Alternate Battle of Poland 1914

How will this 'battle of Poland' end?

  • Germany and Austria-Hungary occupy Poland, negotiations follow, resulting in peace.

    Votes: 19 14.0%
  • Germany and Austria-Hungary occupy Poland, Russia refuses peace, Britain remains neutral.

    Votes: 45 33.1%
  • Germany and Austria-Hungary occupy Poland, Russia refuses peace, Britain begins naval blockade.

    Votes: 51 37.5%
  • Stalemate along the Narew, Vistula and San rivers.

    Votes: 7 5.1%
  • Russia occupies East Prussia and/or all of Galicia.

    Votes: 14 10.3%

  • Total voters
    136
Albania is not doing that cause that is an act of war on the CP, and as things go that seems like a very bad idea. There’s also the fact that Albania and Serbia don’t exactly like each other. And that Albania has very shitty terrain for logistics and is underdeveloped as balls.

As for the fleet, in a one on one the French definitely win. But the French have no bases in the Adriatic and their heavy units would be vulnerable to light craft in such confined waters. Without knowing what UK or Italy will do next they also can’t afford to deploy most of their fleet away from their ports.
True, for the time being couldn't they try to ship through Greece? Venizelos would probably allow it.
 
True, for the time being couldn't they try to ship through Greece? Venizelos would probably allow it.
He wouldn’t, tho. Not without Britain in the war and a Bulgarian and/or Ottoman entry on the side of the CP a very real possibility. He stands to gain very little for a lot of risk.
 
He wouldn’t, tho. Not without Britain in the war and a Bulgarian and/or Ottoman entry on the side of the CP a very real possibility. He stands to gain very little for a lot of risk.
Bulgaria is gooing to join, that much I'm 100% sure, but by that point they take Macedonia and cut land routes for supply to reach Serbia.
 
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BTW Helmuth, can we get a view on how things are on neutrals of interest such as Belgium, Sweden and Japan? I imagine the last one is salivating while looking at the French and German Asian colonies/protectorates/territories.
 
BTW Helmuth, can we get a view on how things are on neutrals of interest such as Belgium, Sweden and Japan? I imagine the last one is salivating while looking at the French and German Asian colonies/protectorates/territories.
Well, Belgium and the Netherlands will want to remain neutral at all costs, because the alternative is to become a battlefield. Swedish sympathy goes out to Germany, but prefers to remain neutral. It has a very small army, which is of little value. Read also Sweden during World War I

Regarding Japan I would like to quote a recent post by @raharris1973 :
While agree it is a great opportunistic moment, Germany's ability to retaliate is minimal, if the Japanese want vengeance for the Triple Intervention of 1895, it is all very convenient, and years ago I would have assumed it would be a more than even chance the Japanese would go ahead, British or no British, I no longer think so.

In my case, that comes from reading more about the internal politics of Japan at the time, in particular, Frederick Dickinson's War and National Reinvention: Japan in the Great War, 1914-1919
The great pusher of Japan's entry into WWI was the civilian Foreign Minister Kato Takaaki, not the armed services or the retired elder statesmen, aka the Genro. Kate's leg to stand on as Foreign Minister *was* the alliance with Britain, not national defense or strategic arguments. His initiation and control over the decision for war in this case actually pissed off the Genro and the services, more for him being the chief influencer/decider than for the decision itself.

Additionally, the decision to go to war against Germany was controversial within Japanese Army, bureaucratic and some Genro circles, including with Meiji Japanese 'founding father' Yoritomo Arigata, due to those institutions background being trained by the Germans and modeling many institutions on them, and having the view they were more effective.

Combined with Britain being initially uncommitted making overall German victory appear much more likely, Japan is most likely to stay out until Britain chooses a side.
 
Luxembuorg was occupied by Germany as in OTL right? If so, are they facing artillery bombardments from the French? I wonder if the static front could influence the French into novel ideas such as airplane bombers to try to force an opening, they need take pressure of the Russians and elán isn't gonna cut it against the German defences.
 
I wonder if the static front could influence the French into novel ideas such as airplane bombers to try to force an opening
Early WW1 bombing was handing the pilot a crate of bombs to toss overboard when he thought he was close enough. At the start of the war, aircraft duels took place with pistols because synchronization gears hadn't been introduced yet.

Unless the French are willing to wait until late 1916 when the technology begins to mature ... airpower won't be the deciding factor. Certainly not bombing. Even 1918's strategic bombers, colossal for the era, had a downright pathetic bomb load of about 350 kg (for the Gotha G.V) ... which is about the amount carried by early WWII dive bombers.
 
Early WW1 bombing was handing the pilot a crate of bombs to toss overboard when he thought he was close enough. At the start of the war, aircraft duels took place with pistols because synchronization gears hadn't been introduced yet.

Unless the French are willing to wait until late 1916 when the technology begins to mature ... airpower won't be the deciding factor. Certainly not bombing. Even 1918's strategic bombers, colossal for the era, had a downright pathetic bomb load of about 350 kg (for the Gotha G.V) ... which is about the amount carried by early WWII dive bombers.
I'm not saying it would be efficient or even work, I'm podering what would the French turn to in hopes of breaking ther Germans or at the very least take pressure off of the Russians on the east.
 
...French into novel ideas such as airplane bombers ...
FYI : the french were IOTL the first founding a dedicated bomber force (Groupe de Bombardement 1) with Voisin III planes in Sept 1914 conducting their first operations in early 1915 including a 'strategic' bombing of the BASF chemical works at Ludwigshafen
 
Aftermath
Aftermath

Although the Germans had hoped that Russia would be willing to make peace, they look forward to the continuation of the war with confidence. With Poland occupied by the Central Powers, the French defeated in Lorraine and the British still neutral, German security is not in danger for the time being. To defeat Russia definitively, Germany is looking for new allies. Talks are in progress with Sweden, Romania, Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire. Enver Pasha in particular seems to see this situation as an excellent opportunity to conquer Russian territories in order to realize his pan-Turkish dream. Through the Black Sea Raid, he draws the Ottoman Empire into the war. The two warships that it received from Germany at the beginning of August, as part of the German-Ottoman alliance, play the leading role in this.

The eastern front remains stable throughout the winter, although a few more battles are fought in Galicia and Bukovina. Von Moltke's health, meanwhile, is deteriorating, caused by the stressful period that the war in Poland has been for him. He therefore resigns in favor of von Falkenhayn, who becomes Chief of the Oberste Heeresleitung. Command of the eastern front is taken over by von Kluck, the hero of Tannenberg. The other war hero, von Hausen, falls ill due to bad autumn weather and therefore resigns as well.

Meanwhile, the Caucasus campaign, which had already begun in November, is progressing dramatically for the Ottomans. Soon they are driven back to their own territory by the Russians. Enver Pasha blames the Armenians for this defeat, after which the Armenian Genocide begins. The Persian campaign initially goes a little better, but the Ottomans are also driven back there. The growing Russian presence in Persia arouses mistrust among the British, who subsequently occupy the oil fields on the Persian Gulf. After all, the Anglo-Russian Convention has become a dead letter.

Since the front in Lorraine is deadlocked, the French are also shifting their attention to the Ottoman Empire. “Saving the Christians” fares much better in public opinion than “the reconquest of Alsace-Lorraine”. In March 1915, the Alexandretta campaign is launched, in an attempt to split the Ottoman Empire in two. When the Ottoman Empire falls and the Russians take possession of the straits, it will be easier to supply the Russians with weapons and ammunition, after which Germany can be defeated. Moreover, France has long considered the Levant to be part of its sphere of influence, so this is the perfect opportunity to actually gain a foothold there. However, the campaign turns out to be too ambitious, as the French are only able to occupy the area around the Gulf of Alexandretta. Nevertheless, a considerable number of Ottoman troops are bound and transport between Anatolia and the Arab part of the empire is seriously hampered.

With the start of May, Germany and Austria-Hungary launch a number of major offensives on the eastern front. As part of this, the HSF conducts operations in the Baltic Sea and captures the islands of Ösel and Dagö. The Germans take Vilna within six weeks and then advance to Riga and Dvinsk. The Austro-Hungarians have meanwhile conquered Rovno. This allows the Russians along the central front to retreat only through the Pripet Marshes before the net closes. However, many divisions fail to do so in time and have to surrender. In August the Dvina front is broken and the Germans advance further north. The offensive only comes to an end at the end of September, when the Russians stop the German advance at Narva, 150 km in front of St. Petersburg.

After the Russians have been expelled from Galicia and the Baltics, it is finally time to deal with Serbia. Bulgaria has joined the Central Powers in the summer of 1915 and is preparing its army. At the beginning of October, Serbia is invaded by the Austro-Hungarian, German and Bulgarian armies and completely wiped off the map within six weeks. Desperately, Serbian soldiers try to reach the Adriatic coast via Albania to be evacuated by the French. The Austrian navy disrupts this evacuation, forcing the entire Serbian army to surrender.

However, the stubborn Tsar is still unwilling to make peace and has even taken command of the Russian army himself. The German successes and poor performance of the French and Russians convince Romania to join the Central Powers. In May 1916, Bessarabia is taken with German support, after which the Russians are attacked from the rear. Another French attack in Lorraine to distract the Germans is of no avail. French soldiers begin to mutiny, no longer willing to sacrifice themselves in such senseless attacks.

Unrest is also increasing in Russia, mainly because of the incompetent leadership of the Tsar. Fueled by the food shortages, revolution breaks out, forcing the Tsar to abdicate. After this, a transitional government is formed, which calls for a ceasefire. The French government also recognizes that it has become impossible to win the war and therefore signs an armistice as well. In the autumn of 1916, Germany organizes a peace conference, at which the map of Eastern Europe is redrawn.

Europe_TheGreatWar.png
 
As it always goes in this kind of scenarios, the interesting part is Italy comes out of the war as still part of the Triple Alliance - even in OTL they only left as direct preparation for entering the war on the Entente side. Even more - because the war was more contained and clear-cut than OTL WW1 - it comes out as having stuck to the letter of the treaty as a whole, maintaining its neutrality in an offensive war. Where the fun does begin is when the Balkans get involved: there is no way in hell Italy does not impugn the related articles of the Triple Alliance treaties, especially if A-H makes moves towards Albania proper.
 
They are already out, even Germany knew they couldn't count on them,so Italy will be out any negotiation table
No? OTL, they only left on May 4th, 1915, one week after signing the Treaty of London with Britain. Here Britain isn't even in the war, and France is the very reason why Italy is in the Alliance to begin with. As the alliance required, Italy has maintained its benevolent neutrality for the entirety of the war. Austria-Hungary, on the other hand - the actor who violated the treaties time and again, forcing Germany to draft redacted version after redacted version (versions that A-H unerringly violated five minutes later) - would be about to violate them, again.
 
No? OTL, they only left on May 4th, 1915, one week after signing the Treaty of London with Britain. Here Britain isn't even in the war, and France is the very reason why Italy is in the Alliance to begin with. As the alliance required, Italy has maintained its benevolent neutrality for the entirety of the war. Austria-Hungary, on the other hand - the actor who violated the treaties time and again, forcing Germany to draft redacted version after redacted version (versions that A-H unerringly violated five minutes later) - would be about to violate them, again.
They already left when didn't joined the war, everyone knew it
 
As it always goes in this kind of scenarios, the interesting part is Italy comes out of the war as still part of the Triple Alliance - even in OTL they only left as direct preparation for entering the war on the Entente side. Even more - because the war was more contained and clear-cut than OTL WW1 - it comes out as having stuck to the letter of the treaty as a whole, maintaining its neutrality in an offensive war. Where the fun does begin is when the Balkans get involved: there is no way in hell Italy does not impugn the related articles of the Triple Alliance treaties, especially if A-H makes moves towards Albania proper.
Well, Albania can indeed become a problem during negotiations, because both Italy and Austria-Hungary want to control it. Perhaps Italy will receive compensation elsewhere? For example, recognition of the Dodecanese as an Italian property? IMO, after this war, the 'old' alliances will be over anyway.

I just read that Vlorë is already occupied by Italy in December 1914. This is not visible on my map. However, Greek-occupied Northern Epirus is visible.
 
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