No Terror of Justinian - Glory Instead! (The Roman Emperor Who Lost His Nose - A TL of Justinian II)

A bit thick but it is appealing. I do admire the whole bit about how a message started covertly makes it all the way to Constantinople even as the struggle for Iberia commences. It did take me a moment to realize that Julian is playing both sides of the fence even with his tenuous alliance with Tariq being the more successful of his ventures. From the text, I'm assuming that there is actually no connection between the Caliph and Tariq...which makes the future reaction by the former a bit more risky dependent on what he does (the Caliph).
 

Sargon

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A bit thick but it is appealing. I do admire the whole bit about how a message started covertly makes it all the way to Constantinople even as the struggle for Iberia commences. It did take me a moment to realize that Julian is playing both sides of the fence even with his tenuous alliance with Tariq being the more successful of his ventures. From the text, I'm assuming that there is actually no connection between the Caliph and Tariq...which makes the future reaction by the former a bit more risky dependent on what he does (the Caliph).


Thanks for that, and glad you are finding it interesting too. :)

Julian was a complex character. Even to this day we are not quite sure of his motivations and allegiances.

The Caliph has plans to move into Iberia, but here the moves have not yet been sanctioned by him officially, and he doesn't know a potential war with the Romans is in the offing.


Sargon
 

Sargon

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By the way, there is a run off poll for the Turtledoves as no one secured 50% of the vote in the first round, so please vote here if you'd like to see this story win. ;)

Many thanks.


Sargon
 

Sargon

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Thanks to all those who voted and helped this story to win in the Medieval Category! I really appreciate all your support! :)

This year, Glen has started a new poll called the Superlative Turtledove Award where all the winners from various AH categories face off against each other to find the Best of the Best TL.

This story is in the running, and I'd be very grateful if you could vote for it here for the Best TL.

Thanks for your continued support, and now I'll get back to work on the next part which is already started. ;)


Sargo'
 
Thanks to all those who voted and helped this story to win in the Medieval Category! I really appreciate all your support! :)

This year, Glen has started a new poll called the Superlative Turtledove Award where all the winners from various AH categories face off against each other to find the Best of the Best TL.

This story is in the running, and I'd be very grateful if you could vote for it here for the Best TL.

Thanks for your continued support, and now I'll get back to work on the next part which is already started. ;)


Sargo'

The only reason I didn't vote for this is 'cause it's not complete enough. Well, that and the totally awesome competition you're up against! I really, really want to see more of this!
 

Sargon

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Looking forward to more!

Lots more will come. ;)

Sargon u got my vote for sure this TL is amazing

Thanks a lot for that Cap'n. Glad you are liking it, and thanks for the support! :)

The only reason I didn't vote for this is 'cause it's not complete enough. Well, that and the totally awesome competition you're up against! I really, really want to see more of this!

Glad you are enjoying it too. Well, if you are waiting for this to be complete, it could be years. :p I plan to take this one for a long time into the future, so there's much more to come.

Yes, excellent and very worthy competition indeed, yet hopefully, with the support of everyone who likes this TL, we can give Justinian a good shot at victory once more. ;)


Sargon
 

Sargon

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OK folks, the final vote of all is here. If you like this story and wish to support it, head here and lend it your support.

Justinian and Myakes need you to help them gain a great Byzantine Victory. ;)

Next chapter is being worked on.


Sargon
 
Part X: The Mists of Toledo

Sargon

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Part X

The Roman Emperor Who Lost His Nose

A timeline of Justinian II - The Magnificent Rhinotmetos

Part X: The Mists of Toledo

"Wars are seldom easy affairs. Messy and full of woe, yet men fight them still. The lure of glory or the fear of defeat convinces many they cannot be on the losing side or expect to lose their life that day. Reality, however, often has other plans.", Michael Tsirpas, Roman General & Historian*

710 – Summer Theophilos had no way of knowing if his message had reached the Emperor. Philippicus had indeed made it back to the courtyard briefly and made a sign to indicate that he had passed the message on to the ship captain Theophilos trusted, yet for all he knew, his ships could have been caught up in a storm or been intercepted by pirates – he really couldn’t be sure. With this in mind he had set about penning other missives, this time for Stephen who he still thought was in the Balearics, as well as the Commander of Roman forces staged in Sicily. Yet now John had left with his ship, Theophilos knew precious few people he could trust enough to carry the messages to their respective destinations. He knew another trading captain, but he was not entirely sure of his loyalties, given that he was half Visigoth. There was also the additional problem that it was no longer easy for Philippicus to get into the courtyard and take messages without being seen. Rather worryingly, one of the guards had found that it was a rather nice place to slope off to and avoid being disturbed in. He’d even set himself up a small chair in the shade there, and as Theophilos squeezed his head through the tiny privy window once more, he could make the soldier out, happily stretching out his legs and dozing off cool in the shade offered by the shadows in that corner, and protected by the oppressive heat of the afternoon. The Prōtospatharios could do little but wait until such time as the guard decided to leave and hope that Philippicus arrived at such a time as well.


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In Spain, Julian was spoiling for another battle. He was certain the next encounter would see the end of Roderic’s army, and his subsequent fall. The combined Arab and Visigothic army could now field almost 22,000 troops as more local nobles and militia had joined up with Julian. Musa was gathering reinforcements and was planning to be ready to sail with them ostensibly in case they were needed, but also had his own motives for wanting to get across to Spain and secure a piece of the pie for the Caliphate before Julian felt he didn’t need any more support. Yet Julian was eager to finish the campaign off before more Berbers and Arabs arrived in his beloved land as he suspected that Musa may have his own designs in Spain, and was encouraging Tariq to engage Roderic as soon as they could, his argument being that it was the best time to strike as Roderic’s army was reeling from their previous defeat and would be hard pressed to put up a good defence so soon after such a disaster. For his part Tariq saw the logic of Julian’s plan, and being a honourable man, wished to keep to his side of the bargain. Besides, his troops were eager for more plunder to be gained from fallen members of Roderic’s army, and he did not wish to disappoint them.

If they knew that 6,000 well trained Roman troops were holding battle exercises at Toledo with Roderic’s revitalised troops, they would have been far more concerned. Roderic had not been idle either. He had managed to gather more militia and nobles and had thus bolstered his army somewhat, and now his army had been reinforced by another 1,800 troops, bringing it up to nearly 18,000. Pelayo was on his way with his kinsmen and supporters; although it was not certain if he could catch up and join them in time for the start of the next battle. Still, with the extra 3,200 men he was bringing, it could make all the difference, even if they turned up late and could spring a surprise. Roderic, his commanders Osbert and Sisbert and the Roman commander George had drawn up their plans together, using the hoped for surprise of the Roman troops being present as a part of the strategy. Osbert hadn’t been too badly wounded by the arrow he had taken at Cordoba, his armour halting the worst of it, and thus he was hoping to gain retribution in the upcoming battle to make up for his mishap in the previous one.

It was decided to draw up to the south of the city where the terrain could be used to spring a trap. Roman troops could safely conceal themselves in the wooded areas present and there were some useful ravines to spring from. The manoeuvres involved would need some co-ordination, but it was thought they could be pulled off without too much trouble. However, it was true that much depended upon how far down the valley chosen the battle would occur as Roderic’s army would need to feign a retreat to draw the enemy forces into their trap. Thus around 11 days after Cordoba the scene was set near Toledo, and the joint Romano-Visigothic army would be able to field around 24,000 troops against the Arab, Berber and Visigothic combined force of 22,000. Both had reinforcements on their way, but Roderic’s would certainly arrive a long time before Musa’s could.

Across the water in North Africa, Musa worked fast to gather together his troops. Orders had been sent as far as Tunis to send men to beef up his army, and those had left by ship, intending to meet his men loaded upon ships at the southern Pillar of Hercules. Once the assembled host was together, they would sail across and land their forces on the shores of Iberia. Musa believed the Caliph would be most happy with events so far, yet still could quite dismiss the slight feeling of apprehension he had. His messages had been sent, but he had no idea if they had reached the Caliph yet, bearing the news of the compact agreed with Julian. He wanted to gain all possible credit for that, as well as from any gains made in Spain, and he had no intention of missing out on any rich rewards the Caliph was generous enough to bestow.

In Iberia, Julian’s eagerness to move and engage Roderic’s forces has borne fruit and his army approached the area where Roderic’s could be seen drawn up. Tariq cast his eye over Roderic’s forces and concluded that there were several thousand less present that there had been at the previous battle, whilst his forces had increased in number and had well trained soldiers compared to the bulk of Roderic’s army which was in large part made up of militia. Tariq had been careful to scout out the area so he could be sure that there were no surprises waiting. His caution proved to be of little use, however, since the Romans were positioned well away from the area, yet still close enough to rush in and make a difference if need be. Besides, their function was to spring the trap once Roderic’s troops made their feint and had drawn the enemy forces into a suitable position to spring it. The very early morning air was somewhat misty as well, and this served to further conceal the Romans, and meant that any charge from their cavalry would be more effective.

Tariq and Julian met together and made their final dispositions. Julian had been working upon improving the communication between his commanders, and the morale of his troops was high. With Julian in the centre with his heavy cavalry, Tariq held his troops on the wings as they were somewhat more mobile and could make the best use of their experience whilst Julian’s vanguard kept the opposing army busy. Now it was Julian’s turn to open the battle, and with assured aggressiveness his soldiers did so, smashing into Roderic’s centre and resulting in a spirited melee developing which looked to be going better for Julian than Roderic. Sisbert was leading the right flank and now ordered his charge, his cavalry smashing into the opposing Visigothic centre. This was soon countered by Tariq’s wing moving in and disrupting the charge, thus foiling the full effectiveness of Sisbert’s attack. For his part, Osbert had charged in from the left and had targeted Tariq’s wing on that side rather than Julian’s centre. He obviously saw them as the greater threat and no doubt wished to exact a certain amount of revenge for his humiliation at Cordoba. This took the Arabs and Berbers under Tarif ibn Malluk somewhat by surprise as they had been expecting him to attack Julian’s troops, yet they weathered the charge, despite Osbert being careful not to spread his men too thinly this time. For a while the battle raged with Roderic’s forces putting up a courageous fight, yet it was obvious their militia was over-matched by Tariq’s experienced forces. To Julian’s eye, it seemed pretty clear that he had the upper hand and was slowly forcing the opposing force back. It was then that Roderic made a signal.

Osbert and Sisbert gathered their men together, and made off as if in a disorganised retreat, whilst the centre also turned tail. Yet it was all planned. This was the feint that they hoped would spring the trap. It was very risky as it meant that at least some of Roderic’s forces would end up being run down by the pursuing enemy, yet he had more to gain than those losses if all went well.

Julian was pleased: it seemed that Roderic was in deep trouble. Tariq, although cautious, saw a repetition of what had happened at Cordoba, and decided that this opportunity could not be lost to finish off Roderick once and for all. The combined Arab and Visigothic army surged forward over the bodies of men that littered the area who had either been killed of maimed in the battle. There seemed to be considerably more of Roderic’s there than anyone else’s.

“He runs! He has not the stomach to fight. Form yourselves into order and chase him down now! He is all but finished!”, Julian exhorted his troops as they gathered themselves and bore down upon the enemy.

Tariq’s voice could also be heard amongst the roars of Julian’s men as they rushed forward, determined to eradicate Roderic’s reign once and for all. “He speaks the truth! They are at our mercy, kill them all now! Every man shall have more than his fair share of plunder once they are , driven into the ground and crushed!”, he yelled in Arabic.

With cries in a variety of languages ringing out, Julian and Tariq’s forces swarmed forward down the valley as Roderic’s troops ran as fast as they could without losing too much cohesion, but just managing to look disorganised, which was probably the case for some of the less experienced militia. Then, having reached the best point for an ambush, that had been agreed to by the Roman and Visigothic commanders, Roderic gave his orders and his troops stopped running and came together in good order, in what appeared to be a last stand to the eyes of Julian who gloated, “Look! They have not the energy to run further. They ran fast enough but it will not save them. This last act of desperation will doom them all. Press the attack!”.

Tariq’s troops were still in very good order despite the chase, but Julian’s centre, consisting mostly of militia like his opponent’s was somewhat less cohesively arranged as they bore down upon Roderic’s forces. Still, they seemed to be in a better state than those they faced, and it looked like they would roll over Roderic’s centre.

And then it happened.

From the bushes and trees, George had been patiently waiting, his commanders biding their time, and communications between them calm, experienced and orderly. As Julian and Tariq’s forces streamed past, his men readied themselves, muscles tensed, adrenaline rushing through their bodies, and if truth be told, some apprehension coursing round their veins. After all, even experienced soldiers have a healthy amount of that in them, and it serves to hone their wits and make them cautious enough to avoid too many mistakes. The mist had lifted somewhat, but not enough to stop cloaking the cavalry as they burst out of the woods on either side and the full might of the Roman Empire in Spain was unleashed upon the unsuspecting enemy.

The rumble of the Roman cavalry was barely heard as most in Julian’s army merely assumed it was Tariq’s cavalry thundering past them to engage Roderic once more. As for Tariq’s cavalry, the noise was drowned out by their own hoof beats, whilst the Romans came closer under the cover of the mist, to finally emerge charging down onto the surprised Arabs, Berbers and Visigoths. Not far behind the cavalry, the Roman infantry bore down in perfect regimented order, ready to hammer their way through anything the cavalry left behind.

Julian was aghast. “What trickery is this??”. He could barely understand what was happening as the cavalry pile-drove into the flank of his forces, catching them completely unprepared. Tariq was slightly luckier as his forces were further forward, and a large part of them were not caught up in the charge, yet his rearward formations were crashed into and were left in disarray. This of curse left the larger part of his force facing Roderic’s army who were not longer feigning disorganised retreat and were making towards Tariq’s with what could only be described as highly prejudiced intent.

Tariq wheeled his horse around and tried to rally his men. “Form up! It’s a trap!”, he cast his single eye around, glaring so much it seemed fit to fly from the socket. “Keep your wits about you. We can fight our way out of this!”. He spurred his horse and hacked his way through the Roderic’s militia. They may have been lacking experience, but they were more than making up for it now as they sensed the possibility of victory, and they were piling forward, being met by the flashing blades of the Berbers.

For his part Tarif, who as Tariq’s deputy, had been leading the other wing was just managing to hold his own against the hordes of angry Visigoths that had descended upon him and his men. His determination and skill had results, with his men managing to slash their way out of the trap and retreat before the Roman infantry arrived. No such luck for his superior Tariq, as he found lines of Romans advancing upon him and finally realised what was going on. “Romans! By the Prophet, what are they doing here??”, the surprise and shock in his voice evident. His fighting spirit was unbroken though and he continued to slice his way through the militia. Luckily, Roderic’s heavy and lethal Visigothic cavalry had not caught up with him yet, although the light horsemen of Osbert’s command were now racing in determined to carve some holes in his formation.

For Julian the penny had dropped as well, but for him the implications were even more serious. “In the Name of God, Romans! I am ruined!”, he cried out as he saw them advancing towards him, and in his mind’s eye, only directly to him personally. Had the Emperor found out about Septum already? It barely seemed possible. How could any message reach him so rapidly since he’d dealt with Theophilos? He had never expected to fight Romans, in fact this stage of his plan required that he absolutely did not. He wanted to conquer lands, and give some to the Emperor and then help him recover Septum if necessary. Now, all that seemed a dream. He wondered if there was some other reason the Romans were in Iberia. Perhaps Justinian had already arranged an alliance with them without knowing about his handover of the Imperial outpost, and the message was waiting for him back in Septum? Suddenly, he remembered Theophilos’ words and saw the truth of them. The Emperor would show him no mercy having given Septum away and not having any lands to present to him. Julian beat his breast in despair. All his plans and hopes were falling apart before his eyes. Yet inside him a spark of hope yet remained. Musa would arrive with reinforcements, and he’d be able to conquer lands once he had them. Maybe, just maybe, he could get himself out of this woeful situation. And if he couldn’t work with the Romans, then he’d have no choice but to work with the Arabs.

“Men! We shall not fight here, this ambush will destroy us. We must leave and regroup! Remember that there are vastly more men on their way to support us. We can fight another day when the odds favour our success far more.”. Glaring across the battlefield, he spotted Roderic and his bodyguard behind his centre. He was certain he was looking directly into the eyes of the usurper. “Damn you! False King! You shall not escape me. I shall make you pay for what has happened here today as God is my witness. Satan shall feast upon your stinking cadaver, I swear it!”. And with that he did his best to rally his men and make his way out of the disaster that was rapidly enveloping him.

Across the battlefield, Roderic could see Julian thrashing about him with his sword and had the odd feeling he had somehow shared eye contact with him. However, as yet, he had no idea it was Julian, just some Visigothic noble that was leading the others and desired to seize his crown. “He is brave and skilled”, said the King in an aside to one of those accompanying him. “Whoever that is out yonder, I am impressed. Yet today will not be his day. It is ours!”. He turned to his adjutants, ”Order the flanks to close in on their centre. Their wings are fleeing or vanquished and if we are quick we may yet finish the greater part of them.”. Acknowledging his instruction, the commands were relayed and Roderic watch as his wings began to close in.

From the relative safety of his horse behind the lines of infantry, Stephen watched as the enemy fought to escape. Not being too much of a general, he had left the battle in the hands of the very capable George, whose phlegmatic efficiency had essentially won them the field. He looked around at the troops arrayed around him. Some had not even reached the battle yet – the surprise of the cavalry charge had proven very effective and the first ranks of the infantry were just now hacking their way into the desperate force that still remained on the field. As he gazed down, he saw that the enemy Visigothic general had been successful in gathering his men into some order and had managed to fight his way to a clear retreat. He had already watched one wing of Berbers manage to fight their way out, and now the other was doing the same. It looked like a fair portion of the army would escape.

It did not matter. He knew that another day, all would be chased down and another battle would crush them yet further. They had done well enough with minimal losses, and that had been part of the confidential plan between himself and George - not to get too involved unless necessary. Roderic owed them his throne since the Romans had been instrumental in turning the battle. That was what counted, and he could congratulate himself upon a bargain that would yield great awards.

Julian thanked God as he managed to escape the clutches of the trap that had so nearly destroyed his army. Ahead of him, he could see Tariq and Tarif retreating in fairly good order. He was fairly certain they were thanking God too. His soldiers were managing to do so in a slightly more disorganised fashion, but the entire army owed their escape to Julian’s Visigothic cavalry which had butchered a way through Roderic’s admittedly courageous men. Despite the seriousness of the defeat and his lamentable situation in terms of his plans, the war was not yet lost. The bulk of the army had escaped, and could fight another day. And when Musa’s troops arrived, then they would have overwhelming force. Yet Julian’s ever crafty mind was thinking of what else he could do to alter the balance of power. His mind came back to the idea of sending emissaries to Agila and see if some sort of deal could be reached with him. Then Roderic – that treacherous scum he reminded himself – would be caught in a pincer from north and south, and no amount of help would save him.

Tariq was still stunned by what had happened, as he led his men from the field, yet he did not blame Julian. Who could have imagined a Roman army would be there after all? He was worried, it was true. The Caliph would not be happy that he was fighting Romans without his approval. That could start a war across both Empires. Yet, the prize was Iberia, and Musa’s large force would surely be able to secure it once they had combined together. And he knew the Caliph desired Iberia greatly. He too wondered about the missive that had been sent to him. Turning, he glanced at Tarif, whose face was covered in blood, a sword had obviously gashed him there - whether Roman or Visigoth, only a closer examination could tell. Tarif returned the glance, and it didn’t take much for each to know the same thoughts were on each other’s minds.


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Far across the deserts, oases and lands of Africa, into the coasts of the Levant, a rider, one of many in a great link stretching across the vastness of the Caliphate, made all speed to Damascus. He was not far from his destination and he held the missive that Musa, Tariq and Tarif were all so concerned about.


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Near the southern Pillar of Hercules, more and more ships and men massed. It would only be a matter of time before Musa felt satisfied that he had enough to set sail with to Iberia. As he gazed down at the large assemblage of the Caliph’s forces, he looked back toward Septum. The local garrison, who had been loyal to Julian, had been joined by his own men, and now the banner of the Prophet flew from it. It was no longer a secret it was now part of the Caliphate. At least, not to those assembled here and the inhabitants of the outpost. There had been some trouble in the streets of course, but his troops had seen to that. He planned to move more of his men and their families into the fortress city. Over a period of time he planned that it would become less Roman and Visigothic, and more of a Berber and Arab city. He was fairly confident that it could resist any Roman or Visigoth attempt to take it. He believed he had time before any of their forces could muster such an assault.

Little could he know that Justinian’s orders had already left Constantinople and were even now racing to Sicily and would very soon result in a force despatched towards the distant outpost.


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*A future fictional character born into existence due to butterflies


Here's the next part. Hope you enjoy it.

And of course, votes for the story in the finals of the Turtledoves are more than welcome here. Make Justinian happy. ;)


Sargon
 
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Hello. My congratulations on an in-depth timeline here. I am a reader of the forums for some time but I finally decided to register and take part.

I would like to pinpoint some inaccuracies in the timeline, which could be considered ASB. Namely, when it comes to Byzantine coinage rejected by the Arabs. I am sorry if this has been pinpointed before, because I have not read all the pages yet.

While it sounds as if it is making sense for the Arabs to reject the currency of "the followers of a false prophet" and thus "hurt their economy" there are two factors that have been totally overlooked. First, and least, the Byzantine economy would be hurt as well, as they would be deprived from an enormous market themselves.

Secondly, and most importantly, Jesus is not considered a false prophet by Islam. He is recognised as a valid one, but simply not the last prophet (who is Muhammad for Muslims) and not the Messiah. Therefore they would have no reason to reject Byzantine coinage for featuring one of their prophets; instead, if anything, it could make them even welcome it for that reason.
 
Sargon

Great timing. Just making a last check before turning in.

Good story although feinting a flight with relatively poorly trained troops, especially against armies with a lot of cavalry is very risky. Especially if they have to break from combat. Especially at that time most casualties in battles occurred when a force turned its back to flee. Not a tactic in those circumstances I would have been brave enough to go for.

Might also have been a bit generous to the defeated. With their forces in disorder and in a relatively limited valley with the Romans attacking behind them I would probably have expected at least one wing of the Berbers to be virtually destroyed. Unless the force actually broke out through Rodric's reassembled troops, which it sounds like to a degree.

Love the line "what could only be described as highly prejudiced intent ":D:D

Julian has got himself into a hell of a mess and also I thing the avalanche is just about unstoppable now in terms of avoiding a big war. With Roman forces fighting Muslims in Iberia, a much larger attack coming up and a Roman fortress surrendered by treachery there is going to be mayhem. Even with modern communications to avoid confusion I find it difficult for the Caliph to pull back his forces now without losing a lot of face and support while Justinian's temper is likely go really blow.

Great to see this back.

Steve
 

Sargon

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Hello. My congratulations on an in-depth timeline here. I am a reader of the forums for some time but I finally decided to register and take part.

I would like to pinpoint some inaccuracies in the timeline, which could be considered ASB. Namely, when it comes to Byzantine coinage rejected by the Arabs. I am sorry if this has been pinpointed before, because I have not read all the pages yet.

While it sounds as if it is making sense for the Arabs to reject the currency of "the followers of a false prophet" and thus "hurt their economy" there are two factors that have been totally overlooked. First, and least, the Byzantine economy would be hurt as well, as they would be deprived from an enormous market themselves.

Secondly, and most importantly, Jesus is not considered a false prophet by Islam. He is recognised as a valid one, but simply not the last prophet (who is Muhammad for Muslims) and not the Messiah. Therefore they would have no reason to reject Byzantine coinage for featuring one of their prophets; instead, if anything, it could make them even welcome it for that reason.

Thanks for your post and the analysis - most welcome. :)

Well, according to my sources which include translations of chronicles and are thus primary in nature, notably those of Theophanes and Nichephorus, as well as works by Constantine VII Porphyrogentius it did indeed have an effect upon their economy. However, if you'd like to provide original sources that contradict those, I'd be interested and happy to know more.

Historically that is exactly what Justinian II did. He did introduce such coins being the first to illustrate the image of Christ, and it did cause trouble and anger in the court of the Caliph because it was a human image, and as you know such images are not allowed to be depicted in Islamic art. Even if it had been an image of Muhammed, it would have met the same reaction, or perhaps an even worse one. That is not something I have made up. I would direct you to Professor Constance Head's excellent book for more information regarding the coinage.

When I refer to Followers of the False Prophet, I am referring to those following Muhammed NOT Jesus in the context of the story. Just to clear that up since it looks like you got the wrong impression there.


Sargon
 
Bizarre, I was under the impression that only Muhammad's face is not allowed to be depicted and all... I guess I'll have to do more research on Islam, but still, I do not know whether printing the face of Jesus on coins would be a sufficient motive for the Arabs (or the Byzantines for that matter) to stop trading with each other. Remember that trade is not done by the Caliph's or the Emperor's courtiers, but by merchants, who are most likely driven by profit first, and beliefs second. Of course as long as the profit does apply.

Concerning both economies being hurt, I think it is a logical conclusion of what happens when two powers stop trading with each other. Now, depending on the relationship, one will be hurt more than the other; one of the two might even be hurt in such a miniscule way, that there will be no overall difference. I guess that, in the end, to see whether either side benefits from not trading with the other at all, we must find an estimate of the volume of trade between the two powers in this historical era.
 
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