WI Guam

[Hyperion]

There was a buildup on Guam Wake Midway Phillipinnes, prewar, except it started to late.
?I am wondering if a big build up pre 1941 will change the Japanese plans for Pearl?

At this point, I don't see Pearl being butterflied away.

At this point, I see the two destroyers and sub tender being moved when war gets closer. Having two submarines on station, if only for a short time, could be of help. Not enough to stop the fall of Guam, but enough to make it more costly.

The big difference will be ground troops. In OTL, the Japanese hit Guam with over 5,000 troops, mostly from the elite South Seas Force, which played a key role in a number of other operations early on, at Wake, Rabaul, New Guinea, etc.

Here, Guam could still fall, but this Japanese army unit could find itself being gutted in the process. Not a war winning deal, but enough to slow the Japanese a bit.

 

[Riain]

The thing that annoys me most about the IJN campaign of early WW2 is that hey suffered bugger-all losses, if you postulated it on this board you'd have a dozen people screeching "ASB" at the merest suggestion. If you can sink a cruiser and shoot down a dozen planes then Guam has done it's job as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Satrap]

If memory serves the Japanese committed significant resources to taking Guam and not enought to Wake (2nd team at that, according to some commentators).

If this holds true in this scenario, Guam would hold out longer & inflict more damage, but would still be isolated without hope of relief.

 

[Gridley]

The thing that annoys me most about the IJN campaign of early WW2 is that hey suffered bugger-all losses, if you postulated it on this board you'd have a dozen people screeching "ASB" at the merest suggestion. If you can sink a cruiser and shoot down a dozen planes then Guam has done it's job as far as I'm concerned.

Actually, even Wake drew some blood. Not a LOT, but some.

The Wake defenders sank the first two IJN warships to be lost during the war, damaged or destroyed a number of others and some transports, shot down eight aircraft, and inflicted 2,000 casualties despite having less than 500 military personnel themselves.

 

[Bearcat]

One of the keys to remember here is that the second Wake invasion required help from Kido Butai AND Goto's heavy cruiser force that had supported the Guam invasion.

So what happens if Guam beats off the first attack too, or if the issue is still in doubt there several days later? Maybe Goto loses a ship and another damaged even?

Now, there is no question about a second Wake attempt. The IJn has more urgent fish to fry. So any reinforcements have to go to winning at Guam, in order to hold the Marianas and shield the Home Islands.

In the meantime, the reinforcement of Wake moves forward.

Eventually, the IJA probably subdues Guam. Not enough has changed here to hold it.

But Wake is now much like Midway IOTL - a very tough nut to crack. Much of the Japanese SNLF has been gutted in the first wave at Guam.

But leaving Wake in American hands quickly throws problems into the whole IJN barrier strategy.

After some posturing, the USN moves ahead with something like Doolittle.

Now the IJN is pissed, and the emperor disappointed. Yamamoto resolves to bring the US carriers to battle. He does not know the Americans are reading his codes.

And so Kido Butai sets out, with most of the IJN supporting, to take the island of Wake, and force the US to sortie its carriers, to their destruction...

While the US masses what little it has, prepared to give Nagumo a hot reception...

 

[Paul V McNutt]

There are going to be some interesting complications ITTl.

 

[kent]

One of the keys to remember here is that the second Wake invasion required help from Kido Butai AND Goto's heavy cruiser force that had supported the Guam invasion.

So what happens if Guam beats off the first attack too, or if the issue is still in doubt there several days later? Maybe Goto loses a ship and another damaged even?

Now, there is no question about a second Wake attempt. The IJn has more urgent fish to fry. So any reinforcements have to go to winning at Guam, in order to hold the Marianas and shield the Home Islands.

In the meantime, the reinforcement of Wake moves forward.

Eventually, the IJA probably subdues Guam. Not enough has changed here to hold it.

But Wake is now much like Midway IOTL - a very tough nut to crack. Much of the Japanese SNLF has been gutted in the first wave at Guam.

But leaving Wake in American hands quickly throws problems into the whole IJN barrier strategy.

After some posturing, the USN moves ahead with something like Doolittle.

Now the IJN is pissed, and the emperor disappointed. Yamamoto resolves to bring the US carriers to battle. He does not know the Americans are reading his codes.

And so Kido Butai sets out, with most of the IJN supporting, to take the island of Wake, and force the US to sortie its carriers, to their destruction...

While the US masses what little it has, prepared to give Nagumo a hot reception...

Not fair!!!! Did you read my mind???? I'll try to make the story worth while.

 

[Riain]

Actually, even Wake drew some blood. Not a LOT, but some.

The Wake defenders sank the first two IJN warships to be lost during the war, damaged or destroyed a number of others and some transports, shot down eight aircraft, and inflicted 2,000 casualties despite having less than 500 military personnel themselves.

Exactly! Little Wake, with a few obsolescent 5" guns, a 1/3 of a Wildcat sqn and half a btn did more to the Japanese than the entire RN effort of 2 capital ships, 2 cruisers and a dozen destroyers, let alone the 130,000 strong army in Malaya.

 

[DuQuense]

Protection

http://www.instructables.com/id/Aluminum-Foil-Hat/

 

[kent]

Paradise Upset​

　
At the normal Friday, staff meeting, (February 7th 1941) , Brad was brought up to date on the improvements ongoing at the Piti Naval Yard. Also updated was the status of the completed airfield at Barrigada and the road connecting it to both the navy yard and Agana. The engineers reported that work was underway to improve the trail to the village of Lupog into a road and that work would be able to be started on the second airfield by mid March.

PBY over flights of the Guamanian fishing fleet along with having the Destroyers or the mine sweeper providing an escort now and then had all but stopped the harassment by the Japanese towards the Island fishing boats. The Civil Guard had reported that Chamorros from Saipan had been attempting to land on the south end of the Island by Cosos Lagoon . They had told the guard that they had “lost their way” They were given food and water and they put back to sea heading for Saipan. It was decided that one of the Marine Companies would move to the south end of the Island and that it would cover the Cosos Lagoon area and Mount Lamlam which at 406 feet was the highest point on the Island. That Company would be stationed in Merizo, quarters and supply points would have to be built. Ben then advised his staff that with the airfield in operation the Army planned to start using it right away for ferrying B-17s to the Philippines. All fighters station here will be armed and ready for combat at all times.

Brad then brought to everyone’s attention that the mayors of the several villages and towns had been voicing concern about the lack of respect shown the native Chamorro girls and that he wanted that stopped right now. These are a very Catholic people treat them with respect. Remind your troops that this is a territory of the United States and those folks are us.

 

[kent]

New Equipment
​

Valentines day, 1941 the navy seaplane tender USS Curtiss, lay at anchor in Agana Bay off loading
10 new P-40 Fighters and equipment. The 10 P-36’s were to be crated and sent on the next supply ship to the Philippines. Capitan Walker and his pilots and ground support staff were all very happy with this change as the P-40 was faster and better armed with 50cal guns not the little 30cal. Also being off loaded along with it’s assigned crew and supplies was a SCR-270 radar that would be moved to Mt Lamlan. Phone lines would have to be installed to connect the radar crew with the airstrip and also with the Marines stationed at Merizo. No one but the crew of the radar knew anything about radar, it’s capabilities and liabilities. Lots of training was in store for both the crew of the radar and the pilots assigned to Guam with their new equipment.

Additionally the security group sent to Howland Island had been removed and had reassigned with two more quad 50’s to the Island. That gave Capitan Smart a full company of negro security troops. He planed that once the second airfield was competed to split his force between the two airfields.

Capitan Jones had requested that more training bombs as well as some of the 500lb armor piercing bombs be sent from Hawaii so that his crews could get more training. At that time he had only 100lb and 250lb general purpose bombs.

The Major in charge of his three Marine companies wanted to know if Pear Harbor could or would send them any coastal defense guns, 5 or 6 inch. Brad advised him he would request them but did not know if they would be sent. There was no artillery assigned to Guam other than the puny guns on the M-3 tanks.
The Marines were worried that with no artillery of their own any (Japanese) force with artillery would
have no trouble taking Guam.

The Capitan of the Curtiss had let him know that the cable laying ship from Pearl was about 500 miles from Guam. That meant then in about two weeks he would have teletype and phone communication with Hawaii.
　

 

[Hyperion]

Not a lot of equipment, but even with a few months to go before the party begins, this should give the various units time to have practice with the new equipment and get some of the bugs worked out.

Any chance of adding a second fighter squadron to the island at any point before December 7th, be it another army unit, or a navy or marine squardon?

 

[Cash]

So it looks like the fighters will have a chance to practice coordinating with the radar crews before 12/7. That and 500-pound AP bombs could make a huge difference.

BTW, Guam is large enough and jungled enough to allow survivors of a Japanese invasion to fade back into the bush and carry on a guerrilla conflict. (IIRC the last Japanese holdout on Guam didn't surrender until 1972.) Does that figure in Brad's plans yet?

 

[kent]

Not a lot of equipment, but even with a few months to go before the party begins, this should give the various units time to have practice with the new equipment and get some of the bugs worked out.

Any chance of adding a second fighter squadron to the island at any point before December 7th, be it another army unit, or a navy or marine squardon?

Maybe in July or August either Marine or Army fighters for the second airstrip.

 

[kent]

So it looks like the fighters will have a chance to practice coordinating with the radar crews before 12/7. That and 500-pound AP bombs could make a huge difference.

BTW, Guam is large enough and jungled enough to allow survivors of a Japanese invasion to fade back into the bush and carry on a guerrilla conflict. (IIRC the last Japanese holdout on Guam didn't surrender until 1972.) Does that figure in Brad's plans yet?

Not planning any Guerrilla type fight as of yet.
Good catch about coordinating radar to fighters. I plan to have the Army see that the radar unit needs a radio to do just that. Maybe by having an officer assigned there who had seen some of the air battles over England.

 

[kent]

Training and Movement​

By July the second airfield at Lupog was competed and another squadron of 10 Army P-40s with support staff and equipment had arrived at Guam on the monthly supply ship from Pearl. This made Guam one of the strongest fighter bases after Hawaii that the United States had in the Central Pacific. Also being reinforced were 4 more PBYs for the scouting mission between Guam and both Hawaii and the Philippines.

New additions to the A-20 Dive Bombers were 5 more aircraft, crews and Lt Col. Nash, who would command all the Army Air Corps units. Lt. Col Nash requested right away that a radio be set up at the radar unit so that training and coordination between the radar operators and his aircraft could begin. He had seen during his assignment to England during the summer and fall of 1940, how the English used radar to vector fighters towards the German bombers and give warning of raids.

Both the S-41 and S-43 had during the last two months reported major Japanese troop and ship movements in around both Saipan and Tinian. It appeared that Japan had reinforced Saipan with up to 6000 special naval infantry and three heavy cruisers had been sighted. Once again as the military commander of Guam Brad asked that artillery of either costal defense or towed cannons such as 105mm be assigned to the Island.

It now appeared that the Pacific Fleet would move to Pearl Harbor. That would make his scouting units more important but both of his subs the S-41 and S-43 needed major yard work that the tender could not accomplish so it was possible that unless they were moved back to Pearl for overhaul and replaced by other boats he might lose his best scouts for around Saipan waters.

　

 

[Cash]

Also being reinforced were 4 more PBYs for the scouting mission between Guam and both Hawaii and the Philippines.

With all these PBYs scouting the territory around Guam between Hawaii and the Philippines, is there a chance that they will sight the Japanese carriers as they approach Pearl Harbor?

 

[Dave in St. Louis]

You Fail History

With all these PBYs scouting the territory around Guam between Hawaii and the Philippines, is there a chance that they will sight the Japanese carriers as they approach Pearl Harbor?

Kido Butai took a path about halfway between Wake/Midway and the Aleutians - aka a Northern Route.

 

[NHBL]

Interesting--and American submarine bonus...

I like this--it's got me interested for sure.

When the war breaks out, having the old S-boats instead of modern fleet boats will be a good thing indeed. S-boats used the older, Great War vintage Mark 10 torpedoes, instead of the Mark 14 that the newer Fleet boats used. The Mark 10 torpedo was inferior to the Mark 14 in many ways, but had one big thing going for it: It EXPLODED when it hit something.

Nice stuff--keep it going!

 

[Bearcat]

I like this--it's got me interested for sure.

When the war breaks out, having the old S-boats instead of modern fleet boats will be a good thing indeed. S-boats used the older, Great War vintage Mark 10 torpedoes, instead of the Mark 14 that the newer Fleet boats used. The Mark 10 torpedo was inferior to the Mark 14 in many ways, but had one big thing going for it: It EXPLODED when it hit something.

Nice stuff--keep it going!

Yeah but the old S Boats were already in use in the PI. Read about their record there. they sunk a couple of ships but not much more.

The torpedoes were only one facet of the 12/41 unreadiness: sub doctrine was fatally flawed (sub commanders could be court-martialed for raising a periscope near the enemy, they were somehow supposed to get hits based purely on sonar). Commanders were trained to be cautious above all else, and unfortunately that means a lot of them couldn't accomplish much of anything.

Also the S-boats were prehistoric. Not so much old really, as just aging and worn out. Too small for good habitability and for open ocean fleet work. And too slow.

Even with the awful early Mark 14s, the new fleet boats were better. After all, at least you could achieve a firing position, and even the flawed torpedoes detonated a small percentage of the time (I've heard numbers bandied anywhere from 10% to 33%, depending on how you define a good result).