king George is asking whether the Prussians are going to make a declaration of war against Hanover rather Prussia?
Steve
yboxman
Banned
Typo corrected. And yes, Bismarks plan is to let Russia have a free hand in Galicia and Hungary (hoping this will result in a Russian-Ottoman -British clash), let Austria know they won't back them up unless they sign a peace treaty along those lines AND then sign a mutual defense treaty against Russia, while giving Bavaria a Carte Blance With Germany south of the Main (including handing over the Prussian enclave there) in return to a mutual defense treaty against France.
And France? they are left in the Lurch with Half of their army south of the Alps. By the time it returns Prussia will complete both mobilization and integration of the North German armed forces into it's own.
Bismark may then to provoke a conflict with them- but he"ll try to get them to be the agressors.
As to whether the king of Hanover (and Hesse and Saxony and a few other minor states) have just lost their thrones... that depends on how well they cooperate. Their cooperation helps switch the alleigance of their trrops quickly on the short term but on the long term an "independent" Saxony, Hanover, etc are an expensive administrative headache and a potential weak spot in a prolonged war. However, Prussia needs their troops NOW in order to deter France and Russia and if they give their word they can keep their thrones they will lose major credibility if they violate it (much of the Frankfort diet manuevers before the "night of long bayonets" is made in order to provide a legal pretext for the takeover)
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yboxman
The basic problem here is that Prussia has shown its own word is worthless and breached the rules of the German Confederation. Hence if the assorted rulers 'agree' to Prussian control to keep their thrones the fact this has been forced at gunpoint means that neither they nor anyone else will expect them to be morally bound.
True it will be difficult to get out from under the Prussian boot but Bismarck could well find himself in the same position as Napoleon a couple of generations back. Relying on increasing military strength to keep his victims off his back, that same strength and the tactics and finances needed to maintain it making the populations increasingly resentful.
Steve
yboxman
Banned
Well, yes and no. Consider What happened OTL in 1864 and then 1866. Bismark manuvered Austria to join him in war against Denmark. A year and a half later he launched a suprise attack, in breach of the rules of the confederation, and after sadowa dethroned the rulers of Hannover, Hesse-Kessel, and annexed Frankfurt and Hamburg. All the various small rulers who supported Prussia as well as Saxony were then dragged, at gunpoint, into the North German confederation which eliminated any freedom of Action Prussia's alies had previously enjoyed.
And yet, Both the countries he annexed, those he kept as vassals, and those who temporarily escaped Prussian dominion (Bavaria, Baden, Wurtenburg) fought at Prussia's side in 1870 and meekly accepted Prussian rule afterwards even though it was quite obvious to the rulers if not the people that Bismark provoked the war. Why? Austrian Ethnic Germans, in spite of being backstabbed and suffering horrific casulties at Sadowa cheered when Bismark crushed france in 1870- and made any Austrian intervention on the French side quite difficult. Why?
Well, here is where Bismark is different from Napoleon. Bismark is relying on the power of German nationalism. OTL Germans wished to be united under a single powerful state and are willing to put up with Prussian dominance if that is the only way to get there (OTL they peferred Austria or the Trias. Austria and the Trias get trounced? We'll make due with Prussia). In this case Bismark actually makes a beliveable claim against the small states- they're not supporting the war effort! In fact this claim is actually true- they aren't. German nationalism means that after the initial layer of nobles and officials who have a vested interest in keeping Germany split up are gone most Germans have little Nostalgia for their old statelets- unless, that is, Bismark screws up on the international scene (as occurred in Bavaria OTL after WWI) and drags Germany into a long unpopular war. Bismark's (and Cavour's) real genius was that he had a gut instinct for "managing" nationalist currents in the interest of the state. Napoleon's greatest failing was that he understood the strengh of nationalism and wanted to harness it to his aims- but never quite figured out how.
Again, bear in mind that unlike OTL Bavaria is a semi-willing partner in the consolidation of Germany. Bismark makes clear that he is perfectly OK with Bavaria annexing or subjugating Baden and Wurtenburg. The devil of it is that Bavaria seems like an accomplice to everyone else- so if they don't play along they will face the same distrust from the smaller South German states as Prussia does anyway! While Bavaria and Austria may distrust Prussia they also realize that Prussian support is the only way for Bavaria to keep the Palatinate out of French hands and for Austria to keep the Czechs/SLovenes/(maybe)Croats from gaining independence with Russian support. Neither state is strong enough to hold out against the Great powers on their own. They also realize that Bismark has good reason not to WANT to annex or federalize them- since that would give Catholics too much say within Bismark's North German confederation.
That said, the methods Bismark used to gain control of North Germany TTL are somewhat less cricket than OTL. That means a deeper layer of resentment. Combined with other factors the result is to make the upcoming Franco-Prussian clash a far more even proposition than OTL.
Finaly, bear in mind that the situation is quite confused. Prussia controls the telegram lines, Europe is engulfed in war, even the rulers are not quite sure what is going on. The man on the street is clueless. And by the time he gets a clue the new reality is in place.
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yboxman
Banned
#17: The gates of Vienna
September 1st, Bratislava, Austrian empire, Province of Upper Hungary (recognized), republic of Hungary (proclaimed), Autonomous kingdom of Slovakia (Proclaimed)
The Austrians had put up a fight for Bratislava. While outside the boundaries of the German confederation the population of the city was primarily German and had rallied to the Habsburg cause. For whatever reason (1) the Austrians had avoided retreating to Vienna and had remained to defend their loyal subjects from the revenge of the Magyars (2).
It was a defensible enough position, flanked by the Danube to the South, whose course by Austrians had dominated until recently(3), and a spur of the Carpathians to the north, which was one reason Milyutin had been content to build up his own strength over the past week rather than attempt to storm the defenses of the city.
There were other reasons, of course.
Foremost was the effect of the Austrians scorched earth tactics on the condition of his forces. Milyutin had counted on, indeed he had depended, on Hungarian supplies from the moment he crossed the Carpathians. The strategic military logic of carrying out what amounted to a two-pronged invasion of Austrian territory, rather than concentrating forces on either the Bukovinan-Hungarian front or the West Galician- Moravian front, was that while Russia had a great many of soldiers it had rather fewer good roads and almost no railways. Funneling supplies to masses of men was easier the farther apart they were and easier still if they could pillage enemy territory (4). That was what enabled Suvorov to campaign so successfully in Italy and Switzerland (5). Against a competent enemy with parity of forces this strategy would lead to disaster and defeat and detail- against the overstretched Austrians it had led to fantastic advances, albeit with no major victories on the field (6)
Unfortunately, the Austrians had seemed to grasp the essence of his strategy and had set the route of their retreat aflame. That was one reason Milyutin had taken care to advance through Slovak inhabited territory. The steps taken by the retreating Habsburgs had ensured that the Slovak "national guard" militia which dominated the Carpathian passes separating Galicia from upper Hungary (7) increasingly viewed the Habsburgs as enemies as bad as the Magyars and did not pester his North-South communication routes as much as they used originally did. Although…
Milyutin sighed. The Habsburg commander facing him was too clever by half. Before evacuating, and burning, Budapest, He had offered a bounty for every piece of telegraph wire presented to Habsburg officials in Transylvania and Upper Hungary, raising the Bounty as Habsburg presence on the ground grew scarcer. Slovak Militia men and nationalists might be apathetic to the Habsburg cause but a peasent, regardless of his nominal nationality would not be apathetic to their gold. Once the Austrians realized how effective this strategy was they had offered similar bounties in Galicia though too late to have as much impact as in the Cis-Carpathian war zone.
The result was that his communication with both his Northern forces and the political echelon was spotty, to say the least. That was what allowed the Austrians to surprise him at Mohac (8) and escape encirclement when his Galician troops pushed south through the Carpathians. That, and the Austrian railways, which while incomparable with the dense networks employed by the French and the Prussians, at least connected the major population and administrative centers (9) which was more than could be said for Russia.
Without a means of swiftly coordinating offensives amongst his own forces, let alone those of the Hungarian rebel forces south of the Danube he was forced to depend on local improvisation by notoriously low initiative local Russian commanders (10) and laboriously laid out pre given orders- while his enemy had excellent lateral communications and transportation on the Krakow-Vienna- Ljublajana line.
Indeed, for much of his supplies and communications he depended upon the Austrian infrastructure. The Danube river barges and Bratislava-Budapest railway line, with what few rolling stock the Hungarian provisional government was able to restore, were making all the difference in keeping his men semi adequately fed and even supplied with ammunition. More critically, the Bratislava- Budapest- Bucharest-Odessa Telegraph line offered him a very roundabout means of communication with St Petersburg and Cracow.
In Galicia, the Warsaw-Krakow line was being used to achieve a concentration and supply of Russian forces from the east far greater and swifter than Russia was used to. Of course, with the threat of Prussian intervention hanging over Russia should any troops enter German soil, that force was proving to be of very little use to Milyutin (11). The glacial but steady Russian mobilization had piled up nearly 400,000 troops on a front stretching from Cracow to Batislava and southwards and another 150,000 screening the Prussian frontier (12). Yet he could only bring 150,000 of them to bear against the 90,000 Austrians still fighting on non-German soil (13). And if he shifted his forces further south he would be unable to supply them.
Now, at least, the troops in position were sufficiently well supplied to launch a serious attack on Bratislava and have some hope of success. But of what use would that success be? The Austrians would simply retreat for the better defended Vienna positions and rely on those fortifications and the threat of Prussian intervention to maintain the untenable military situation. Already, the troops maintaining the Carpathian communication lines with Galicia were coming under hit and run raids from Saxon forces and Moravia and were unable to respond due to the political constraints on their activity.
He was mulling his options when Murat (14) approached with his steaming samovar and a pile of recently arrived telegrams.
(1) Partly morale, partly a decision by the political echelon to maintain a foothold outside the German confederation and so demonstrate that Austria was not simply hiding behind Prussian skirts but was prepared to defend the entire empire.
(2) Who are outraged at the burning of Budapest and the scorched earth tactics the Habsburgs adopted during their retreat.
(3) Chains, mines and emplaced artillery at hamuliakovo
(4) Of course the Magyars are technically allies- but Russia did not expect to keep the territory after the war and thus has little invested in it's economic or humanitarian well being.
(5) Suvorov is Milyutin's idol. Between 1852-1853 he spent his time, while recovering from wounds gained in the caucaus war, writing a five volume work describing in detail his Italian campaign.
(6) The Campaign to date is one where the Austrians succesfully hold a position- only to find that the Russians are outflanking them elsewhere.
(7) Slovakia. The Slovaks were one of the tardiest groups in the Austro Hungarian empire to develop national consciousness which is why both the Magyars and Habsburgs tend to overlook them. Milyutin does not.
(8) Minor Tactical Austrian victory, strategic Austrian setback.
(9) By 1859, Budapest, Vienna, Prague, Krakow, Bratislava, Ljublajana, Venice and Milan are all linked. Lvov and Zagreb, as well as the Banat and Transylvania remain unconnected until the early 1860's. In contrast Russia has two railway lines connected Moscow with St Petersburg and Warsaw with Krakow.
(10) And hot headed Hungarian national army commanders. Too much is as bad as too little.
(11) Earlier in the campaign that force had fixed Austrian troops in Moravia and had forced the Austrians to retreat from Mohac. But that was before the Prussian threat of intervention.
(12) Russia has an army larger than a million men. But the war has been going on for nearly five months and The Russians started shifting troops three months earlier. Of course, most of them are glorified peacekeeping troops and getting them from one place to another takes ages. And they are armed with muzzle loading muskets when the Western armies, and the better armed Austrian troops have rifles outranging them by a hundred meters.
(13) The Austrians are really at their breaking point. They have another 30,000 men as central reserve in Vienna, 20,000 (mostly second rate) men and a Saxon detachment guarding the Moravian approach to Vienna and putting down scattered Czech insurrections, 30,000 men holding the Alpine passes, and 60,000 men effectively gone AWOL in the Silent mutiny in Croatia. After the battle of Lake Garda that's what is left. There are also a host of Slovak, Serb and Romanian militias backed by the Habsburgs but they're looking out for their own interests.
(14) That's Murat the son of Shamil, leader of the Chechnian rebellion. The sons of the major rebels have been "honored" by being commissioned and serving in the Russian court and army in various capacities. It's a mix between hostage taking and "civilizing mission".
September 1st, Bratislava, Austrian empire, Province of Upper Hungary (recognized), republic of Hungary (proclaimed), Autonomous kingdom of Slovakia (Proclaimed)
The Austrians had put up a fight for Bratislava. While outside the boundaries of the German confederation the population of the city was primarily German and had rallied to the Habsburg cause. For whatever reason (1) the Austrians had avoided retreating to Vienna and had remained to defend their loyal subjects from the revenge of the Magyars (2).
It was a defensible enough position, flanked by the Danube to the South, whose course by Austrians had dominated until recently(3), and a spur of the Carpathians to the north, which was one reason Milyutin had been content to build up his own strength over the past week rather than attempt to storm the defenses of the city.
There were other reasons, of course.
Foremost was the effect of the Austrians scorched earth tactics on the condition of his forces. Milyutin had counted on, indeed he had depended, on Hungarian supplies from the moment he crossed the Carpathians. The strategic military logic of carrying out what amounted to a two-pronged invasion of Austrian territory, rather than concentrating forces on either the Bukovinan-Hungarian front or the West Galician- Moravian front, was that while Russia had a great many of soldiers it had rather fewer good roads and almost no railways. Funneling supplies to masses of men was easier the farther apart they were and easier still if they could pillage enemy territory (4). That was what enabled Suvorov to campaign so successfully in Italy and Switzerland (5). Against a competent enemy with parity of forces this strategy would lead to disaster and defeat and detail- against the overstretched Austrians it had led to fantastic advances, albeit with no major victories on the field (6)
Unfortunately, the Austrians had seemed to grasp the essence of his strategy and had set the route of their retreat aflame. That was one reason Milyutin had taken care to advance through Slovak inhabited territory. The steps taken by the retreating Habsburgs had ensured that the Slovak "national guard" militia which dominated the Carpathian passes separating Galicia from upper Hungary (7) increasingly viewed the Habsburgs as enemies as bad as the Magyars and did not pester his North-South communication routes as much as they used originally did. Although…
Milyutin sighed. The Habsburg commander facing him was too clever by half. Before evacuating, and burning, Budapest, He had offered a bounty for every piece of telegraph wire presented to Habsburg officials in Transylvania and Upper Hungary, raising the Bounty as Habsburg presence on the ground grew scarcer. Slovak Militia men and nationalists might be apathetic to the Habsburg cause but a peasent, regardless of his nominal nationality would not be apathetic to their gold. Once the Austrians realized how effective this strategy was they had offered similar bounties in Galicia though too late to have as much impact as in the Cis-Carpathian war zone.
The result was that his communication with both his Northern forces and the political echelon was spotty, to say the least. That was what allowed the Austrians to surprise him at Mohac (8) and escape encirclement when his Galician troops pushed south through the Carpathians. That, and the Austrian railways, which while incomparable with the dense networks employed by the French and the Prussians, at least connected the major population and administrative centers (9) which was more than could be said for Russia.
Without a means of swiftly coordinating offensives amongst his own forces, let alone those of the Hungarian rebel forces south of the Danube he was forced to depend on local improvisation by notoriously low initiative local Russian commanders (10) and laboriously laid out pre given orders- while his enemy had excellent lateral communications and transportation on the Krakow-Vienna- Ljublajana line.
Indeed, for much of his supplies and communications he depended upon the Austrian infrastructure. The Danube river barges and Bratislava-Budapest railway line, with what few rolling stock the Hungarian provisional government was able to restore, were making all the difference in keeping his men semi adequately fed and even supplied with ammunition. More critically, the Bratislava- Budapest- Bucharest-Odessa Telegraph line offered him a very roundabout means of communication with St Petersburg and Cracow.
In Galicia, the Warsaw-Krakow line was being used to achieve a concentration and supply of Russian forces from the east far greater and swifter than Russia was used to. Of course, with the threat of Prussian intervention hanging over Russia should any troops enter German soil, that force was proving to be of very little use to Milyutin (11). The glacial but steady Russian mobilization had piled up nearly 400,000 troops on a front stretching from Cracow to Batislava and southwards and another 150,000 screening the Prussian frontier (12). Yet he could only bring 150,000 of them to bear against the 90,000 Austrians still fighting on non-German soil (13). And if he shifted his forces further south he would be unable to supply them.
Now, at least, the troops in position were sufficiently well supplied to launch a serious attack on Bratislava and have some hope of success. But of what use would that success be? The Austrians would simply retreat for the better defended Vienna positions and rely on those fortifications and the threat of Prussian intervention to maintain the untenable military situation. Already, the troops maintaining the Carpathian communication lines with Galicia were coming under hit and run raids from Saxon forces and Moravia and were unable to respond due to the political constraints on their activity.
He was mulling his options when Murat (14) approached with his steaming samovar and a pile of recently arrived telegrams.
(1) Partly morale, partly a decision by the political echelon to maintain a foothold outside the German confederation and so demonstrate that Austria was not simply hiding behind Prussian skirts but was prepared to defend the entire empire.
(2) Who are outraged at the burning of Budapest and the scorched earth tactics the Habsburgs adopted during their retreat.
(3) Chains, mines and emplaced artillery at hamuliakovo
(4) Of course the Magyars are technically allies- but Russia did not expect to keep the territory after the war and thus has little invested in it's economic or humanitarian well being.
(5) Suvorov is Milyutin's idol. Between 1852-1853 he spent his time, while recovering from wounds gained in the caucaus war, writing a five volume work describing in detail his Italian campaign.
(6) The Campaign to date is one where the Austrians succesfully hold a position- only to find that the Russians are outflanking them elsewhere.
(7) Slovakia. The Slovaks were one of the tardiest groups in the Austro Hungarian empire to develop national consciousness which is why both the Magyars and Habsburgs tend to overlook them. Milyutin does not.
(8) Minor Tactical Austrian victory, strategic Austrian setback.
(9) By 1859, Budapest, Vienna, Prague, Krakow, Bratislava, Ljublajana, Venice and Milan are all linked. Lvov and Zagreb, as well as the Banat and Transylvania remain unconnected until the early 1860's. In contrast Russia has two railway lines connected Moscow with St Petersburg and Warsaw with Krakow.
(10) And hot headed Hungarian national army commanders. Too much is as bad as too little.
(11) Earlier in the campaign that force had fixed Austrian troops in Moravia and had forced the Austrians to retreat from Mohac. But that was before the Prussian threat of intervention.
(12) Russia has an army larger than a million men. But the war has been going on for nearly five months and The Russians started shifting troops three months earlier. Of course, most of them are glorified peacekeeping troops and getting them from one place to another takes ages. And they are armed with muzzle loading muskets when the Western armies, and the better armed Austrian troops have rifles outranging them by a hundred meters.
(13) The Austrians are really at their breaking point. They have another 30,000 men as central reserve in Vienna, 20,000 (mostly second rate) men and a Saxon detachment guarding the Moravian approach to Vienna and putting down scattered Czech insurrections, 30,000 men holding the Alpine passes, and 60,000 men effectively gone AWOL in the Silent mutiny in Croatia. After the battle of Lake Garda that's what is left. There are also a host of Slovak, Serb and Romanian militias backed by the Habsburgs but they're looking out for their own interests.
(14) That's Murat the son of Shamil, leader of the Chechnian rebellion. The sons of the major rebels have been "honored" by being commissioned and serving in the Russian court and army in various capacities. It's a mix between hostage taking and "civilizing mission".
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I think this entire passage needs to be rewritten. This should be King George V (who was King of Hanover at the time of the POD and at this point 2 years later.) He was also totally blind!
yboxman
I think things are really coming to a head. Probably Russia would be best off seeing if Austria would make a deal. Recognising Hungary and Russian gains further east. If they offer the Austrians something in return they might accept as the situation is rather perilous for them and also it would give them a chance to recover without becoming totally dependent on Prussia.
However I think you mentioned the alliance with France makes this politically difficult. Also that's a decision that would have to be made in St Petersburg, which is a long way away and probably has little understanding of the situation on the ground.
Milyutin could and it sounds like he will make a bid for Bratislava but he realises that unless he's able to break the Austrian army they can simply retire towards Vienna and he can only follow them by risking a wider war. On the other hand if he fails, while the Austrians don't have a lot to counter-attack with the Russian forces are rather stretched so he could end up having serious problems.
I think you're missing a bit from note 5 as it seems incomplete.
Looking forward to seeing how things develop from here. Hopefully the Austrians can hold but we shall see.
Steve
I think things are really coming to a head. Probably Russia would be best off seeing if Austria would make a deal. Recognising Hungary and Russian gains further east. If they offer the Austrians something in return they might accept as the situation is rather perilous for them and also it would give them a chance to recover without becoming totally dependent on Prussia.
However I think you mentioned the alliance with France makes this politically difficult. Also that's a decision that would have to be made in St Petersburg, which is a long way away and probably has little understanding of the situation on the ground.
Milyutin could and it sounds like he will make a bid for Bratislava but he realises that unless he's able to break the Austrian army they can simply retire towards Vienna and he can only follow them by risking a wider war. On the other hand if he fails, while the Austrians don't have a lot to counter-attack with the Russian forces are rather stretched so he could end up having serious problems.
I think you're missing a bit from note 5 as it seems incomplete.
Looking forward to seeing how things develop from here. Hopefully the Austrians can hold but we shall see.
Steve
yboxman
Banned
blind as a bat
Errr.... right you are. Was in a bit of rush writing that post. Rewritten.
What do you think of the "night of the long bayonets" scenario however? The only historical paralell to this "Blitzkrieg railway war" was the early stage of the Bolshevik revolution. It took over a much wider territory but obviously the opposition was more disorganized.
Errr.... right you are. Was in a bit of rush writing that post. Rewritten. What do you think of the "night of the long bayonets" scenario however? The only historical paralell to this "Blitzkrieg railway war" was the early stage of the Bolshevik revolution. It took over a much wider territory but obviously the opposition was more disorganized.
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yboxman
Banned
Well, that depends on which school of thought wins at court. Basicaly, the way I see things in retrospect the best of all possible worlds for Russia, which is far weaker than the other Great powers due to it's lack of industrialization, is to be the holder of the Balance between Prussia and France. For that purpose they want Prussia to be strong but not too strong.
But how do russians see things? OTL Alexander II and Gorchakov pushed an extremely, and in retrospect extremly short sighted pro-Prussian line until Alexander III switched course. TTL the pro French line is stronger but there is a realization that in any Bipolar partnership Russia is going to be the weaker side and will be vulnerable to Western invasion if France turns on them (after all, remember who burned Moscow. And France fought Russia in the Crimea only three years ago).
The alliance with France makes a seprate peace which does not gain the full war aims perfidious. The war aims are a free Hungary and Italy, Galicia for Russia, Russian non opposition to Nice Savoy to France, and French non-opposition to Russian repudiation of the treaty.
It also mandates Russia and France to support each other if Prussia intervenes before those war aims are gained and while Franco-Russian forces are in Hungary and/or Italy.
The moment Prussia and the confederation drew it's line in the sand flurried conversations about how to deal with it have been taking place but no concrete obligations have been made yet.
RIght now, if Prussia declares war on either ally for violating German confederation territory the other ally is obliged to support them... in theory.
Exactly. And as I mentioned communication between St petersburg and the front, especialy the Hungarian front, is patchy. More to the point, direct communication between Russia and France by telegram is cut off after the night of the long bayonets. Moltke and Bismark are trying to get within the allies decision loop.
The question is what do the men at the Front do? In France Napoleon III IS the man at the front. He can effectively assume personal command of the Army of the Rhine. Regnaud is effectively stuck in itlay while the Austrians (with promises of Bavarian aid) hold the Alp passes (which are goin to be snowed in in about a month and a half).
But in the Galician-Hungarian front... Well, it's realy up to Milyutin.
Looks like I managed to maintain the element of Suprise...
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yboxman
Banned
Plausability check time: Communications and transports in 1859
My default setting is that Telegram lines connect all capitals north of the Danube and most major cities (Not constantonopole. They weren't connected during the Crimean war anyway. But I think Bucharest and Naples have them now).
But If Prussia imposes a telegram blackout how long does it take messages to bounce back between France and Russia? Is there any underwater cable connecting Sweden with Russia? With Denmark?
How soon will St Petersburg know about Lake Garda? Or the night of long Bayonets? How long can Bismark keep the news from gettin out? I'm thinking no more than two or three days.
Is Milyutin smart enough to set up some fall back plan for communications before the war begins? Does he put his faith in the unwieldy official channels or does he maintain private channels with his brother in St Petersburg and Uncle in Paris?
How quickly can dispatch boats travel? How about land couriers switching horses? How about early middle aged men who've already taken serious wounds in the past? How long will it take Milyutin to reach Krakow from Bratislava if he rushes?
My default setting is that Telegram lines connect all capitals north of the Danube and most major cities (Not constantonopole. They weren't connected during the Crimean war anyway. But I think Bucharest and Naples have them now).
But If Prussia imposes a telegram blackout how long does it take messages to bounce back between France and Russia? Is there any underwater cable connecting Sweden with Russia? With Denmark?
How soon will St Petersburg know about Lake Garda? Or the night of long Bayonets? How long can Bismark keep the news from gettin out? I'm thinking no more than two or three days.
Is Milyutin smart enough to set up some fall back plan for communications before the war begins? Does he put his faith in the unwieldy official channels or does he maintain private channels with his brother in St Petersburg and Uncle in Paris?
How quickly can dispatch boats travel? How about land couriers switching horses? How about early middle aged men who've already taken serious wounds in the past? How long will it take Milyutin to reach Krakow from Bratislava if he rushes?
I just did some research on this. It seems that Sweden was connected to Denmark at this point, but the first line connecting to Finland (and thus Russia) wasn't opened until 1860.
yboxman
Banned
Then assuming no delays in transition the quickest system would be telegram from Paris to Amsterdam>dispatch boat to Copenhagan> Telegram to Stockholm>Dispatch boat to Finland>Telegram to St Petersburg.
This isn't too dissimiliar to what occured OTL during WWI. And it allowed Russia to learn of the miracle of the Marn within 2 days. TTL however you have two, rather than one "breaks" which need to be bridged (though the Amsterdam-Copenhagan break is shorter than the Calais-Copenhagan break. And there is no Uboat interception of traffic).
So how long would that take? How quick are dispatch boats in 1859? And would the Franco-Russian alliance have a system prepositioned for this eventuality or will they fumble around during the critical period trying to figure out how to communicate?
While Sweden was just switching from the semaphore system to telegram at the time, the Russian authorities were still using the semaphore for communications from Western Finland to Russia proper - in fact the line had just been extended to Turku an Uusikaupunki following the Crimean War. The first telegram line had opened in Finland between Helsinki and St. Petersburg in 1855, but I believe it was not operational in 1859 as it had been discontinued following the Crimean War. Regular mail travelled between Turku and St. Petersburg twice or thrice a week.
In theory the communication from Stockholm to St. Petersburg might have gone fully through the semaphore, as the old Swedish system might still be used up to the Ålands. Short googling has not yet revealed it to me how the Swedish and Russian semaphore systems "interfaced" with each other in the 1850s - if I was at work I could check our library and have a better answer for you.
The message might then still have to go by steam boat between Stockholm and the Ålands and/or the Ålands and Turku. Steam ships such as the Furst Menschikoff ran between Stockholm and Turku regularly at least once or twice a week - that might still have been the fastest connection available. A timetable from late 1858 below.
And as you might notice, for that ship at least the route would be suspended in late October because of the onset of winter. In winter the messages would have to travel across the frozen Baltic on a horse-drawn sleigh, and that would take a bit more time. In between open and frozen sea there was the period of "broken conditions" coinciding with what the Russians call rasputitsa when there was too much ice for the ships to operate and too little to run across by sleigh: during that time it would take a lot longer to get a message across.
The first steel-hulled ships specifically designed to be capable of breaking the ice and to operate around the year were taken into use on the route during the 1890s.
During the summer-autumn months I believe an official message sent via Stockholm might reach St. Petersburg in a single day, assuming the semaphore could be used the whole way, or it might take up to a maximum of a week, say, if it has to go by steam ship to Turku and then by mail rider to the imperial capital. The safest answer, IMO, would be somewhere in between the two options for this particular stretch.
yboxman
Banned
While Sweden was just switching from the semaphore system to telegram at the time, the Russian authorities were still using the semaphore for communications from Western Finland to Russia proper - in fact the line had just been extended to Turku an Uusikaupunki following the Crimean War. The first telegram line had opened in Finland between Helsinki and St. Petersburg in 1855, but I believe it was not operational in 1859 as it had been discontinued following the Crimean War. Regular mail travelled between Turku and St. Petersburg twice or thrice a week.
In theory the communication from Stockholm to St. Petersburg might have gone fully through the semaphore, as the old Swedish system might still be used up to the Ålands. Short googling has not yet revealed it to me how the Swedish and Russian semaphore systems "interfaced" with each other in the 1850s - if I was at work I could check our library and have a better answer for you.
The message might then still have to go by steam boat between Stockholm and the Ålands and/or the Ålands and Turku. Steam ships such as the Furst Menschikoff ran between Stockholm and Turku regularly at least once or twice a week - that might still have been the fastest connection available. A timetable from late 1858 below.
And as you might notice, for that ship at least the route would be suspended in late October because of the onset of winter. In winter the messages would have to travel across the frozen Baltic on a horse-drawn sleigh, and that would take a bit more time. In between open and frozen sea there was the period of "broken conditions" coinciding with what the Russians call rasputitsa when there was too much ice for the ships to operate and too little to run across by sleigh: during that time it would take a lot longer to get a message across.
The first steel-hulled ships specifically designed to be capable of breaking the ice and to operate around the year were taken into use on the route during the 1890s.
During the summer-autumn months I believe an official message sent via Stockholm might reach St. Petersburg in a single day, assuming the semaphore could be used the whole way, or it might take up to a maximum of a week, say, if it has to go by steam ship to Turku and then by mail rider to the imperial capital. The safest answer, IMO, would be somewhere in between the two options for this particular stretch.
Interesting.... I think the semaphore option sounds more likely but the various interfaces of messages from Telegram (Paris to Netherlands)>letter (amsterdam>copenhagen)>Telegram(copenhagan to Stockholm)>semaphore (Stockholm to St petersburg)>telegram (St petersburg to the front) >letter (so Milyutin can read it) Are going to take several hours-day each to translate and decode. More if Russian embassies function as badly as everything else about the country.
So let's go for a 4-8 day delay in messages from Paris. until October. then things get really messed up.
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