The Dragon Rises High

I must say that I do enjoy how you can throw off the idea of what I think's going to hapen. A very good TL by that account.
 
While I can't say much about the military aspects of the TL, which seem to be the focus, I can say that there are some grave flaws when it comes to getting the cultural details right.

Faaelin is quite right in suggesting "Deus Destroyed" as a must read in regards to constructing plausible trajectories for Christianity in Japan at the time. Simply put, here are some things I find implausible:

1. Date was close to Christian missionaries, but in regards to conversion dynamics, Catholicism was top heavy in certain respects. Populations of a fief would convert en masse if the daimyo did with almost no real adherence or knowledge of Catholicism. Outside of certain areas of Southern and Western Kyushuu Catholicism was almost exclusively elite.

2. Catholicism was hobbled by an intense lack of manpower in priests and qualified laypeople that was exasturbated by the extreme reticience of many among the missionaries to elevate native Japanese to any level of ecclesiastic responsibility. This would lead to a major sense of resentment amongst native converts including a couple of spectacular defections (Fabian Fukasa). This lack of manpower was also compounded by disputes between the Catholic orders.

3. Buddhism would not be taking this without comment, as even after Nobunaga many of the largest branches still retained power and influence. Certain Daimyo were devotees of particular branches and many Buddhist polemics aimed at Christianity were written and diseminated for both elite and mass consumption. Also, like Catholicism, certain Buddhist orders had geographic areas where they were hegemonic in social influence if not political at this point. If anything, without the terauke system of temple registration setup by Tokugawa policy wonks to keep the Buddhist orders tamed as a part of the government beauracracy, they would be active and vociferous against any Christian influx, and most likely as prone to schism and sectarianism as ever. The Tokugawa was atypical in that all religion was tightly controlled. Before and after new groups popped up and more often than not wilted out like crazy. If anything, I'd expect syncretic new religious movements to pop up, much like the boom in late-late Tokugawa and early Meiji and the post WWII eras.

4. The emperor most likely would not be a quantity at this point in time against Catholicism, most of the mythology we know about his descent from Amaterasu and such was only widely organized and disseminated amongst the population post Meiji Reformation. Shinto as we know it is most a creation post 1868 and at the time we're talking about here mostly consists of small shrines attached to larger Buddhist temples and larger regional shrines dedicated to certain mythological traditions (one of the major debates of the 1870s was determining which Shinto mythology would be the state Shinto mythology; Ise Daijingu's Amaterasu centered ideology won out over the Izumo Taisha's multitudinous Kami version).

5. This I'm not as sure of, but if I recall correctly, Protestant missionaries did not go very far abroad in missionizing towards the unchurched until after the rise of Methodism and its impetus towards Evangelical Arminianism was developed. Most English and Dutch would be more concerned with good trade relations with the Japanese as opposed to their souls, and if religion got in the way of trade, they'd be more than willing to toss a spanner in the church's works, particularly if it was Catholicism. After all, as I said, disgruntled lay Catholics and prestanding cultural religious tradition towards sectarianism.

6. Much of Japan's still evident cultural solipcism derives from the long isolation of the Tokugawa period, without it, cultural barriers would be much more fluid, with Japanese ideas and values being seen as something potentially universal as opposed to linked to ethnicity and geographic space. Think something like Soka Gakkai only 350 years early.

So in short, I don't think 40% by any means for the entire nation. They couldn't get any one sect of Buddhism to be more than 20% at any given time after 1250, why Christianity, particularly when its hobbled in organization and logistics? Even Japanese-colonial era Korea which had just about *everything* going for it in regards to Christian conversion couldn't pull a 40% Christian number before secularism started taking its hits in.
 
Korea falling to Japan?

Okay, that's not possible, given the military capabilities of Joseon at the time.

What most people tend to underestimate is that although Yi Sun Shin did block material, the ground war of the Imjin War was decided by the new weapons that Joseon had managed to develop. Both new cannons, hwachas, and a time bomb contributed to blasting the Japanese into nothing. In fact, Korean artillery was still superior to the Europeon ones until the Industrial Revolution.


Jeez, the beginning was excellent, but Japan is unrealistically too powerful right now, with ignorance of the power of Qing/Joseon pretty much making this TL go lower.......



Sorry if I sound harsh, but I hate it when people are stuck in the "the Japanese are powerful!!!!!!!! Koreans are not militarily strong!!!!!!!!!!" mindset.
 
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I'm also a bit skeptical about the Japanese capability of conquering Korea in the 17th Century, though this part of the TL isn't done yet. I do see the conquest of Formosa as plausible. Overall, it's a decent TL.
 

maverick

Banned
Good to see people finally commenting on this one.
First, let me say that Catholicism is by no means the majoritary religion in the country, and if you must know, I was actually planning for a buddist revivalism in the aftermath of the war of the Six Years.

That being said, the Catholic Church does have a big deal of influence in the Shogun's court, as seen in some previous updates, and as for the numbers, its pretty much like this:
Tohoku: 41%
Shikoku: 10%
Kyushu: 43% Catholic; 18% Protestant
Edo: 23% Protestant; 19% Catholic
Rest of Honshu: 7% Catholic; 5% Protestant

The activity of Protestant missionaries is moved forward due to the activity of the catholics, which were at the time, if I am not mistaken, divided between Jesuits, Franciscans and Dominicans.

Secondly, The Japanese are not too powerful at the moment. They only control the Home Islands, Ezo, the Ryuku and Taiwan, with the rest being a maritime empire based on commerce and their superior Navy.

The early victories in the Korean campaign I attribute to a combination of more modern tactics, better muskets and the element of surprise. In case you haven't read the latest update, the Qing-Joseon armies turned the tide of the war at Pyongyang.
If you know more about the Korean technology of the time, please say so, help is always appreciated.
I'm still thinking of a way of cracking one of those Turtle Ships. Do you think European artillery would suffice?
 

maverick

Banned
Act XII

Two tigers at the gate

Through much of the winter and the early spring of 1686, the Japanese and the Chinese armies avoided any large confrontation in the fields of battle, instead preferring to fight small skirmishes while trying to regroup the battered armies and device a new strategy.
The Koreans, on the other hand, particularly through the famous anti-occupation militias known as the ‘Righteous Armies’, used the time following the battle of Pyongyang to harass and attack the Japanese forces at every opportunity they had, staging ambushes, attacking their supply lines, launching hit-and-run assaults and with several other actions, that would force the foreign armies to put as much attention to the irregular troops as to the Qing and Joseon armies.

The return of the spring allowed both sides to complete their recovery and their regrouping, finally being able to stand in battle again.
The new campaigns began with military actions on the behalf of the Joseon Army, by then fully mobilized and ready to fight the Japanese, leaving behind the general confusion and chaos of the early battles of 1685.

The initial battles along the Han river did much to further weaken the Japanese forces holding the Korean capital, while most of the reinforcements waited in reserve south of the city in case of a massive Qing-Joseon offensive.
Generals Date Munesane and Sanada Tokikichi were at the time holding the northern line against a force of 60,000 Koreans of the Joseon Army and 54,000 Chinese troops.
Although the use of the Tactics and weapons of the Imjin War was far less effective than it had a century ago, Korean troops still enjoyed a certain degree of superiority with long range weapons and artillery, the Korean Cannon still being superior to the pieces developed by the Japanese with the influence of the Dutch, the Spanish and the English.

The second Battle of Hanseong, fought on June 18th of 1686, would be the last decisive battle of the campaign of 1686, upon inconclusive engagements north of the capital and further east.
The initiative gained at Pyongyang remained on the Sino-Korean side, with the Qing-Joseon army launching a three pronged attack on the battered and exhausted Japanese lines east of the city of Hanseong, while some reserves south of the city itself.
Whether the reserves could have been able to turn the tide of the battle, the tide of the war had irremediably turn in the favor of the allied Qing-Joseon armies in the aftermath of Pyongyang, and would remain that way for the immediate future.

Victory rides the waves

The reversals suffered on the continent were meanwhile compensated with a continued Nipponese supremacy in the seas.
Through the history of the Date Shogunate, Japan had developed as a maritime power, combining the influence of the Dutch, Spanish, Chinese, English, Portuguese and Korean styles in the building of merchant vessels and warships with their own techniques, thus creating one of the most diverse yet effective navies of the Pacific and the world. Within three generations, the Qing and the Joseon navies were vanquished in the Eastern Seas in a series of decisive confrontations, much to the shock of everyone in the courts of Beijing, Edo, Hanseong and the remaining Eastern capitals.
Furthermore, the use and combination of European and Eastern tactics and strategies and a development of new ones thanks to the well known Japanese inventive spirit lead to the Creation of the ‘Empire of the Waves’, being in the 19th century called the ‘Britain of the East’.

During the war itself, several captains in the service of Nippon gained notoriety in their naval campaigns against China and Korea, thanks to their dynamism, courage, inventive innovation, boldness and in some cases recklessness. The most famous of them include the so called ‘Five Swords of Tsushima’, as the Nipponese captains of the battle were called in it’s afterwards: Tsuge Mogataru, Sanada Takeishi, Yamamoto Hiroshi, the famed catholic samurai and captain, Sebastian Yamata, and the Spanish corsair and mercenary, Fernando Escobar de Galindo.

The battle of Tsushima itself took place on August 2nd of 1686, beginning with an attempt on the behalf of the Sino-Korean captains to regain naval supremacy from the Japanese, cutting their supply lines and leaving the troops in the ground isolated from the Home Islands.

The battle would nevertheless end in one of the turning points in Naval History and the history of East Asia as a whole.
400 warships of the Qing-Joseon navy were gathered against 230 of the Nipponese fleet. Unlike the naval battles of the Seven Year war, now the Japanese warships were equipped with modern artillery, developed and perfected in Japan combining Korean and European technologies. Interestingly enough, Korean and Japanese technology flowed to Europe at the same pace, although not being as influential until the late 17th Century.

The decision and boldness of the Japanese captains against their more conservative Chinese counterparts might have had something to do with the outcome as well, as the insular forces were able to launch a outflanking attack against the allied fleet, with parts of the Nipponese fleet having waited east of the Tsushima islands for the allied fleet to move northwards, thus being able to attack their right flank, while the left flank was attacked by the warships coming from Pusan.
Upon surrounding the allied fleet, the Nipponese fleet under the overall command of Admiral Goto Isoroku, was able to prove both their superior fire power as well as their maneuverability, being able to ‘Cross the T’ twice during the battle.
Although Goto Isoroku would come to be Japan’s greatest heroes upon his victory at Tsushima, the admiral himself would be amongst the casualties of the engagement, resting in the bottom of the Strait of Tsushima with his flagship, the Satsuma.

Unfortunately, the victory at Tsushima would not be enough to turn the fortunes of the Imperial armies on the land, as the continued Qing-Joseon thrust continued to push the Japanese further south, to their network of fortresses, an improved and enlarged version of the 16th century, known as Wajo or Waeseong then, and now a place where the fate of the Korean campaign would be decided.
 
I'm curious to see what affects this will have on Chinese attitudes to development. With a stronger Japan to resist Chinese hedgemony, they could be forced to trade with Europe much sooner simply to keep up.
 
The early victories in the Korean campaign I attribute to a combination of more modern tactics, better muskets and the element of surprise. In case you haven't read the latest update, the Qing-Joseon armies turned the tide of the war at Pyongyang.
If you know more about the Korean technology of the time, please say so, help is always appreciated.
I'm still thinking of a way of cracking one of those Turtle Ships. Do you think European artillery would suffice?

The problem with the early victories was that they were impossible in the first place. After the wrecking Joseon got from Japan and Qing, they became militarized, to the point that they chased the Russians from Qing territory after the Chinese were unable to stop the Russians from encrouching.

Also, Joseon also had the latest muskets. Several Dutch were stranded in Jeju not that long ago from this TL, and they started producing guns for the Koreans, which were at par with the most advanced ones and were in large numbers. Plus, the cannons were still among the best in the world.

As for "more modern tactics," I'm not sure what tactics could be the deciding point in a battle between similarly armed armies, except using the geography and the such.

In the naval area, the Japanese could still not win. The galleons of this era were still weak compared to the Joseon ships at this time, and when you count how Joseon ships could literally bounce cannon balls off their sides, without ironclads, Joseon would not have lost any naval battles unless the admiral was a total failure. No tactics could defeat ships that were nearly unbreakable.

And finally: Qing were busy in the west at this time, so they couldn't actually mobilize a large army to help Joseon.



All in all, good attempt, but lack of knowledge, and especially how "modern" tactics helped the Japanese at both land and sea, sank this TL in my view.
 
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maverick

Banned
I'll address the matter of tactics later, when I take a break from writing the war and can make more time for culture and such.
Contact with Europe and experience fighting in India, the civil wars and Siam (I'll address a section to SouthEast Asia later, as well) allow the japanese to experiment with european, east asian and their own tactics, as well as developing new ones.

Secondly, the japanese ships combine Korean and European technology, so the Joseon and the Japanese ships would be pretty much built in the same way.

Thirdly, I was aware of the conflict the Qing were facing with the Mongols and the Russians, though I thought that the Kangxi Emperor did not actively intervened until the late 1680s.

Finally, being a Korean, there's probably no way in which I can convince you that there's a way in which the Japanese could have won the early campaigns in the first place, aye?;):p
 
Thanks for the numbers, though I must comment further.

First off, the POD postdates the San Felipe incident, so the reprecussions would still be having a major effect. The San Felipe incident was one of the major reasons OTL why the Japanese started to distrust the Western powers.

In short the San Felipe incident occurred when a Spanish trading vessel was shipwrecked off of Japan in either 1598 or 1600 (I don't have my major sources on hand as it is still packed up). The captain was taken before several officials and testified that the Spanish trading and religious ventures were part of a vangard of colonization, as had been done in the Philipines and South America. He wasn't pressured to say this. He was simply an idiot with a big mouth. In any case, it scared a goodly portion of people in power.

Second, other than the Jesuits, most conversion methods by the other orders was fraught with incompetance, to the point where it was recorded that Franciscans were so desperate to keep up with the Jesuits that they took buckets to the marketplace and converted passersbys to Catholicism simply to boost their numbers. In other words, no follow-up. Daimyo would also pressure the people in their feifs to mass convert with no follow up in religious instruction by priests, this was most likely due to the shortage of trained preists and lay, as I've stated before. The amount of priests for all Japan even at the peak OTL was well below 200, and a goodly portion were stuck in secular duties.

Thirdly, While I would agree that the numbers for Kyushuu and and Edo would be higher than the rest of Japan, it would follow certain patterns. Most of the Kyuushu converts would be located in the West and South of the island, where the traders and priests were centered, the North and East of the island were strongholds of the Jodo Shinshu and Zen sects and almost no headway was made OTL. Shikoku was a center of the Shingon sect (and still is) with a major Shingon pilgrimage route going through the island. I doubt the Catholic preists would make much headway there.

Edo no doubt would have a higher than average Christian population, but it was also a major center of converage for the Buddhist sects, being that they all would be jockeying for position in the governments eyes. I'd agree that the the Tohoku region would be high, simply put, social dislocation is best for religious change. Still, I would scale the numbers back a bit and finesse it.

Also, you still need to explain why Protestant missionaries are hitting Japan when OTL they weren't sending out missions to the unconverted to any part of Asia until the late 1700s-early 1800s OTL.The idea of "The Great Commission" simply wasn't there yet. That's a biggie right there.
 

maverick

Banned
All very good points.

I did not know about that incident. What an drunken idiot that captain sounds!

I'll address the issue of the protestant missionaries in the future (not the near future, perhaps two or three updates after the current events, when I use the end of the century to muse about the technological and religious consequences here and in Europe)
I'm sure once word spreads about how the spaniards try to convert the japanese into allies and clients by religious methods, the dutch and the english will do the same and send missionaries, for the sake of creating a larger base of clients.:p

Government and roman support makes sure that the numbers of priests in Nippon is increased, and in this TL, there are be japanese priests.

Secondly, about Kyushu, The Shimazu clan would presumably be in the Catholic camp, and in the aftermath of the war of 1613, they de facto control Kyushu. Of course, that would require the other daimyos to acknowledge that through some sectarian wars between the daimyos, but the Satsuma domain was always the strongest one in the island, as will be seen in a future update about the 1700s:cool:;).


I doubt the Catholic preists would make much headway there.

10% of the population in 100 years is not much headway anyways...
 

maverick

Banned
Act XIII

Less-than-divine intervention

The unexpected collapse of the Japanese armies in mid-1686 forced a massive retreat towards the Wajo, a line of fortresses previously built by the Nipponese forces during the invasions of 1592, now rebuilt and expanded for the purpose of holding the advancing Korean and Chinese armies.
The coming of the winter brought an abrupt end to hostilities, allowing both sides to regroup and prepare their positions.
While the severely beaten Japanese armies were being forced to build defenses and in some cases being evacuated to the Home Islands due to lack o space for the troops to group, on the other side of the line new developments would cause profound changes in the development of the conflict, of both military and political nature.

Qing China, while engaged with Japan in the East, was at the same time occupied in the west, with the affairs of Tibet and the Mongols being directly under the sphere of influence of China, not to mention the conflict with the Russians at Manchuria and Siberia.
While the fighting along the Amur was under control, in part thanks to Korean help, the crisis in Mongolia would suffer a terrible change in the year of 1687, when the conflict between the Dzungar and the Khalkha Mongols escalating into a bloody war that finally forced the Kangxi Emperor to intervene in the summer of 1687.
Galdan, the Dzungar chief and an alleged ally of the Russians, lead the war against the Qing, defeating the initial Chinese military incursions of 1687 and forcing the Kangxi Emperor to devote all of China’s power to deal with him.
Although only a part of the Qing Imperial Army had fought the Japanese at Korea and Taiwan, the troops were needed in the West and thus peace terms were negotiated with the Japanese in late 1687, while the Koreans and the Japanese were entrenched in Southern Korea, fighting an endless Siege war over the South Korean Fortresses.

The defeats of the Qing fleet at the hand of the Japanese and the destruction of an entire army by the Dzungar Mongols had forced the Peace of 1687, signed at Qingdao on November 8th, according to the Historical records.
By the Treaty, the Qing Empire acknowledged the loss of Taiwan to Japan and recognized the Japanese possession of the Ryuku Islands, Taiwan and Tsushima, while agreeing to pay moderate monetary war reparations to the Empire of the Sun.
Although the treaty seemed to have given the Japanese the victory in the war, it allowed China to fight the Mongols in the West with all of her resources, at the expense of money and land that had been long lost anyway.

Meanwhile, the campaigns in Southern Korea continued between Nippon and Korea, castle for castle, town for Town, for two years, exhausting both sides and leaving the region unrecognizable for years.
Both sides used the same weapons, and with time, the same tactics, but although the Japanese had gained control of the seas, the Koreans had turned things on the mainland, achieving numerical and tactical superiority and forcing a peace treaty between Joseon and the Date Shogunate in May of 1689, Six years after the start of the war.


The Long Peace

The Six Year war was officially ended by the Treaty of Pusan, signed between the Empire of Japan and Joseon Korea on May 15th of 1689.
By that time, the Japanese presence in the Korean peninsula had been reduced to the Castle of Pusan, which had resisted a seven month siege and seemed to be far from falling when the armistice was declared on late April.
The war itself had far reaching consequences in the region that would determine the geo-political scenery for East Asia for the following generations, on one side cementing Japan’s role as the leading naval power of the East while leading to a rise of Korea as a military power, having been able to defeat the Japanese upon being abandoned by the Qing.
Pusan would remain in Japanese hands for another 30 years, as an isolated outpost of Nippon, the fortress finally returning to Korea during the 1720s, during Japan’s brief ‘dark decade’, the final outcome of the decadence produced by the post-war crisis.
Tsushima and Cheju-do were, on the other hand, more permanent acquisitions by Japan, remaining as part of the Empire for the centuries to come, despite the protests from the Korean Empire.

The remaining 13 years of the century were spent rebuilding, in Korea, Japan and China, although the Kangxi emperor would spend most of his time fighting the Mongols in the west, leading massive armies against the forces of Galdan Khan, who finally succumbed in 1697, although the campaigns against the Dzungars would continue under the Qing Emperor and his successors.

Military consequences of the War

Although tales about the bravery, boldness, chivalry and courage abound on both sides of the war, the conflict is also renowned for the importance of the military aspects and innovations displayed both on the land and on the seas.
After decades of blood fighting in wars as far as India, Siam and even during the civil conflicts within Japan itself, massive amounts of experience were put into practice during the Six Year war.
Not only the use of modern muskets on both sides, but also of innovations such as the bayonet, introduced to Japan by French sailors in the 1670s and first used during the various anti-government uprisings, such as the ‘Jesuit rebellion of 1678’ or the smaller ‘Shimabara rising’ of 1675, with great success, greatly changing the face of Japanese infantry tactics.
The infantry itself, along with the cavalry, played a vital role in the war, beginning the slow process of replacing the traditional Samurai, which would eventually become the Officer class within the Japanese military and society, with a more efficient army of conscripts, easily trainable and used in formation with great efficacy and efficiency.
The use of multiple firing lines, early introduced in the 1500s, entrenching, which allowed the troops to take cover from enemy fire, Diamond-shaped formation, although to a more limited extent than regular formations although it allowed the force to rapidly change direction and maneuver, as well as the use of columns, formations less than a hundred men wide and containing an entire brigade in tight formation, combining constant movement and sheer mass with great effect.
And although the Koreans and the Chinese would eventually learn of all of this tactics, the use of them early in the campaign allowed the Japanese a great advantage and even greater experience that would later be used in subsequent wars, both abroad and in Home.

But more interesting that the lesions learnt in the East are the lesions learnt in the West, after 100 years of contact between the Empires of the East and the West, and especially after such a fantastic demonstration as was the Six Year war. Japanese army tactics and technologies of the East, such as that of the Korean Cannon and the Ironclad vessels taken from the Turtle ships and the Atakebune would have an important impact in European military and political history throughout the mid 17th century and the early 18th century.
 
All very good points.

I did not know about that incident. What an drunken idiot that captain sounds!

I'll address the issue of the protestant missionaries in the future (not the near future, perhaps two or three updates after the current events, when I use the end of the century to muse about the technological and religious consequences here and in Europe)
I'm sure once word spreads about how the spaniards try to convert the japanese into allies and clients by religious methods, the dutch and the english will do the same and send missionaries, for the sake of creating a larger base of clients.:p

Government and roman support makes sure that the numbers of priests in Nippon is increased, and in this TL, there are be japanese priests.

Secondly, about Kyushu, The Shimazu clan would presumably be in the Catholic camp, and in the aftermath of the war of 1613, they de facto control Kyushu. Of course, that would require the other daimyos to acknowledge that through some sectarian wars between the daimyos, but the Satsuma domain was always the strongest one in the island, as will be seen in a future update about the 1700s:cool:;).




10% of the population in 100 years is not much headway anyways...

Yes, that Captain did probably the most damage to the Catholic Cause in Japan than perhaps anything else, as he made many people with positions in the government quite uneasy with Christianity and the Western powers. Suffice to say, I'm willing to accept Date and his pals with strong economic connections to the West being willing to overlook that, but OTL the Buddhist orders used it to great effect in polemics and many others in the goverment, both national and regional were quite concerned.

The Protestant thing is really going to be hard for you to pull off really. It requires some *massive* cultural changes in Europe to pull off by the POD. In other words Arminian theology coming into vogue much earlier than OTL. It would be easier by any means to have the "Protestants" in Japan actually be breakaway Catholics. Goodness knows there was quite a bit of tension between the missionaries and the native lay leaders on certain issues. Given further growth and less governmental persecution, I could easily see many Japanese Catholics split away on issues of leadership, heterodox practices and most importantly the issue of ancestor veneration (which is as big a deal in Japan as China if expressed differently, but never really came to fore due to the shortage of priests and religious instruction). I could also see certain elements of those in power who due to contact with Dutch and English and fear of the Spanish would foster a split between Christians.
So, breakaway Catholics inspired by Protestant traders and suspicious lords forming a "Church of Japan"? Well within plausibility. Missionaries from England, Holland and Scotland? Nuh-uh. Big thing is, since a "Church of Japan" could fit itself to Japanese cultural mores much more easily, they'd outpace the Catholic church, just as native Protestant movements have done better in gaining converts than foreign churches OTL in most of the developing world.
In any case, the English and Dutch would have little scruples about who they dealt with in this era. If Buddhists were where the money was, that's who'd they deal with.

The problem with getting more Japanese clergy and laypeople wasn't with the government or Rome, it was with the foreign missionaries not wanting to cede power to the natives. This was pretty endemic at a grassroots level, as when one of the heads of the Jesuits in Japan (Valignano I think it was) tried to bring in more Japanese priests and lay brothers, many of those under him greatly discouraged the effort. This sort of superior mindset is going to be pretty hard to get around. It wasn't untill the 1800s before both the Catholic and Protestant missionaries would realize that the native converts might want to have a say in their church.

One thing, Satsuma's got their work cut out for them, and beating up on staunchly Buddhist areas in Kyushuu is going to draw some attention from other folks in Honshu. Powerful folks. I would draw it akin to this, Japan at the time is gigantic patchwork quilt when it comes to religion. While certain Buddhist sects are dominant in some places, theres not really any region where they are hegemonic, though the influence of certain sects can be high in certain areas. Southern and Western Kyushuu had no real sect that had much influence and Catholicism filled the void there as it did in certain other areas in Japan OTL. In OTL there are also other areas where Catholics made absolutely no headway at all, despite trying repeatedly. Simply put, either the powers that be in the area were against Christianity, or whatever Buddhist group was particularly strong there.

Buddhism in Japan was anything but monolithic, it was one of the reasons the Catholics could find a niche, but it is also a reason why widespread hegemony in any large area or influence in certain areas is going to be next to impossible. The Buddhist sects had been squabbling and fighting each other for hundreds of years by this point, they were old hands at the game of maintaining power bases and propagandizing. That's why the Tokugawas did their damndest to make sure the Buddhist temples were a branch of the government and why even during the peak of Meiji Restoration nuttiness, they couldn't get rid of them.

10% for Shikoku is *impossible*, given the situation at the time. Too many temples, too many monks, too many devout lay people and it was utter boondocks. It would be better to head to urban areas or areas still being settled where converts are more approachable.

10% for Japan as a whole with certain subregions (not whole islands) approaching a majority and with Christians being in positions of governmental power is doable, but up to the limits of historical plausibility. Taking Korea out of the equations (like I said, it's a *very* unique case), the only other time Christianity did so well against a literate tradition was in Vietnam, and *that* took over 100 years, and you gotta remember that the Catholic church had gotten more deft in their missionizing by that time.
 
Finally, being a Korean, there's probably no way in which I can convince you that there's a way in which the Japanese could have won the early campaigns in the first place, aye?;):p

Not really. If this was set at least 50 years back, then Joseon would have been steamrolled. You just chose bad timing: Joseon from the 1670's to the 1720's was when it was most militarized in its history.
 
An interesting bunch of developments there. With Korea being more embittered towards Japan and China, it would seem a strike for greater independence could be likely.
 

maverick

Banned
Act XIV

Effects in Europe

Ever since the Keicho embassy of 1613-1620, European-Japanese relations had been prosper and stable. The Spanish-Japanese alliance and the understanding between the Empire of Japan and the Holy See were the first instances of a long history of Euro-Nipponese agreements and alliances that would continue with many commercial and diplomatic agreements between the Japanese, the Dutch, the Portuguese, the English and the Spanish.
Embassies from New Spain and the Court of Madrid to Japan, and once again from the Empire of the Sun to Europe became more common during the Date Shogunate, especially during the 1640s and 1660s, and again in the late 1670s and early 1680s, before the Six Year war, a period occupied by a strengthening of relations between Japan and France, having both first started relations in the Keicho Embassy.
The decline of Spanish Power and the rise of France under Louis XIV did much to further the Franco-Japanese alliance, as did the shared rivalry with the Dutch and the English, which were threatening Franco-Japanese interests in the European and Indian continents, as well as in the Atlantic and the Indian oceans.
Although the Franco-Japanese alliance would not become of relevance until the late 1670s, Franco-Japanese cooperation had started in the 1660s, both collaborating in the Indian ocean against the East India Company of the English and the Dutch, while the Japanese began to reform their army along French lines, taking advantage of the experience gained in the Wars against England, Spain, the Holy Roman Empire and the Dutch.
It is of worth to notice that during this time the Spanish-Japanese alliance was still in effect, to the point in which the Sendai Archdiocese was still a de facto Spanish base of operations, while Samurai and Ronin sent by the Date Government cooperated with the Spanish in the ‘Reconquista’ of the southern Philippines against the Muslims resisting Spanish domination.

During the time, many palaces of Spain and France, as well as some in the Papal states, came to be decorated with many of the Shoguns’ gifts, which included Japanese armors and weapons, elaborated paintings and rugs, as well as pottery and writings, the Haiku poems acquiring a great deal of popularity amongst certain social circles of the Spanish and French courts.
But by far the greatest contributions that came from the Far East were of military nature, particularly the introduction of weapons such as the Korean Cannon and the Ironclad ships, based on the Korean Turtle Ships and the Japanese Atakebunes.
It was actually the desire for better technology that lead to the massive interest in Korea in the mid Seventeenth century, although the Joseon dynasty would not entertain any prospects of an alliance until the afterwards of the Six Year war.

Korean cannons would initially be too ‘foreign’ to be used immediately, although the Spanish at first, and the Dutch and the French secondly, would experiment with them through the 1660s and 1670s, finally using European versions of the Korean technology on more massive levels during the 1680s and 1690s, during conflicts such as the War of the Grand Alliance and the War of the Spanish Succession.
While the greater accuracy and range of the Korean cannons allowed European artillery to inflict further pain and destruction upon the enemies of their nations, on the seas the great innovation of the Ironclad warship created an even greater effect in the history of Naval warfare, forever changing the face of Naval History in Europe.
Although many admirals of the Spanish navy disregarded such a technology during the 1640s and 1650s, during the 1660s and 1670s the Spanish, the French and the Dutch would experiment and build their own versions, combining what was learned from the Koreans and the Japanese. By the 1680s, the three navies had built a sufficient number of Ironclads to impose terror on one another, and the English and the Swedish were starting to experiment with that technology as well.
The use of the Ironclad warships was first seen in the Spanish Navy, as they were used to defend convoys and ships coming from the West Indies, as well as for fighting piracy and the activity of corsairs.
The wars of the Grand Alliance and the War of the Spanish Succession would nevertheless be the first ones in which Ironclad ships would be used in open warfare, taking part of many battles between the French and the allied forces.
The first example of the use of Ironclad ships in Europe was the Battle of Barfleur of 1692, in which an Anglo-Dutch force attacked a French fleet preparing for an invasion of England. Although the allied forces prevailed in their goal of stopping the invasion and the restoration of the Stuarts, the French ‘turtle ships’ proved to be superior to their enemies on numerous occasions, at some times repelling several ships at the time. Bad Luck and numerical superiority meant that the French Armada would not invade England, but the battle did much to improve the reputation of Ironclad vessels through Europe, especially in the North and in Britain.

Other aspects, such as the development of art and philosophy were affected as well, the presence of eager Japanese artists and students greatly increasing with the passing of time, and Japanese interests hardly being reduced to military matters. While some artistic representations such as Kabuki Theater and Haiku poetry enjoyed an excellent reputation in several European circles and courts, European culture, such as the music of Haydn and Bach, and Shakespeare’s plays, began to gain popularity in Edo and in some Daimyo’s courts, although at a slower pace, due to the conservatism of several powerful figures in Japan.
Japanese ideas began to spread to Europe as well, as did European ideas in the Empire of the Sun, to the point in which even things such as the Japanese language were affected by the exposure to foreign influence, to the point in which there was a small traditionalist revival in Japan during the 1780s, as part of a new trend to give more importance to the Japanese culture and identity, although such movements would fail to stop the march of progress in the area.

The Japanese wars of Religion

Unlike its equivalents in Europe, the religious and sectarian conflicts in Japan were far from general war most of the times, being limited to small scale confrontations between followers of different religions, daimyos of different faiths, and in some cases, the Shogunal government and the Catholic Church themselves against the forces opposing them.

Long before the arrival of the Catholic Church in Japan and her missionaries, the old Empire had been dominated by the Buddhist religions, which although divided in several regional sects, was able to exercise quite a level of control through the nation.
Thus the spread of the Christian faith at Tohoku and Kyushu were seen as menaces to the power of the Buddhist spiritual monopoly over the islands.
While many daimyos converted to Catholicism and with them the people in their domains, other lords remained loyal to their local Buddhist sect, to the point of persecuting Christian missionaries and peasants in their Han and clashing with the catholic daimyos of Kyushu and northern Honshu.
Shikoku and most of Honshu thus remained under the firm control of the various Buddhist branches, such as the Zen, Shingon, Tendai, Nichiren, and Amidistbranches, to the point in which several Buddhist daimyos began to engage in open warfare against Christian lords on large scale during the 1650s and 1660s, particularly in Kyushu, Chubu and Tohoku.
The conflicts in Kyushu, where the Shimazu clan of the Satsuma domain practically ruled supreme, were particularly bloody, attracting Buddhist ronin, samurai, peasants and ‘warrior monks’ against the daimyos of the West and South of Kyushu, and despite the end of most battles in victories for the military superior Satsuma domain, resistance to Christianity would continue for the generations to come, the power of the Buddhist sects in Honshu never banishing even when facing the Shogunal government of Edo.
And to make things more complicated, Christianity itself was not united in Japan, but terribly divided, first between Dominicans, Jesuits and Franciscans, and later between Catholics and protestants.

Protestantism in Japan began with the arrival of Lutheran priests in Dutch and English merchant ships, mostly at Edo and Nagasaki, operating without the support or authorization of the churches of Europe, but nevertheless spreading their own version of Christianity in the Eastern Empire. With time, Protestantism in Japan grew in numbers, thanks to the support of some lords and daimyos suspicious of the Catholic Church, and even breakaway Japanese Catholics, just as it had happened in Europe and England, and thus the sectarian divisions and conflicts in Japan grew in size and complexity.
Of course, the Six Year war put a temporary end to the matter, although at the same time the Catholic Church and the Buddhist sects used the occasion to further their own goals and power.
The Church had since the 1640s began to ‘draft’ and recruit Japanese missionaries, in the view of the lack of European missionaries and laymen, and also due to the rivalry with the more efficient Jesuits. Thus, despite the protests of several European missionaries fearful of losing their power, government and roman support, as well as the need to counter the Jesuits and the Buddhists, forced the growth of the Church in the North of Japan and Ezo, where the land reclamation project of the government called for the Christianization of the peasants, much to the anger of the powerful Buddhist sects in Honshu, Shikoku and Kyushu.

Thus the first true Japanese war of Religion began on Japan, in the year of 1698, when an army of peasants and warriors loyal to the Buddhist daimyos of northern Kanto attacked several catholic missions through southern Tohoku, and killing Christian peasants, triggering a massive response from the daimyos of the North, who joined against the southern threat, first on the principle of a border war between rivaling daimyos, and finally due to the true reason of the fight: religion.
Soon enough, the catholic daimyos and peasants of Kyushu and Edo joined the fight, attacking the Buddhist followers, and forcing a massive counterstrike against Christians through the entire Empire of Japan.
It is often argued that Christianity as a whole would have been mostly eradicated from Japan hadn’t it been for two things: first, the support of the Date Shogunate and its powerful armies, as well as the powerful armies of Satsuma and the Catholic orders, and secondly, the deep divisions between the Buddhist sects of Honshu, divisions that lead to terrible fighting and bickering between Buddhist daimyos, commanders and monks, to the point in which at several times they started attacking each other instead of their common enemy: Christianity.

But perhaps the most interesting development of the war was the formation of the first Religious military order of Japan, the Michaelites, named after Archangel Michael, and sponsored by the Archbishop of Sendai and, to some level, Shogun Date Tsunamura.
The order of Michael was created along the lines of the Knights of Malta and the Teutonic Knights, with the purpose of defending the Christian faith and serving the orders of the Archdiocese of Sendai. Catholic Samurai and Ashigaru (foot soldiers, recruited amongst the peasantry), as well as Ronin were recruited from Sendai to form the new order, which served as a personal army for the Catholic Church at Sendai and as an equivalent of the Buddhist warrior monks that fought in the lines of the Buddhist armies of Honshu. While many of the ronin were Christian, others simply joined for the money or the opportunity to regain some honor and prestige, after living a master-less life.

The Japanese war of Religion officially ended on the winter of 1705, after six years of war, with the truce of Edo. The Buddhists had de jure lost, even though the war was technically a stalemate. The real losers were the Buddhist daimyos unlucky enough to face superior catholic armies in battles in which religion had little tactical importance.
Thus the domains of some lords of Kyushu and Tohoku were expanded, although in reality both sides were exhausted and far from any real victory, especially with the Buddhist sects still holding a vast power over the masses and being resented and suspicious of the Catholic Church.
 
This could lead to serious problems for Japan. Two major Religions with a grudge against the other willl definetly rock the boat at some point.
 

maverick

Banned
Act XV

The Indian wars

While in the east the Japanese were rising as the predominant naval power in a long process that would last most of the 17th century, the influence of the Empire of the Sun in the Indian subcontinent was becoming one of the most decisive factors in the development of the politics and history of the Continent.
First through the action of the Red Seal Ships and later thanks to direct intervention on the behalf of the Shogun, a strong Japanese presence was created in southern India, particularly around the city of Travancore and the region of Kerala. Trade soon became Japan’s main weapon to expand her influence in India, while for the rulers of Travancore it came as a golden opportunity to increase their own power and influence.
By the 1650s, not only was Travancore acquiring military technology from Japan, but also Nipponese warriors and mercenaries, which allowed a rapid military and territorial growth for the small kingdom, and with the help of Japanese merchant ships, with the help of both pirate and Shogunal captains, the Dutch and Portuguese presence in Kerala was successfully fought and vanished by the 1680s, and most of Kerala had been unified under the rule of Travancore.
The 1680s would nevertheless see increased fighting between Travancore and the northern Kingdom of Mysore, which was at the time the dominant power of Southern India after the fall of the Vijayanagara Empire in the mid-1600s.
The Travancore-Mysore wars, which took place over most of southern India and most of the decades of the 1680s and 1690s, were renowned not only because of the geo-political importance of the outcome, but for the involvement of foreign powers such as the English and Dutch East India companies and Japan, which acted through mercenaries, exiled ronin and military advisors sent to the court of the Kingdom of Travancore. The use of such diverse weapons such as Japanese and English made muskets, modern artillery, Japanese-style armor, war elephants and other arms made the series of four wars the most bloody and most technologically interesting of the time.
By 1706, both sides were exhausted and the war effort had stalled, thus forcing Mysore and Travancore to a truce, and although the rivalry between the two southern Kingdoms would continue for decades to come, the slow fall of the Mughals and the rise of the Marathas as well as the continued expansion of the English East India Company in the east would mean that further wars would have to be fought, but against different enemies.

West of the Taiheiyō

Even though the American continent might seem to have been discovered by the Spanish in the 15th century, explorations and new discoveries continued during the 17th century, incredibly enough, under the Japanese.
The necessity to find better trade routes to Acapulco and New Spain lead to an increased Japanese presence in the Taiheiyō (PacificOcean), as well as several explorations of the ocean in order to find better and faster routes to America.
During the 17th century, the Unanga-shotō (later known as the Aleutians by the Russians) and California were continuously explored, and by the 1670s, there were several Japanese outposts and footholds in the west coast of the North American continent, most of them having commercial purposes.
The territory of Alaxsaq(later known as Alexak, by the Russians), the Unanga-shotō and other territories north of California were settled due to the fur trade, although the settlements would not actually form colonies until the 18th century.
In California, on the other hand, specially around the region known as the Kimmon Kaikyō (Strait of Gold) and other settlements along the western coast of North America, the discovery of gold as well as other reasons allowed for a different kind of settlement for the Japanese, and although the Spanish that would later arrive would see the Japanese outposts as colonies, most were actually founded without the knowledge of the Shogunal government, and many were actually founded by people opposing the Japanese shogunal government or escaping the religious conflicts of the Home Islands.
At the Kimmon Kaikyō, several small trading settlements built in the 1680s eventually expanded greatly due to the influx of people escaping the Six Year war, the Wars of religion and general religious persecution. Escaped Ronins, mercenaries, ambitious merchants and businessmen wanting to operate outside of government control soon swarmed the territory after the 1690s. By the 1740s, there were several Japanese ‘colonies’ in Kita Amerika, including Buddhist and Catholic ones, some run by monks, others by traders, others by pirates, and it wouldn’t be until the mid 18th century that the Shogun would take action against the anti-government settlements, some of which had been supported and sponsored by daimyos of Nippon itself.
Nevertheless, the majority of the Japanese settlements would remain autonomous and mostly independent from Edo, except for cases such as the trade colonies of the Unanga-shotō and Nagashima (‘Long Island’, the territory north of California and west of the Unanga-Shoto), which would be under the direct administration of the Shogunate from the 1730s.
 
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Good job on sewing up what problems I had with your TL in a plausible manner. Just some small notes now.

First off, I doubt kabuki theatre would be a cultural export to Europe. It retained a low class burlesque reputation until fairly recently in Japanese history. Japanese upper and noble classes were much more fond of Noh theatre with its higher aesthetics and intellectual pretentions.

I would also gather that Japanese influences on the visual arts would have a greater impact in Europe than music and drama, much like what happened during the opening in our TL, where Japanese ukiyoe art went on to influence the French impressionists and post-impressionists. Much of music and drama were too alien to make much of an influence until the modern era. If any influence going to Europe would happen, I would expect it to be some sort of early minimalist styles. Going the other way, I expect European art to make a huge impact on Japan, particularly in drama and literature. With a very literate population in contrast to much of Europe (holding the patterns of what happened during the Tokugawa here), I expect widely published novels and plays to boom.

Also, I doubt that the religious differences in the population would lead to future gigantic wars after the first major wars in religion between Christianity and Buddhism in general. Large religious upheaval was generally followed by a sort of intercommunal peace, as the various fracticious groups worked out spheres of influence and balance. That's not to say there won't be any tension and occaisional outbreaks of violence, but I would expect calmer heads to prevail, especially after a couple generations where Christianity settles into the cultural sphere of Japan comfortably. In other words, tolerance and dialogue with other religious groups, as preserving the larger group dynamic is more important in the long run as a cultural value. No doubt native Japanese Christian sects and Japanese priests within the Catholic church would understand that more than foreign missionaries.

In time expect to see weird hybrids pop up that'll piss both Christianity and Buddhism off. They did OTL after the opening, and some are still large and influencial today (Seicho no Ie, frex is a mismash of Christian Science, New Thought and Shinto).

In turn I'd expect Christianity to be overrepresented in the elite population of Japan and booming urban areas and new settlements whereas Buddhism maintains its popularity base in older cities such as Kyoto and rural areas. That's not to say it'll be exclusive in anywhere. I'd expect once things settle down that you'll be able to find at least one church in any part of Japan, but merely a matter of concentrations. Also I'd expect fundamentalist and other high tension groups of whatever stripe to break loose and settle far away from the central authority.

As you notice, I don't say much on military matters. Not my area of expertise. I'll leave others to pick that bone.
 

maverick

Banned
Oh, Kabuki does not become popular through Europe, just at the court of Louis XIV, until he dies, that is...

Secondly, you have a point with the wars of religion...but tell me, do you really think that the Thirty Years wars was about religion? ;)at first maybe, but once you've got the french supporing the protestants, you notice that religion is but an excuse...and that's what I needed. You see, without the authoritarian government of the Tokugawa, the Date are unable to keep the rivalring Daimyos from fighting each other endlessly, religion is but one major cause.

And you've got a point about the art, but as you can see, I'm not much of an expert on cultural matters...I'll see what I can do, though...

But now that you mention literature making a big impact on Japan, I've been looking for a way of spreading republicanism and liberalism through Nippon, how about Rosseau and the others' books being distributed by the French and dutch merchants?
 
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