WI: Battle of Dogger Bank 1914?

[EnglishCanuck]

From what I understand OTL when the Germans went out to carry out their terror raids on Scarborough, Hartlepool and Whitby, there was a good chance for the High Seas Fleet and the Grand Fleet to meet at Dogger Bank, however, unlike at Jutland two years later, the two fleets were much more evenly matched.

What would the result of a general engagement at Dogger Bank in 1914 be? Would the Germans have been able to win a battle which might lessen the effect of the blockade and damage the reputation of the British fleet? What might the effects on long term naval strategy be?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

From what I understand OTL when the Germans went out to carry out their terror raids on Scarborough, Hartlepool and Whitby, there was a good chance for the High Seas Fleet and the Grand Fleet to meet at Dogger Bank, however, unlike at Jutland two years later, the two fleets were much more evenly matched.

What would the result of a general engagement at Dogger Bank in 1914 be? Would the Germans have been able to win a battle which might lessen the effect of the blockade and damage the reputation of the British fleet? What might the effects on long term naval strategy be?

Are they closely evenly matched even in 1914?

The British certainly have all of their 13.5" Dreadnought Battleships in commission by Dogger (so about 13 odd) + 10 12" Battleships as well as all 9 Battlecruisers as well as possibly one or 2 strays (HMS Agincourt etc)

The HSF has 13-17 Dreadnought Battleships (depending on when this Dogger bank battle takes place) and 5 Battlecruisers and none of these ships with a main armament over 12"

Germany has 22 vs 34 odd and is seriously out gunned

To your question - the HSF would try to isolate a smaller part of the GF - this as in most cases would fail and the HSF would at the first sniff of the major part of the Grand Fleet run for home because to take on the main British fleet is folly.

The HSF would not be able to win as they would not try

The Status quo would be maintained as would the blockade and the Royal Navy's reputation.

 

[yulzari]

IIRC (and my father was a fisherman there at one time) at low tide some of any sunken larger ships would poke up out of the water. Any ship settling by one end would touch bottom with the deeper end well before the other sank.

 

[Saphroneth]

Whenever the Germans tried to face the British on something like even terms, they had to bring along 11" gunned and 18 knot dreadnought and pre-dreadnought ships to back up their 12" and 21 knot dreadnought ships. The British had the luxury of using 12" and 21 knot dreadnoughts to back up their 13.5", 15" and sometimes 25 knot dreadnoughts.

And with that, the Germans still tended to be outnumbered.

 

[naraic]

Am I right in saying that British ammo in 1914 was better than in Jutland since they were using prewar stocks rather than the flawed production methods used during the war

 

[Saphroneth]

Am I right in saying that British ammo in 1914 was better than in Jutland since they were using prewar stocks rather than the flawed production methods used during the war

Yes, that's my understanding as well. The shell crisis had wide-reaching effects.

 

[Driftless]

Perhaps a topic for a follow-on thread: who builds what in the aftermath?

 

[Saphroneth]

Perhaps a topic for a follow-on thread: who builds what in the aftermath?

Good question, actually - IIRC two of the major conclusions to come out of Jutland were "deck armour is important" (correct) and "light shells are not a disadvantage" (false, as it happens - led the Brits up a blind alley for a bit).

Here, I think it likely the first will still happen, the second will not (because IIRC the British hadn't relaxed their cordite handling procedures yet - correct me if that's wrong - and the BCs are less likely to go up like firecrackers if only because they get hit less).

What other conclusions could be drawn from this battle?

 

[Driftless]

Good question, actually - IIRC two of the major conclusions to come out of Jutland were "deck armour is important" (correct) and "light shells are not a disadvantage" (false, as it happens - led the Brits up a blind alley for a bit).

Here, I think it likely the first will still happen, the second will not (because IIRC the British hadn't relaxed their cordite handling procedures yet - correct me if that's wrong - and the BCs are less likely to go up like firecrackers if only because they get hit less).

What other conclusions could be drawn from this battle?

Some of the wild cards that could impact both the outcome and the lessons-learned: time of day/weather and the effect on visibility, any role of lighter vessels and torpedo attacks, and position compared to home - pressing home an attack vs running for home?

Would this put the Armored Cruiser, out to the "back-forty" of naval use - for both sides? Maybe the same for the lightly armored early British Battlecruisers? More of a push to bring the fast battleships on line?

 

[johnboy]

Whenever the Germans tried to face the British on something like even terms, they had to bring along 11" gunned and 18 knot dreadnought and pre-dreadnought ships to back up their 12" and 21 knot dreadnought ships. The British had the luxury of using 12" and 21 knot dreadnoughts to back up their 13.5", 15" and sometimes 25 knot dreadnoughts.

And with that, the Germans still tended to be outnumbered.

It is correct that the Germans in late 1914 would have as many as ten pre dreads with the fleet. Of course, the British had up to 15 in the Channel fleet, all superior to the German ships in the KEVII Class, Duncans, Lord Nelsons etc. Plus the RN had a huge number of armoured cruisers.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

So the impression I get is that had the High Seas Fleet been caught by Grand Fleet in 1914 while trying to carry out their historic raids, the Grand Fleet would have eaten them for breakfast?

 

[Driftless]

The German ships were pretty durable. As a generality, ton for ton, didn't the Germans commit less resource to fuel storage & accomodation, than the comparable British ships? IF both sides squared off, they would hammer each other pretty well, I'd think. Still, the British would be in better shape to rebound after such a slugfest - more ships going into the battle and more ships in construction the day afterwards(i.e. Queen Elizabeths)

 

[Perky50]

ship count, based on a full RN effort at the time of the Scarborough Raid:
RN Battleships = Total to sail = 19
13.5" - 12 total - Thunderer in refit, not sure on Erin's whereabouts, so say 10 available to sail
12" - 10 total - unsure on refits, say one is in refit, so say 9 available to sail
RN Battle Cruisers = total to sail =4
13.5" - 4 total - Princess Royal in Caribbean (re: von Spee)
3 available to sail
12" - 6 total - 2 in South Atlantic (re: von Spee), 1 in Pacific, 2 in refit
1 available to sail

Armoured cruisers: Most of the big ones still on overseas duty
4 County type ... under Packenham
4 x County type other squadron (cant find my file to verify)

pre-dreadnoughts
3rd Battle squadron
8 x King Edwards, 2 x Duncan

Potential RN for December 1914 Dogger Bank:
19 x BB
4 x BC
8 x CA
say 12 x CL
up to 80 DD

---0---
High Seas Fleet
Battleships = 14
12" BB = 10
1 x Konig, 5 x Kaiser, 4 x Helgoland
11" BB = 4
4 x Nassau
*** possibility of one more Konig

Battle cruisers = 4
12" BC = 1
Derfflinger
11" BC = 3
Seydlitz, Moltke, vonn der Tann

Old Battleships =8

Armoured Cruisers =3
Large CA =1
Blucher
older CA =2
Roon and Prinz Adalbert(?)

High Seas Fleet sailing
14 x BB
4 x BC
3 x CA
up to a dozen CL
75 tb

Raw numbers show a decided advantage to RN, however there are other things to take into consideration. British 12" BB are not the greatest.Poor protection, combined with poor damage control at that time, doesn't help survivability. HMS Neptune is somewhat of an exception to this rule. A good number of these designs were over loaded. Dreadnought herself, along with the Bellerophons and St.Vincents had the bulk of their belts submerged due to this.

In 13.5" gunned ships, they are overall much better. Still not up to the German level, but more than likely to defeat a lot of the 11" shells ... at least, they will have a harder time. Orions and KGV are the lower end of the strata, While Erin and in particular Iron Dukes a very noticeable cut above ... they should stand up rather well in a punch up. These ships should do quite well in any meeting with the High Seas Fleet, and their heavier shells, even if not properly penetrating, will be hard on the High Seas Fleet. . The Germans didn't like them at Jutland, and they're not likely to do much better here.

Other than if the German BC's catch them, or something stupid happens (re: Arbuthnot at jutland), the CA's should do not too bad ... just keep them away from the Big Boys. in normal scrapping they can take a good beating and survive, just don't offer yourself up to a battle line at under 10,000 yard range.

---0---

As to the High Seas Fleet, the Konig's are best in class, and Kaiser's not far behind ... Kaiser losses some advantage with having wing turrets, but still fine ships.

Oldenburgs are a bit more of a challenge, however, they are still up to standard. Their big issues are reciprocating machinery and four wing turrets, but they will still give a good account of themselves.

Nassau's are somewhat more limited, slower and with 11" main batteries, along with those cluster of wing turrets. But what the hell, all around quite a bit better than the Dreadnought design , and at least marginally better than the Neptunes all things considered.

The German battle cruisers are great ships, Derfflinger herself is in MHO one of the best designs of the period, other than 12" battery.

the remaining trio are good ships too.
vonn der Tann is the worst, and that is still not a bad place to be ...
roughly comparable to the Lions when comparing armour and such although a somewhat better layout of protection
Moltke : armour better than most old British Battleships, and better than the British designs of BC
Seydlitz:a very good design as well at least as good as Moltke

as to Blucher, well she's a good ship given the circumstances ... although she's a bit like a teenager at a baby shower ...the kids are too young for Blucher to play with, and the adults won't give Blucher a beer ...

These three battle cruisers only real failing was their 11" main battery. No big issue against British BC's, however they won't be as effective against RN BB , particularly newer ones.

the High Seas Fleet had a much better grip on damage control and other preventative measures such as ... ahem ... AMMUNITION HANDLING ... (sputter , cough)

The British shells at this point will be better as they are from pre-war stocks, the powder will probably be somewhat more stable as well. British handling and safety procedures will still not be quite up to snuff, as it had become lax when Callaghan commanded the Home fleet before Jellicoe .... the whole thought process started under Callaghan, Jellicoe was the Gunnery/ranging critter, he would tone it back somewhat after he took over the Grand fleet, while Beatty would take it to a whole new level with the battle cruisers, particularly after Dogger Bank.

German signalling was better, up until 1916 , British start catching up after Jutland.

Germans had better sighting equipments, however it was harder on the operators. they could target quicker, however the
RN system would apparently hold target better once on.

German had better night fighting systems, better 'artificial fog'

IMHO , I give the advantage in light craft to the RN ... nothing really wrong with the Germans, its just the British ones are bigger and more numerous.

Torpedoes, well a lot seem to favour the German ones, however at Jutland, they put one into Marlborough and she made it home ... even held in the battle line for a while after the hit. Imho, the secret to the RN somewhat better success with the torpedoes was that the bigger size of the British DD's, along with a more aggressive (if haphazard) deployment, worked in the RN's favour. They lost more, however they got a better result.

the British managed a few hits ... don't have the numbers and I.D's handy, but at least two of the BC's and one of the old B's... and the old B went up after eating one.


... okay ... sorry for the rambling ... so what happens in a 1914 encounter?


probably not much more than what happened OTL.


the trick for the most part will be if the British are heavily outnumbered , they'll bug out in all likelihood ... Beatty might be a bit of a crapshoot on that

The HSF did not want to fight the whole Grand Fleet (understandable ... no real point to doing that) The only way that will happen is for Jellicoe to cut them off from home in pristine weather conditions ... fat chance of that happening in the North Sea.

Scarborough in 12/16 ... All admiral Ingenohl encountered was a few destroyers, and took them to be the van of the Grand Fleet ... He went home, didn't even tell Hipper ... just left. It is easy to ponder over what might have happened that day if it had carried on into a scrap ... wouldn't likely have been good for the RN, however, they would have made due.

The Germans had convinced themselves that they couldn't meet the full Grand Fleet, right or wrong. Ingenohl's choice of Scarborough sets that out, and both Hipper's choice at Dogger Bank , and Scheer at Jutland drives it home.

The truth of the matter is that for either side to get to the advantageous position that they desired, they would need much better scouting and communications than were available at that time.

... if they do meet somehow, they will each lose a few ships ... probably with the RN losing more than the HSF ...

When they are done their donnybrook , they go home .... the HSF takes a poke every now and then, but the RN will still own the mud puddle.

You know, I think the point that is often missed in all this is that neither side really wants to see a big chunk of their naval budget for the past umpteen years sitting on the bottom of the North Sea, and for the most part, even if they manage to do it to the other critter, by default, the same sort of thing will be delivered up on themselves.

It's easy as a spectator/commentator/ armchair tactician to sit here and imagine just what might have been. Realistically though, out of all the useless losses in World War 1, the biggest saving grace might possibly be that these two fleets never quite found the will or the way to beat each other senseless.
Some might say 'what a waste of resources', and they might be right, for nothing really changed.

But think of it this way, what if they did meet in a proper set piece battle, pounded the holly hell out of each other...

Some might say 'what a waste' and they would likely be right, for nothing would have changed in this option either .... other than a hell of a lot of sailor men not going home.

... damn ... I can prattle some times ...
have yourselves a great rest of the week!

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Whenever the Germans tried to face the British on something like even terms, they had to bring along 11" gunned and 18 knot dreadnought and pre-dreadnought ships to back up their 12" and 21 knot dreadnought ships. The British had the luxury of using 12" and 21 knot dreadnoughts to back up their 13.5", 15" and sometimes 25 knot dreadnoughts.

And with that, the Germans still tended to be outnumbered.

The Germans were even more outnumbered than that, because up to a few weeks before Jutland the Grand Fleet included the 3rd Battle Squadron, which had the most modern pre-dreadnoughts. IIRC 3BS with Dreadnought as its flagship was detached to Sheerness or Chatham to protect the southern end of the east coast from German raids.

 

[historyfool]

The way I read the OP English Canuck is asking about what happened if the Scarborough raid actually resulted in a naval battle. OTL Ingenohls caution (or the Kaisers orders) meant that the two forces did miss each other, but that day the HSF had a huge local superiority the only time (I believe) in the war. The British learned that something was coming, but thought it was only a BC raid. Thus they sent out the 2nd battle squadron, 1st battle cruiser squadron and 3rd cruiser squadron. Screening forces were the 1st light cruiser squadron. The only available reinforcements within reach of a potential battle would have been Harwich force.
And that force would have met most of the HSF in battle. So 14 DNs, 8 PDNs, 4 BCs and 3 ACs against 6 DNs, 4 BCs and 4 ACs. Light forces are also outnumbered on the British side. The difficult part is for the RN forces to be forced to battle. But if Ingenohl had been (allowed to be) more agressive the weaknesses of the British commanders might have allowed just that. Warrender was at times considered to lack initiative of his own and became more and more deaf, Beatty was well Beatty.

A battle, even one where the British fail to disengage without significant losses would not really be decisive, but it would have huge consequences. Leadership on the British side would change. Whether Jellicoe remains after he protested to detach part of his fleet I am not sure. Others would certainly get some of the blame too. Strategy and tactics on the British side likely would also change, but I have no idea how. The German navy might start to become more agressive, to use the temporary position of strenghth, but might suffer losses in turn they can not afford. Unrestricted submarine warfare might not be an issue until later than otl though which would mean better relations wih the US.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Here is a earlier thread on the Scarbourgh Raid & alternative outcome. The weather & visibility are a large variable in potential outcomes.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=304615

 

[Saphroneth]

Well, when it's "huge local superiority" what it actually means is "the two sides have roughly broadsides and the RN has superior speed".

It's basically the most modern RN units versus a large chunk of the HSF... and I think it's a little over-egging it to say "huge" superiority. Superiority is there, yes.

 

[historyfool]

Well, when it's "huge local superiority" what it actually means is "the two sides have roughly broadsides and the RN has superior speed".

It's basically the most modern RN units versus a large chunk of the HSF... and I think it's a little over-egging it to say "huge" superiority. Superiority is there, yes.

When the superiority in modern capital units and light cruisers is almost 2:1 and until the Harwich Force (which at 6:30 was off Yarmouth, quite a bit away) arrives the superiorty of destroyers/torpedo boats is more than 10:1 I think one safely call it huge local superiority. The RN can in theory steam away if it quickly enough realizes what it faces, but Jellicoe for instance believed that at least Beatty would not have done so fast enough. Couple of other interesting facts: Weather was bad most of December 16, increasing the chance that Warrender/ Beatty realize slowly what they face. At the time contact was most likely the RN forces were roughly north of the German battle fleet and south of the German BCs. Beatty otl messed up his communications as so often, making the turn towards the HSF half an hour later than Warrender. Thus it is not only possible that the RN could have been unable to avoid combat completely, but also to have been engaged piecemeal.

 

[Archibald]

Perky50: very interesting post. I wonder why did the Germans stuck so long to the 11" gun while the RH moved to 12", then 13.5", then 15" ?

 

[steamboy]

Perky50: very interesting post. I wonder why did the Germans stuck so long to the 11" gun while the RH moved to 12", then 13.5", then 15" ?

Design preference, the Germans preferred spending the weight on the guns (and then associated turrets and ammo etc) on protection.